Despite slow starts, Trey Mancini, Jesse Winker and Josh Donaldson still have value.
We are just about a month into the fantasy baseball season. There’s a long way to go, but it’s frustrating when your studs aren’t performing like studs. Though there are some players that are already showing cause for concern, here are three guys you should exercise patience with. If you don’t have these guys on your roster, they are also players you should consider trading for while there is still value.
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- Trey Mancini (1B/DH), BAL
There were a few concerns about Mancini coming into the season. First, how would the new fences at Camden affect the offense for the Orioles in general. Second, having recently dealt with a cancer scare, there could also be concerns about his general health and playing time. As far as health is concerned, Mancini has already seen 76 at-bats, so playing time isn’t an issue. As far as the fences are concerned, it’s possible they are partly responsible for his lack of home runs this year. Mancini has one long ball on the season, and it was hit at home. However, he would have four home runs already if he had played all his games at five other ballparks: Dodger Stadium, Fenway, Citifield, Great American Ball Park or American Family Field.
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Perhaps what is most interesting about Mancini this season: Even though he is off to a slow start, batting only .224 with one home run and five runs scored, Statcast says his expected batting average is .322 based on his quality of contact. Mancini has a 53.4% hard hit rate this season (top 9% of the league) and he’s barreling the ball at the best rate of his career - 12.1%.
There are 162 games in a Major League Baseball season. I expect Mancini only to go up from here. His luck has to turn.
2. Jesse Winker (OF), SEA
I wasn’t a big fan of Winker going to Seattle and leaving Great American Ball Park, but I didn’t expect him to fall off this dramatically. He was the centerpiece of the trade with the Reds, but so far it’s Eugenio Suarez who’s had the bigger payoff. That all should improve, though, provided Winker can stay healthy.
The Mariners offense has been one of the nicest surprises this season. They are top 10 in runs scored this season, while having one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league. A big part of that is Jesse Winker, who is only striking out 12% of the time (top 8% of the league); however, it isn’t translating into batting average. Winker is batting an abysmal .197. Even more disconcerting is that Winker is walking at an 18.1% rate (top 4%), and it still isn’t translating into great counting stats.
Winker has already shown good max exit velocity and his power looks to be a good fit for his home ballpark. Though he has no home runs on the season, he would have two if all of his games were played at his home T-Mobile park.
Will he have another 25 home run season? Probably not. But, with his hitting discipline, Winker can only go up from here. With 162 games to play, his luck has to turn.
3. Josh Donaldson (3B), NYY
Donaldson has two home runs on the season and is batting .208. Needless to say, Yankees fans and fantasy managers expected more from the off-season acquisition. The Yankees are currently the hottest team in baseball, on a 10-game win streak with the fifth-most runs scored in the league.
Donaldson’s underlying metrics say he’s due to join the hit parade soon. His average exit velocity is in the top 5% of the league, he has a 45% hard-hit rate, and he is patiently taking his walks, which should translate to runs scored. With warmer summer months ahead, it’s too soon to give up on Donaldson.
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