Following the latest training camp developments and their fantasy implications.
The flood gates for player news are about to flow full blast this week when all 32 teams step onto the field in the preseason. Each year, a player or two comes out of nowhere, leading to a productive fantasy season.
2019 – DJ Chark (73/1,008/8) was a late-round flier at wide receiver. He finished 17th in fantasy points (225.80) in PPR leagues after an empty rookie campaign (14/174).
2020 – In mid-August, James Robinson started to hit the backend of fantasy rosters while ending up being an excellent Week 1 pick in leagues with early draft dates. He finished seventh in running back scoring (251.40 fantasy points), thanks to 289 touches. Tee Higgins was consistently selected after round 15 in the high-stakes market. He produced a WR3 season (67/908/6) despite minimal stats over the first two weeks (3/35).
2021 – Last year, Elijah Mitchell stole the lead show in San Francisco while most drafters threw worthless darts at Trey Sermon in the sixth round. He ranked 26th in running back scoring (174.70 fantasy points) while playing only 11 games. Mitchell was picked up in Week 2 in most leagues after an exciting Week 1 showing (19/104/1). Cordarrelle Patterson emerged in the second week of last season (69 combined yards with one touchdown and five catches), rewarding his supporters with a top 10 running back season (153/618/6 with 52 catches for 548 yards and five scores).
When sifting through camp news, the goal is to identify players with potential starting jobs with relatively low competition. Here are some names that emerged over the past two weeks:
WR Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers
With Christian Watson recovering from minor surgery, Doubs gained valuable snaps in the Packers’ training camp. He received a favorable report last week, thus drawing more attention to his name in fantasy drafts. I looked back at my Green Bay Packers Outlook to see my initial thoughts on him. My closing lines in his write-up: "There's more here than meets the eye, but Doubs will need time to develop. Possible second-half player." offered a window for upside in 2022.
Fantasy take: Doubs needs work in his route running, making him more of a deep threat early in his career. He should slide in the former role of Marquez Valdes-Scantling until Christian Watson regains his health. I view his rising stock as a sleight of hand in a magic trick. While most buy in a news blurb, the real pot of gold at wide receiver for Green Bay is Amari Rodgers. He projects better out of the slot, and the Packers have an aging group of wideouts in front of him. Watson's lost development time, and injury are significant knocks for me.
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RB Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
Pacheco is the buzz guy in the Chiefs’ training camp in August. Kansas City selected him in the seventh round of the 2022 NFL Draft after a dull career at Rutgers over 43 games (2,691 combined yards with 19 touchdowns and 47 catches). He gained only 4.3 yards per rush and 5.3 yards per catch. His hands don’t grade well, and pass protection skills won’t earn valuable snaps in his rookie season. Pacheco projects as a change of pace runner who needs to add patience to his running style to take advantage of winning creases in run blocking.
Fantasy take: I can’t see Pacheco jumping Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Ronald Jones on the depth chart without an injury. Jerick McKinnon is a much better receiver with plenty of experience in the NFL. I view Pacheco as a donation pick unless 10 or 12 team redraft leagues with 20 or fewer roster slots. He may surprise with coaching, but his fantasy value is minimal in 2022.
RB Breece Hall, New York Jets
The Jets lost RT Mekhi Becton potentially for the season this week after suffering a right knee cap issue. New York drafted him 11th overall. He also missed all but one game in 2021 when the Jets’ running backs gained 1,462 yards on 340 carries (4.3 yards per carry) with nine rushing scores. I don’t consider this a devastating blow to New York’s run game. It hurts for sure. Fantasy drafters have no problem selecting Najee Harris in the first round. His offensive line opened up measly little holes last year (386/1,525/9) for their running backs. Hall has star power while being priced as a midtier RB2 in the NFFC. His split role is priced into his value.
Fantasy take: I won’t move up Hall in drafts, but there is a point where his ceiling and opportunity are much better than the remaining running back inventory. Some say his head coach likes to rotate in multiple backs; I say talent prevails in the long run, and Robert Saleh didn’t make any offensive calls in San Francisco as their defensive coordinator. Last year the Jets had injuries at running back. Michael Carter worked his way to the lead back midseason, but he left Week 11 with an ankle injury costing him four games. This backfield is a two-person show (Hall/Carter). Tevin Coleman is past his prime while only offering veteran experience. Ty Johnson has pass-catching upside, but he has never been a full-time starter in his four years in the NFL.
QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Stafford progressed to throwing drills over the past week. In early March, he had an injection in his right elbow to treat inflammation, and the Rams didn’t expect him to return to full practices until the second week in August. I sense that his elbow injury is similar to a baseball pitcher with a UCL issue. Los Angeles will limit his reps to keep him healthy all season. Stafford would risk missing multiple games and possibly the season with any setback. My thoughts are purely speculation but something a fantasy drafter needs to consider before investing in any Rams’ offense player.
Fantasy Take: After an excellent season (145/1947/16), Cooper Kupp pushed his way to the top of the wide receiver ranking in 2022. In addition, Allen Robinson started to move the fantasy needle in summer drafts. If Stafford isn’t at 100% or missed any time, his top wideouts would have a natural regression in production. If Kupp finished with 100 catches for 1,200 yards with 10 touchdowns, he would still deliver WR1 stats, but would it be the best wide receiver season? I don’t trust Stafford, so I won’t fight for Kupp or Robinson in drafts.
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WR Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys
With so many injuries in the NFL, it is easy to lose track of when a player is expected to return to full strength. Typically, a player with a torn ACL needs a minimum of nine months to return to game action. Gallup had surgery on his left knee on February 10th. By my count, he should be out of action until November. Dallas signed him to a five-year deal for $62.5 a month later.
Fantasy take: Gallup has a starting playable ceiling, but I don’t expect him to play well until late in the season. I don’t like drafting players coming off significant injuries, so I have him in the avoid column unless his price point is free.
More injury news:
QB Kyler Murray landed on the injury report this week with a minor issue in his right wrist. The Cardinals suggested the injury wouldn’t be a long-term issue. TE Zach Ertz remains limited with a calf issue. WR Marquise Brown drove his way to handcuffs for a speeding incident in early August. He looks almost fully recovered from his earlier hamstring injury.
The Ravens activated RB J.K. Dobbins from the PUP list on Monday. He is trending toward playing in Week 1, so his ADP should rise with each positive report in August.
RB Melvin Gordon picked up a foot injury on Wednesday. As a result, he should miss some time in practice while having plenty of time to recover for Week 1.
Over his first two seasons in the NFL, Parris Campbell played in nine games due to multiple injuries. He turned in a couple of limited practices this week due to a hamstring issue.
WR Christian Kirk was sidelined on Wednesday with a slight ankle injury. The Jaguars don’t expect him to play in this week’s preseason game.
The Raiders have been without TE Darren Waller over the first three weeks of training camp with no update of any issue.
QB Jameis Winston suffered a minor foot issue (sprain) on Monday, leading to the Saints pumping the breaks on his return to full practice.
Rising WR Kadarius Toney may have suffered a hamstring injury on Tuesday. Earlier in camp, a knee issue led to multiple missed practices.
The Eagles have been without RB Kenneth Gainwell for a few days with a hip issue. There hasn’t been an update on the severity of the injury. WR DeVonta Smith is listed as day-to-day with a groin issue.
WR Diontae Johnson suffered a hip injury on Monday. His issue appears minor, with no update on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Tampa Bay had two of their wideouts—Mike Evans, hamstring and Russell Gage, foot—get nicked up in practice this week. Thankfully, both players didn’t suffer significant injuries.
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