Twelve of the top fantasy baseball gurus share their draft strategy and analyze the picks.
On Tuesday, March 22, Sports Illustrated hosted an experts fantasy baseball mock draft on RT Sports.
Some of the brightest minds in fantasy sports drafted alongside myself and Shawn Childs in this standard 5X5 roto league, 12-team, 23- round draft.
Here are the participants, in draft order:
- Scott Engel - The Game Day
- Greg Jewett- The Athletic
- Shawn Childs - Sports Illustrated
- Darik Buchar- NFBC
- Michael Salfino - The Athletic
- Chris Meaney- FTN
- Jeff Erickson - Rotowire
- Scott Pianowski - Yahoo
- Ryan Hallam- Fantasy Alarm
- Jennifer Piacenti- Sports Illustrated
- Jeff Zimmerman - Fangraphs
- Matt Williams- NBC Sports Edge
With most of MLB’s big free agents signed and a week of spring training in the books, here’s how the board turned out:
I asked the participants to break it down in their own words. What was their favorite pick? What was their least favorite pick? Did anyone snipe them? And finally, I asked everyone to pick a winner.
Draft Strategy
But first, each participant gave me a glimpse into their strategy”
The Game Day’s Scott Engel:
“I had the No. 1 pick, so I knew I would have to be patient on the 2/3 swing. First base is deeper and I could not wait too long for a closer that definitely had the job, and needed at least a decent No. 1 catcher. I was not going to get caught up in any positional runs and focused on overall stat categories and filling positions as needed while adjusting on the fly. That was my intended approach.”
The Athletic’s Greg Jewett:
“My strategy going into the draft was to build a solid foundation with stolen bases, target pitching in rounds 3-to-8 and then fill in with power upside.”
Timothy T. Ludwig/USA TODAY Sports
Sports Illustrated’s Shawn Childs:
“Once I selected Vlad Guerrero (third overall), I decided to work on building a high average/power base with my offense. In a 12-team league, finding steals should be easier. On the pitching side, I was at the mercy of draft flow and reading the ADPs and other drafters. I wanted to have two shots at saves while looking for value in starting pitching.”
The NFBC’s Darik Buchar:
“I didn't really have any set strategy going in, other than grabbing guys that fell in my mind. I watch/moderate more 12-team drafts than anyone on earth, so I pretty much knew what was coming. I wanted two of my top 10 closers, and grabbed (Emmanuel) Clase and (Jordan) Romano when I felt the price was right. Jose Ramirez was an easy choice at No. 4 with Trea Turner gone (yes, he's always gone by No. 4). In 12-team formats, I love grabbing one ace early (Brandon Woodruff) and then taking highly-skilled SP the rest of the way, especially those who others are cautious with: Carlos Rodon, Clayton Kershaw, Mike Clevinger, Stephen Strasburg, Waino, etc. … If I get half-seasons of greatness out of all of them, it's game over. I can flop the roster over all season long in 12-team formats.”
The Athletic’s Michael Salfino:
“Like every draft, I try to get speed, saves and especially power. Not easy to do. You have to get a ton of speed with your first two hitters. Thus, Shohei Ohtani and Jose Ramirez. This is the first time I drafted Ohtani. It's such an advantage that he goes into your pitcher spot even though he's going to UT for you. That allows you to draft an extra hitter. In other words, he's not even sucking up your utility, at least in this format/on this site.”
Rotowire’s Jeff Erickson:
“When I'm drafting in the middle of the draft, I try to focus on finding perceived values rather than focusing on any particular strategy. The first round helps choose my adventure as far as my team-building goes. If Bo Bichette fell to me at 7, I would have probably looked for pitching in the second or third rounds. Alas, he did not, so I started with Gerrit Cole and then followed with a string of hitters. I purposefully waited to fill my last three pitcher spots, as I really like a lot of the SPs in the 200-250 range overall.”
Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski:
“I was open to having an ace in the first or second round if the right name fell, or perhaps Lucas Giolito in the third. Short of that, I was going to load up on hitting and see if I could cobble together a pitching staff I liked. Ultimately, I missed Walker Buehler in the second or Giolito in the third, so I wound up with a good offense and a sketchy staff. Most projections will throw rocks at my team. But if you’re going to have volatility anywhere, have it with pitching, I guess.”
Fantasy Alarm’s Ryan Hallam:
“I rarely go into drafts with a plan because you never know what is going to happen in front of you. Especially since I had the ninth overall pick, the eight people in front of you could leave you something that you weren't expecting. However, with a group of this level, I pretty much knew that wasn't going to happen. Since I am not a big Bryce Harper guy, my choice was Freddie Freeman or a starter. Several drafts I have been in have shied away from loading up on pitching early, so I went with a stud at a fairly shallow position. I also rarely draft a high-end catcher even in two catcher leagues, and I have not been chasing saves. The bullpens have been getting more volatile by the year, and 2022 promises to be no different. The amount of closers that went early in this draft astounded me and only solidified that I wasn't going to use an early pick on one since basically all of the solid ones were gone by Round 7.”
