Fantasy Data: Quarterback Target Tendencies

Jul 19, 2022

Knowing which positions are targeted the most by different QBs can help with draft decisions.

The quarterback position is the most important in the world of professional football. He has the ball in his hand on the majority of offensive snaps and his knowledge, skill set and decision-making ultimately determine how well or poorly an offense will perform. That also means he is integral in the production of points for our fantasy teams.

As a result, it makes sense for us to know his tendencies. What position does he target the most in the pass attack? Does he like to take chances downfield? The answers to these questions are important to his draft value and the value of players around him. So, let’s look at the positions our field generals targeted the most (and least) in 2021.

Note: Quarterbacks in this research started a minimum of 12 games last season.

Running Backs – Most Targets

1. Matt Ryan, Falcons (26.1%): Ryan targeted Cordarrelle Patterson and Mike Davis a combined 127 times last season. His new backs, Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines, were targeted a combined 108 times by Carson Wentz with the Colts last season. That total should be better in 2022 and could slightly elevate Hines late in drafts.

2. Sam Darnold, Panthers (23.9%): It’s no surprise that Darnold targeted his backs highly since Christian McCaffrey is on the roster. He averaged nearly six targets in his seven games. If you’re wondering, Baker Mayfield (who I think will start for Carolina in Week 1), ranked ninth in his percentage of pass attempts to running backs (19.6%).

3. Jared Goff, Lions (23.5%): Goff has one of the best pass-catching backs in D’Andre Swift, who had 78 targets alone last season. Swift and Jamaal Williams had a combined 106 targets. This was a new trend for Goff, who actually targeted the position just 12% of the time (third-lowest total) during what was his final campaign in Los Angeles.

4. Taylor Heinicke, Football Team (23.3%): Heinicke won’t be the Commanders’ No. 1 option this season, but it’s notable that OC Scott Turner’s offense likes to target backs. In fact, Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic were targeted a combined 105 times. Wentz, Washington’s new top field general, ranked sixth in targeting backs (21.9%).

5. Derek Carr, Raiders (23.2%): Carr had to throw to his running backs more often last season, as he didn’t have a true No. 1 wideout and Darren Waller missed time due to injuries. That won’t be the case in 2022, however, as the Raiders traded for Davante Adams and will have Waller back. Expect his percentage of targets to backs to decline.

6. Carson Wentz, Colts
7. Mac Jones, Patriots
8. Jalen Hurts, Eagles
9. Baker Mayfield, Browns
10. Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers

Running Backs – Fewest Targets

1. Matthew Stafford, Rams (12.6%): The Rams ran 11 personnel more than any other team in the league last season, so wide receivers were targeted highly in the offense. Stafford was also without starter Cam Akers for most of the year, and the backfield duo of Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel had just 73 combined targets all season.

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2. Russell Wilson, Seahawks (13.8%): Wilson’s percentage of targets to backs was down nearly 4% compared to 2020, which was due in part to injuries. Chris Carson saw just four games, and Rashaad Penny isn’t much of a pass catcher. Now in Denver, he’ll target runners in the 15%-18% range based on past tendencies of Nathanial Hackett.

3. Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (14.2%): Tagovailoa wasn’t big into throwing to his backs last season, as Myles Gaskin was the lone runner with more than 12 targets. Chase Edmonds should command a bigger share, but how much will Tua target him or other backs with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki on the team’s roster?

4. Josh Allen, Bills (14.2%): Allen hasn’t targeted runners very much in the last two seasons, posting a 12.6% rate in 2020 and a 14.2% rate in 2021. The Bills attempting to sign J.D. McKissic and drafting James Cook could signal an increase in opportunities this season, but I still wouldn’t expect a ton of catches from Cook or Devin Singletary.

5. Lamar Jackson, Ravens (14.7%): Like Allen, Jackson hasn’t targeted his top runners much in the last two years. In fact, Devonta Freeman led the team’s backfield in that department last season with a modest 42. J.K. Dobbins could see slightly more than that considering the Ravens’ questions at receiver, but he won’t have big totals.

6. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
7. Justin Fields, Bears
8. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
9. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
10. Kyler Murray, Cardinals

Wide Receivers – Most Targets

1. Matthew Stafford, Rams (71%): Again, the Rams ran 11 personnel more than any other team in the league last season. As a result, it’s no surprise that Stafford targeted his wideouts more than any quarterback. Cooper Kupp averaged 11.2 targets per game, and Allen Robinson will absorb most of the 7.7 targets a game Robert Woods averaged.

2. Josh Allen, Bills (68.1%): The Bills ranked third in terms of offensive plays out of 11 personnel, which equated to 443 targets for wide receivers. Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley left behind a combined 184 targets, which is good news for the duo of Gabriel Davis and Jamison Crowder. The latter could end up being a late-round value.

3. Joe Burrow, Bengals (65.4%): When you consider the talent the Bengals have at wide receiver, this should be a surprise to no one. Their offense ran 11 personnel 802 times last season, which tied Washington for the fifth-most. With Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd all back, look for Burrow’s target party to wideouts to continue.

4. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (63.8%): Big Ben threw the ball over 600 times last season, and most of those attempts went to wideouts. Will that remain the same with Mitchell Trubisky? The last time Trubisky was a starter (2020), he threw to his receivers 61.3% of the time. Still, I’m downgrading Dionate Johnson and Chase Claypool slightly.

5. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (63.3%): Lawrence had two receivers, Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault, with more than 100 targets last season. No other wideout had more than 51. High-priced wideout Christian Kirk is a lock to see well over 100 targets in 2022, but don’t be surprised if this percentage drops a bit with Travis Etienne back.

