Buffalo's offense spread the wealth while the Rams offered more questions than answers.
The 2022 NFL season is off and running. One game in, the Bills have quickly established themselves as the Super Bowl favorite, and the Rams offered the ultimate representation of “Super Bowl hangover.” A lot happened in Buffalo’s 31-10 win at SoFi Stadium, and we certainly saw enough to make a few knee-jerk fantasy reactions:
Josh Allen is ridiculous
So in my fantasy league with old college buddies, there’s this one guy who’s not really a big football fan and certainly not a “fantasy guy.” He has the fourth overall pick in our draft, and after the first three picks were the usual suspects of tier-one running backs and receivers, this guy drafted Josh Allen. So yes, he’s “that guy” who reaches for a QB in Round 1. Well, he’s also that guy who has an early 33.48-point lead in his Week 1 matchup. Can Allen produce 353 total yards and four touchdowns every week? On Thursday night, he looked like he could. (Still, here’s why you don’t draft a QB in the first round: My friend with Allen is playing a team with Justin Herbert at QB. While Allen was the fourth player drafted, Herbert went in the middle of Round 3. That’s still pretty high, but the fantasy manager with Herbert also has Austin Ekeler and Deebo Samuel. The top skill-position guys on Allen’s fantasy team are Javonte Williams and Tyreek Hill. Which trio would you rather have?)
Diggin’ on Diggs
While much of the preseason fantasy chatter was dedicated to figuring out whether Gabriel Davis or Isaiah McKenzie would emerge as Buffalo’s WR2, we may have been sleeping on Stefon Diggs. The Bills WR1 had the seventh-most fantasy points among receivers last season, but he was WR3 two years ago. With eight catches for 122 yards and one TD Thursday night, he looked like he should have been a first-round pick in your fantasy draft. Davis and McKenzie did both have TD grabs as well. Davis got more targets than McKenzie or Jamison Crowder, but it’s clear that Allen will a) be spreading the ball around; and b) giving Diggs the lion’s share of targets.
Where’s Akers?
From a non-fantasy perspective, Rams coach Sean McVay made a huge mistake by trying so hard to establish the run. Maybe he knew his offensive line wasn’t prepared to give Matthew Stafford any protection, but the wasted first-down running plays were a gift to Buffalo. Now, from a fantasy perspective, it’s a stunner that Darrell Henderson Jr. got so much of the action. Henderson had 13 carries (for 47 yards) while Cam Akers had just three carries (for zero yards). As Matt De Lima noted earlier this week, the Rams might just be bringing Akers along slowly early in the season. At the very least, Henderson did nothing to merit a 13-3 edge in carries. Akers should get more action going forward.
Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports
Where’s A-Rob?
So much for Allen Robinson finally being in a place where he can utilize his talent. One catch for 12 yards? And while Cooper Kupp was targeted 15 times, Robinson was targeted twice. Again, maybe this was simply a result of Von Miller and the Bills’ pass rush wreaking havoc on Stafford. Then again, maybe if some of those ridiculous first-down runs were play-action passes, Robinson could have been more involved. We’ll see.
Meanwhile, the player with the second-most targets after Kupp was tight end Tyler Higbee. He finished with five catches for 39 yards on 11 targets. Not a great catch rate, but Higbee is available in 25% of NFL.com leagues, so he could be a popular Week 2 waiver target.
Kupp runneth...
It’s always silly to play the “on pace for” game after one whole game, but Cooper Kupp makes it impossible not to. Kupp won the receiving “triple crown” last year with 145 catches for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. Well, with 13 grabs for 128 yards and a score Thursday, Kupp is on pace for 221 receptions, 2,176 yards and 17 scores. Just sayin’.
Big Ben
Bear in mind that Rams WR Ben Skowronek was a factor in this game only because Van Jefferson was out. Still, he did get three times as many targets as Robinson. The 6-3, 224-pound Skowronek is more of a tight end masquerading as a receiver. He won’t be worth your time in traditional fantasy leagues, but any week in which Jefferson is out, Skowronek might be a smart cheap filler option in DFS.
Bills RBs
Bills rookie James Cook fumbled the first time he got to touch the football in his NFL debut. Some coaches (see: Bill Belichick) would have sat Cook for the next month after that, but Cook did get back onto the field a few more times Thursday. Still, the story to watch was how Buffalo mixed it up with starter Devin Singletary and Zack Moss. It was Allen who led the Bills with 10 rushing attempts, so it’s more notable to look at total touches. Moss had 12 touches – six carries, six receptions; Singletary had 10 – eight carries, two receptions. Singletary is currently the RB28 at National Fantasy Football Championship, and Moss is RB153. So is Singletary way too overvalued, or is Moss too undervalued? Or can Cook atone for his fumble and start stealing action from both? Given Buffalo’s offensive prowess, it’s a situation worth monitoring closely.
More fantasy & NFL coverage:
- Week 1 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: QB | RB | WR | TE | K/DEF
- Week 1 Fantasy Cheat Sheet
- Week 1 Rankings & Stat Projections
- Week 1 Dynasty Stock Watch
- MMQB: Bills As Good As They Seemed