Charles LeClaire/USA TODAY Sports
Sports Illustrated’s Jen Piacenti:
“I went into this draft with the idea of targeting 5-category players for my first couple of picks, and then getting some pitching in rounds 3-5. I took a risk with Ronald Acuna in the second round – assuming he will be DHing in April -- but if you’re going to take a risk, take one on one of the best players in baseball, right? I ended up with Robbie Ray, Charlie Morton and Justin Verlander as my first three SPs after taking hitters in the first three rounds, and I am completely O.K. with that.”
NBC Sports Edge’s Matt Williams:
“Regardless of the draft position, I like to build a balanced team. However, being in the 1.12 spot made it more important to avoid positional runs if possible. I wanted to lock up some power, because I tend to draft "so" balanced in power and speed that I tend to actually fall short on power. I think I did a good job of being aware of that in this mock. Overall, just trying to be aware of the stats I need to hit my goals and keeping an eye on the player pool to make sure I can get there.”
Best Picks
Next up, I asked everyone to talk about their favorite or least favorite picks, and also if they had favorite picks on other teams. Turns out there was a lot of sniping going on in this sharp group…
Engel: There were some good pitching values, but I really liked getting Triston McKenzie in the 17th. Tons of strikeout upside and he really cut down on the walks later in the 2021 season. I am not crazy about Gleyber Torres, but will hope for a rebound where I landed him in the 14th.
Really like Jeff Erickson's pick of Dylan Carlson (round 11). One of his opponents told me he and his teammates called him the next Carlos Beltran when they played against him last season. I never get sniped because I am always ready with groups of players at every turn.
Pianowski: Adalberto Mondesi isn’t for everyone, but he’s an interesting play to win pick at 7.08. If he manages even 125 games, he’ll lead the majors in steals. He’s not without power, either. Injury risk? Well, he played a full season (if that matters to you) two years ago.
I was not thrilled to have a staff captained by Lance Lynn, someone I’ve been fading elsewhere. And Ketel Marte in the eighth round was one of those “no one looks interesting right now” picks. Most shrewd managers can easily replicate Marte’s stats with a later pick.
Erickson: My favorite pick was Luis Garcia in the 14th round. I'm willing to snag him as early as 120 when I need another high-K starter, but didn't have as urgent a need here.
I got sniped (sort of) by Darik on Emmanuel Clase – I should have taken him in the sixth round but didn't find him far enough down in the default queue. Thus I was forced to go a little ugly with my closers as Jordan Romano also went off the board before my next pick, and settled for Taylor Rogers and Corey Knebel. Had we gone with reserve picks, at least two slots would have gone to reliever specs.
Hallam: My favorite pick was probably Nick Castellanos in the fifth round. I needed to start building my outfield since we need five and I think his value probably even goes up slightly in Philly. Not only does he go from one really small stadium in Cincinnati to another in Philadelphia, but the lineup could be even better with Harper, Schwarber and the rest. He should provide me stats similar to guys who went two rounds before. The other was Jack Flaherty in Round 19. There are some question marks about his injury, but Round 19???? I even commented in the draft chat, "He's not out forever, right?" Sure, there is risk here, but the guy is a top 25 pitcher when healthy on a good team and it was the 19th round.
My least favorite pick was Austin Meadows. Not only is he injury prone, but he is a batting average suck, and we know Tampa loves to platoon most guys. I probably would have been better off with the two Tigers (Robbie Grossman or Akil Baddoo), who went a couple of picks after that. Meadows has some talent but it feels like the best days are behind him.
One of my favorite picks was Shawn Childs with Luis Severino in the 12th round and Jeff Erickson with Matt Chapman in the 13th. Severino only pitched once last year and is coming off a major injury, but the talent is no doubt there and the fact that he was able to return at all last season is a big plus for me on a team that you know will give him run support. I was all set to take Chapman in that round, but alas he didn't make it back to me. Sure, the batting average was awful last season, but it had never been that low before and the move to Toronto is a huge plus not only for being in a better batting order, but more games in small AL East ballparks and getting out of Oakland is a nice upgrade. I think Chapman has a great season.
Jewett: Favorite pick – Kyle Schwarber. I think his new ballpark and lineup will help him this year. There's 40-home run potential at his price point … second favorite: needed some power upside late and Julio Rodriguez from Seattle represents terrific potential where he went in this draft. If he breaks camp with the team, look out.
Least favorite pick- Josh Hader. I should have taken Tim Anderson, then followed the plan from rounds 3-8 listed above. He would have added a strong base of steals and average so I did not need to take Bryan Reynolds, who is not a bad player, but Anderson will hit in a much more robust lineup
Someone else's best pick: Shawn Childs sniped me three times: Yordan Alvarez, Daulton Varsho and Pete Alonso.
