Highlighting fantasy players who are moving up and down draft boards.
I pulled down two sets of data from the National Fantasy Football Championship to get a feel for the changing ADPs over the past three months after the 2022 NFL Draft. This first was from May 1st to June 24th in their 12-team online championship event (22 drafts). I compared those results with the ADPs for the player over the previous month. If someone wasn’t drafted early, I used a baseline of 200 as their starting point in the second data point. Here are the top risers and fallers at each skill position over this span:
QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Faller – Down 12.2 spots)
Most quarterbacks with QB1 status entering 2022 have slid over the last month in drafts as drafters have tried to improve the front end of their roster at running back and wide receiver. Prescott lost more than a round of value despite no significant changes in the health of his receiving corps. He should regain some of his lost production in the run game with an offseason to get healthy. His most important questions come at WR2 (Michael Gallup) and WR3 (Jalen Tolbert).
QB Matt Ryan, IND (Riser – Up 13.9 spots)
The Colts have questions about the depth of their receiving corps behind Michael Pittman, but the fantasy world started to take a shine to Matt Ryan over the previous month. Ryan consistently attempted more than 600 passes with the Falcons, helping his floor in passing yards. Indianapolis has a top-tier running back, and their offense runs through Jonathan Taylor. Despite his improvement, Ryan still ranks as the 19th quarterback off the table in 2022.
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RB Rachaad White, TB (Riser – Up 16.0 spots)
Even before Leonard Fournette reported to camp overweight, White was creeping up draft boards. His reports were positive in the early OTAs, pointing to him starting as the Bucs RB2 in Week 1. The key to White keeping long-term snaps is keeping Tom Brady upright by picking up incoming blitzers. His overall game has a three-down upside if the opportunity knocks.
RB J.K. Dobbins, BAL (Faller – Down 13.8 spots)
I sense some cat-and-mouse with the status of Dobbins for Week 1. The rumor on the street suggested that he may not be ready in mid-July, thus sending his ADP spiraling downward about a round. Dobbins has enough time to be in the starting lineup on opening day and has worked hard to regain his health. Unfortunately, Baltimore placed him on the PUP list on July 22nd, forcing the fantasy world to pump the brakes on his draft value. He looks more plausible with a new fifth-round ADP (49.1), and I’m willing to buy him at a discount.
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WR Russell Gage, TB (Riser – Up 18.4 spots)
The so-called wise guys in the high-stakes market have recently gravitated toward Gage due to the possible slow start to the year expected from Chris Godwin. Tom Brady helped multiple players with short-area quickness excel in his career in the NFL. Gage's gain in the wide receiver rankings is a direct correlation with the regression of Chris Godwin. Most of the time, in these situations, I'd prefer the discounted player.
WR Chris Godwin, TB (Faller – Down 16.0 spots)Health is the only reason Godwin started regressing in drafts over the past four weeks. His surgery on his torn ACL came in early January, giving him nine months to recover. His timeline falls within a range where he could be productive early in the year, but one must err on the side of caution for a player coming off a significant injury. Nevertheless, Tampa thought enough of him to pay him $60 million for three seasons in March.
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TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Riser – Up 17.2 spots)
It took a couple of months, but the fantasy world has seen the potential for Kmet. I have him on my breakout team that was released in mid-July. He ranks 12th at tight end as the draft season approaches the middle of the summer. Kmet doesn’t play in a great offense, but he appears to be Chicago’s second-best option in the passing game. To earn a higher rank, he must score more touchdowns in 2022.
TE Robert Tonyan (Faller – Down 14.8 spots)
The Packers placed Tonyan on the PUP list on July 22nd, while fantasy drafters started to run for cover when his name pushed up cheat sheets. After a breakout season in 2020 (52/586/11), he muddled his way through eight games last season (18/204/2) before blowing out his left knee. Tonyan has a short resume of success, and a significant injury lowers my expectations. As a result, I’ll fade him in all drafts this year.
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