Senior expert Michael Fabiano discusses the fantasy impact across the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams in the wake of the Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff trade
The 2021 NFL offseason hasn't even started yet, but the football gods have already graced us with a blockbuster trade. The Detroit Lions have agreed to send Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams in exchange for Jared Goff, two future first-round draft picks, and a third-round draft pick. It's quite a haul for the 33-year-old quarterback, who could be the missing piece for the Rams next season and beyond.
So, how does this affect the fantasy football landscape?
Let’s break it down by team and start with Stafford’s new squad, the Rams. Coach Sean McVay’s offense wasn’t nearly as productive in 2020 compared to recent seasons, and this trade seems to indicate that Goff was considered one of the reasons. Stafford, who will be 33 when next season starts, is a big upgrade at the position.
He has eight 4,000-yard passing seasons, including one with over 5,000 yards on his resume. Stafford has also put up 24 or more touchdown passes six times. He was on pace for 38 scoring strikes in 2019 before a back injury ended his season after eight games. Overall, he’s had a lot of success in fantasy football leagues.
Since 2011, Stafford has finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback six times. It might have been seven had he not gone down in 2019, and the loss of his top option in the passing game, Kenny Golladay, hurt his totals (QB16) this past season. His move to Hollywood won't push Stafford into the top 10 at the position, but he will be more attractive as a high-end No. 2 option with top-12 potential.
Stafford's presence in the Rams offense is good news for Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, but I wouldn't expect a monumental statistical leap. Both players are No. 2 wide receivers, and Woods was just outside of the top 12 this past season. It could also be good news for Tyler Higbee, who was a massive disappointment in 2021 but could see more opportunities in the future with Gerald Everett becoming a free agent.
Stafford will also mean good things for Cam Akers in limiting stacked boxes on the line of scrimmage. It's also a positive for Akers in the passing game, making the Florida State product a popular breakout candidate next season.
Now, let’s move to the Motor City.
The Lions are taking a big chance on Goff, who has seen his fantasy point totals drop in each of his last three seasons. He was unreliable and ultimately unstartable in fantasy for most of 2021, and I don't see that changing much in Detroit. At this point, Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr., and Danny Amendola are slated to become free agents, so there are more questions than answers in the passing attack.
Dave Birkett, the Lions beat writer for the Detroit Free Press, told me on my SiriusXM show, Fantasy Dirt, that he doesn’t expect Jones to return to the team in 2021.
Golladay, who missed most of last season due to injuries, could be tagged or could be out. If he remains with the Lions, I will push Golladay back into the No. 2 wide receiver tier and out of the top 10 (where he was in 2020 drafts). Overall, there aren’t any winners in Detroit's offense based on this trade. T.J. Hockenson will remain a top-10 tight end with Goff under center, and D'Andre Swift should push into a bigger role in his second year (which was true before the trade as well). If anything, Swift is in a good spot to see more work as a receiver since the Lions will likely be playing in negative game scripts often in a rebuilding season.
Goff, who I've never been a fan of from a fantasy perspective, will undoubtedly have his share of decent stat lines aided by projected garbage-time points and potential shootouts in the division. Still, he's no more than a No. 2 fantasy quarterback who won't be selected until the late rounds (if at all) in most casual fantasy drafts.
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram for all of the latest breaking fantasy football news and the best analysis in the business!