Salfino: Favorite/least favorite pick: Hyun-Jin Ryu was my personal favorite pick. He's a year away from being a Cy Young finalist. His ERA from 2019-21 is 3.00 and his WHIP 1.10. He had a tough year but, man, the bottom fell out. He's on a good offensive team and he's a finesse lefty and strike thrower, a type that ages well, certainly better than age 34.
Someone else’s best pick: Seiya Suzuki (Meaney, round 13) was the best pick in the draft. He was so buried in the queue that I forgot about him. I was only really sniped once and it was in the second round when Meaney took Jacob deGrom one pick before me. He's the No. 1 pitcher EASILY. As for the worst pick, everyone is smart and I'm no smarter than the room. But if you're asking me a high pick I would not have made, it's Shane Bieber at No. 25. Shoulders worry me. I know I'm the guy who loves deGrom and it's a little hypocritical.
Childs: Logan Gilbert was my favorite pick. I have him as my breakout pitcher of the year, and I didn't have to overpay for him in the draft.
Chris Sale was my least favorite. With no clear timetable for his return, I painted myself into a corner by cheating starting pitching, forcing me to add him as a potential discounted ace.
Someone else’s best pick: When Bobby Witt was walked down to me in the eighth round, I thought he was a good fit for my team build (needing more steals) despite already owning two shortstops (Wander Franco and Fernando Tatis). I wanted to use him as a cover for Tatis while knowing I could also slide Tatis to the outfield. Michael Salfino snatched him up two picks before me.
Piacenti: My favorite pick was probably Gary Sanchez in round 13 as my first catcher. Am I a Gary Sanchez fan? Not really. But the potential power upside with him at DH in Minnesota just feels too good to pass up that late in a draft at the scarce position. Sanchez was a top pick only a few years ago, and I am gambling a change of scenery will be a boon. My least favorite pick was feeling like I had to take Aroldis Chapman in round 7. It’s not a bad pick, I just hate that I felt the pressure of the run on closers.
Favorite pick of someone else’s: I had Matt Chapman in my queue, but Erickson gobbled him up just a few picks before me in Round 13. I guess the good news is, I got Gary Sanchez, but I sure was drooling at the chance to get a piece of Matt Chapman bounce-back season with the Jays.
Buchar: My favorite pick is Byron Buxton in the fourth. If you believe he is good enough to go fourth or fifth round, then you also realize he would be an easy first-rounder with 145 games. In 12-team formats, I am all about risk and shooting for the moon. If he stays healthy (I know, never does), he's a top 5 player in fantasy.
My least favorite pick NOW is Nellie Cruz (round 13). Been one of my favorites forever, but I thought I could sleep Gary Sanchez one more round … wanted him bad! He's going to DH a lot for my Twins. So Piacenti’s pick (sort of) sniped me even though it was still a ways to go before my next pick. Well done, Jen.
WIlliams: My favorite pick is probably Hunter Renfroe (round 14), actually. I wanted to lock in some power and I am excited about what he can do in Milwaukee this season. As far as my least favorite, that's easy. Gregory Soto (round 22). Saves are saves, and the price was appropriate, but still not a fan of the ratio dive.
Someone else’s best pick: I think one of the best picks of the draft was by Jen Piacenti in the 14th with Tyler Mahle. I know people are scared of his ceiling being crushed by the Great American Ballpark, but he struck out 210 batters last season. A great value in my opinion.
Who Drafted Best?
Finally, winning teams aren’t drafted, they are managed. Baseball is a long season, and the week-to-week waiver-wire transactions and smart trades are what wins championships.
That being said, it’s more fun if we pick a winner! I asked everyone to tell me whose team they liked best, and they couldn’t choose their own!
Williams: Every team has its strengths and weaknesses, but I like the upside of Jeff Zimmerman's team.
Buchar: I like a lot of the teams, but if forced to pick one, I would probably lean with Greg Jewett's squad. Turner-Machado-Hader is a fantastic start, solid staff, and Reynolds, Rosario, McMahon and Belt picks were all great at those points of the draft.
Childs: Scott Engel’s team.
Jewett: I like Matt Williams’s team, and it felt like every time I decided on a player, whoever I did not take, Jeff Erickson did after.
Erickson: Matt Williams did very well on the wheel, especially starting off with Burnes, Tucker, Hendriks, Merrifield, Springer and Lindor. That's a roster construction I like quite a bit.
Pianowski: I see a bunch of teams that look like plausible contenders, but let’s go with Chris Meaney. I like the pace of his pitching construction, and I would have taken Bo Bichette second or third overall. I also liked several of Michael Salfino’s value picks (Ryan Pressly 5.05, Javier Baez 7.05, Eddie Rosario especially at 17.05).
Piacenti: I have to vote for my colleague, Shawn Childs. His hitting is well-balanced, and I love the values for pitching he found late.
Engel: Jennifer Piacenti will win the league. Her draft was well thought out and progressed nicely, and was daring in some spots.
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