Youth reigns supreme at the running back position, but veterans can still rule the roost.
The running back position is physically demanding and punishing, and it can (and will) take its toll on a player’s body. That’s evident in the list of players who have won the NFL’s rushing title over the last 32 years. If you’re into fantasy football, enjoy player props or both, you might want to sit back and continue to read ... and learn.
Since 1990, 20 running backs have combined for the last 32 rushing titles. What do the majority of them have in common? Youth. No, not the two yutes. I said youth!
The NFL’s rushing leader has been 21-23 years old 11 times in the last 32 years. That’s 34%. The top rusher has been 24-26 years old 12 times (38%). That total shrinks to 22% among rushing leaders who were 27-29 years old, and just 6% led the league in rushing yards at age 30 or older. All told, 72% of the rushing leaders were 26 or younger.
Looking at recent data, eight out of the last 10 rushing leaders (since 2012) were 26 or younger. The other two rushing championships went to Adrian Peterson, who won it at 27 in 2012 and at the age of 30 in 2015. He's been an exception to the youth movement.
This trend is unmistakable, and we should use it when we draft our fantasy backs and put down a few bucks on a rushing leader player prop. We find two favorites when we look at the futures on SI Sportsbook. First, Jonathan Taylor is at +500. That’s not a surprise, as he led the NFL with 1,811 rushing yards last year at the age of 22. Based on his age and skill set, JT will be a popular pick to win it once again. That’s not an odd occurrence, either, as a back has won two straight rushing titles five times since 1990.
Derrick Henry (+500) is the other favorite to win the title. He already has a pair of them under his belt (2019. 2020), and he might have won a third last year had he not gotten hurt. Henry is entering his age-28 season, though, so he’d become just the sixth rushing champion at 27 or older in the last two decades. At those odds, I’d pass on King Henry.
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The next four favorites to win the title are Dalvin Cook (+800), Nick Chubb (+800), Joe Mixon (+1200) and Najee Harris (+1200). Cook will be 27, Chubb 26, Mixon 26 and Harris 24. The Steelers runner, who finished fourth in rushing yards as a rookie, might be the best bet based on his age and workload. He accounted for more than 89% of the Steelers' running back carries last season, and their offensive line should be improved.
Next up on the list of favorites are Antonio Gibson (+1600), Elijah Mitchell (+1600), Cam Akers (+1800) and Javonte Williams (+1800). All four runners are 24 or younger, which is a positive based on our research. However, Gibson, Mitchell and Akers could be in committees, and their respective teams haven't has won a rushing title since 1987.
Larry Brown is the last Washington runner to win the title, and that was in 1970. The Niners haven’t had a rushing champ since 1954 (Joe Perry), and Charles White is the last Rams back to win it. That came in 1987 after Eric Dickerson had won three of the previous four seasons. The Broncos have had one winner, Terrell Davis, since 1990.
That brings me to Williams.
Sure, the return of Melvin Gordon puts a damper on his fantasy value and his chances of winning a rushing title. On a positive note, he is 22 years old (like Taylor last season), and strange things tend to happen in the NFL. So, if you want to put down some dough on a young runner who could earn you a nice payday, Williams might be your best bet.
If you’re looking for some big longshots who fit the trend based on age, Rashaad Penny (+3300), Breece Hall (+3500) and A.J. Dillon (+6600) are all worth a roll of the dice.
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Penny (26) led all backs in rushing yards over the final seven weeks of last season, and Chris Carson (neck) has retired. Hall (21) rushed for over 1,400 yards in his final two college seasons, and the Jets have an up-and-coming offensive line. Dillon (24), who led the Packers in carries last season, would be an Aaron Jones injury away from being a true featured back in an offense that could lean on the run more often.
So, remember, when you’re looking for runners with the biggest upside and potential to become the next NFL rushing champion, make sure you lean on the side of youth!
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Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click here to read all his articles here on SI Fantasy. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram for your late-breaking fantasy news and the best analysis in the business!