6. Zach Wilson, Jets
7. Russell Wilson, Seahawks
8. Kirk Cousins, Vikings
9. Kyler Murray, Cardinals
10. Aaron Rodgers, Packers

Wide Receivers – Fewest Targets

1. Matt Ryan, Falcons (43.2%): This shouldn’t come as a surprise, as Atlanta had one of the league’s worst receiving corps last season. Ryan is now in Indianapolis, where Wentz threw to his wideouts 54.5% of the time (ninth fewest). That total should rise with Ryan under center, especially with a rising superstar like Michael Pittman Jr.

2. Baker Mayfield, Browns (47.4%): The Browns ran 12 and 13 personnel a combined 405 times last season, so Mayfield not throwing to his wide receivers isn’t a surprise. By comparison, Sam Darnold threw to his wideouts 56.9% of the time. I’d expect Mayfield’s percentage to rise to that level in 2022, assuming he’s Carolina’s starter.

3. Jalen Hurts, Eagles (48.8%): A.J. Brown truthers won’t like this stat, as Hurts had just one wideout (DeVonta Smith) see more than 62 targets in the offense last season. The Eagles led the league in run percentage over the final 11 weeks, but that should change with Brown now in the mix. Still, I’m concerned about him as a No. 1 wideout.

4. Jared Goff, Lions (50.4%): Goff threw to his running backs a ton last season, and he also had a strong tight end in T.J. Hockenson for part of the year. As a result, it’s not a shock that he had a low percentage of pass attempts that went to wideouts. That should change with the additions of veteran D.J. Chark and rookie Jameson Williams, however.

5. Derek Carr, Raiders (50.5%): Carr will likely see a major leap in his percentage of passes thrown to wideouts this season, as the Raiders added Adams via trade. He had thrown to his tight ends quite often in the past, but he didn’t have a wideout like Adams in the offensive attack. Look for Waller’s target share to decline this season.

6. Teddy Bridgewater, Broncos
7. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
8. Mac Jones, Patriots
9. Carson Wentz, Colts
10. Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins

Tight Ends – Most Targets

1. Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (28.9%): Tagovailoa will see a major decline in his percentage of passes thrown to tight end this season, as the Dolphins added Hill and Cedric Wilson to an offense that already boasts Waddle. That’s bad news for Mike Gesicki, who figures to be more of a borderline No. 1 or 2 fantasy tight end this season.

2. Baker Mayfield, Browns (28.7%): As I mentioned earlier, the Browns used two or three tight ends at the same time 405 times last season. That’s why Mayfield has such a high number of pass attempts to the position. Now in Carolina, that total is destined to fall considerably as he’ll focus more on getting the ball to McCaffrey and his wideouts.

3. Matt Ryan, Falcons (27.7%): Ryan’s favorite target last season was Kyle Pitts, so his position in the top five isn’t a surprise. In 2020, before he had Pitts, Ryan was sixth in pass attempts to wideouts and seventh in targeting tight ends. Look for him to be more in tune with Pittman Jr. and his wideouts during his first season in Indianapolis.

4. Lamar Jackson, Ravens (26.2%): When your tight end is also your most productive receiver, you’re going to make sure he sees targets. That’s the obvious case with the Ravens, who saw Mark Andrews record a career season in 2021. Jackson was also fifth in pass attempts to tight ends in 2020, and that trend will no doubt continue once again.

5. Justin Fields, Bears (25.9%): A tight end can oftentimes be a rookie quarterback’s best friend, and that was the case with Fields last season. He threw to the position 83 times, including 60 to Cole Kmet. With many questions at wide receiver behind Darnell Mooney, Fields could be targeting Kmet even more in 2022. He’s a potential sleeper.

6. Teddy Bridgewater, Broncos
7. Jalen Hurts, Eagles
8. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
9. Tom Brady, Buccaneers
10. Mac Jones, Patriots

Tight Ends – Least Targets

1. Josh Allen, Bills (12.5%): The Bills ranked dead last in running 12 personnel (81 offensive plays), but that could change with the addition of O.J. Howard. Still, it also means that Dawson Knox could and likely will be very touchdown dependent for fantasy managers. He’ll be a borderline No. 1 option, but TD regression is imminent.

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2. Sam Darnold, Panthers (14%): This is all about personnel, as the Panthers had a nice group of wideouts but didn’t have much at tight end last season. Mayfield was in a system that used the position far more often in Cleveland, but I still don’t see Tommy Tremble as more than a late-round flier in redrafts. He won’t be picked in most leagues.

3. Zach Wilson, Jets (14.1%): The Jets had a weak group of tight ends last season, so Wilson didn’t target the position much. That should change in 2022 though, as the Jets added both C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin as free agents. Wilson’s pass attempts to the position will rise slightly as a result, but neither will make much of a fantasy impact.

4. Joe Burrow, Bengals (14.6%): Fantasy managers who might be excited about the addition of Hayden Hurst might want to cool their jets. Burrow threw the ball to tight ends just 83 times last season, most of them to Uzomah. So while Hurst will pop a few times this year, chances are he won’t re-emerge into a consistent fantasy starter.

5. Matthew Stafford, Rams (15.5%): The Rams were fourth-to-last in running 12 personnel, and their top tight end (Tyler Higbee) was targeted just 85 times last season. With Akers back at 100% and the addition of Robinson at wide receiver, I’d be shocked if Higbee saw much of an increase in opportunities in the Rams offense in 2022.

6. Kirk Cousins, Vikings
7. Taysom Hill, Saints
8. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
9. Kyler Murray, Cardinals
10. Davis Mills, Texans

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Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click here to read all his articles here on SI Fantasy. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram for your late-breaking fantasy news and the best analysis in the business!

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