Forde Minutes: Is This the Year of the Mid-Major?

Plus, the No. 1 seeds as of today, the best league races to watch, five questions with Mike Brey and more.

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in men’s college basketball, where we should probably discuss whether Saint Louis point guard Yuri Collins threw the greatest pass of the season last week:

ATTACK OF THE MID-MAJORS

As of Tuesday, 14 teams from outside the Power 6 conferences (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC) currently are ranked in the NCAA NET rankings top 50 and the Ken Pomeroy top 50. And that’s with another cluster of teams from outside those leagues between 50 and 60 in both sets of rankings. In other words, the bubble is rife with mid-major contenders, and the bracket should have more of them than usual.

If—IF—the men’s NCAA tournament selection committee gives them a full and fair vetting. A data scientist who has spent 15 years studying and projecting the tournament fields has his doubts.

“The selection committee has been very biased against the mid-majors for quite some time,” said Sheldon Jacobson, a computer science professor at Illinois whose BracketOdds website has become a hive of March Madness data and analytics projections. “We’re going to have a preponderance of mid-majors who really aren’t as mid-major-y as they look in the 7-through-10 seed range. That’s going to create chaos. We could have 10 mid-majors this year as at-large teams.”

There are numbers to back that up. Right now, having 14 mid-majors in the top 50 is the most in at least seven years in the KenPom rankings. The average number of mid-majors in the top 50 from 2015 to ’21 was 10, so this is a significant jump up.

The Minutes would break down the leading contenders as follows …

Locks: Gonzaga (1) and Houston (2). The Zags (21–2) returned to No. 1 in the human polls and lead many analytics rankings as well. They’re not only making the field; they could very well go in as the No. 1 overall seed for the second consecutive season. The Cougars (20–4, No. 5 in the NET and No. 8 KenPom) are coming off their worst week of the season, losing to both SMU and Memphis, and their rotation has been shortened by injuries. But they still could lock down a top-16 seed with a good closing stretch.

Highly likely: Saint Mary’s (3), Loyola Chicago (4), Colorado State (5) and Wyoming (6). The Gaels (20–6, No. 22 NET and No. 20 KenPom) have no bad losses, and if they take care of business at home this week against San Francisco and BYU would probably move into the lock category. Loyola (19–5, No. 28 NET and No. 24 KenPom) has no losses outside Quad 1 or 2 games, and should be O.K. if that continues the rest of the regular season. The Rams (20–3, No. 27 NET and No. 32 KenPom) and Cowboys (21–3, No. 25 NET and No. 31 KenPom) have been centerpieces in the wildly entertaining Mountain West Conference race; both must avoid trap games in The Pit this week against New Mexico.

Got a great chance: Murray State (7), Boise State (8) and San Francisco (9).

The Racers (24–2, No. 26 in both the NET and KenPom) haven’t lost since before Christmas and have a win at Memphis on the résumé, but the Ohio Valley Conference slate is weak enough that they can’t afford to stumble in three games left against bad teams—they could perhaps lose to Belmont and still get an at-large bid.

The Broncos (19–6, No. 39 NET and No. 40 KenPom) remain in the thick of the MWC regular-season race but have a Quad 4 loss skeleton rattling around the closet that could be problematic if they struggle down the stretch.

The Dons (21–6, No. 32 NET and No. 27 KenPom) were cruising along until a Quad 4 clunker at their home—a stunning loss to Portland last week. They have road wins over BYU and Santa Clara, but also need to avoid bad road upsets at Pacific and San Diego in the closing games.

In the mix: Memphis (10), SMU (11), San Diego State (12) and the winner of North Texas–UAB (13) on Saturday. The Tigers and Mustangs enhanced their résumés dramatically with wins over Houston last week and are heading toward a big game against each other in Dallas on Sunday. The Aztecs have no bad losses but could use a couple more quality wins—and have the remaining schedule to get them. The Conference USA battle between the streaking Mean Green (winners of 10 straight) and Blazers is a rematch of a game won by UAB on the road in early January.

Teams that need to keep winning to get into the at-large conversation: Davidson, Dayton, Fresno State, Utah State, Belmont, Chattanooga, VCU, St. Bonaventure, Saint Louis.

THE KEY INGREDIENT TO A MID-MAJOR ATTACK: THEY’RE OLD

If you look at the rotation players who are getting at least 33% of a team’s minutes from the mid-major top 50 ranks, almost all of them are veterans. Some of them are ancient by college standards.

The extra season of eligibility has made an impact at all levels of college basketball, but probably the programs below the Power 6 have been impacted the most. Fewer of them have their sights set on leaving college early for pro careers.

Only 14 of the 71 Division I early entrants to the 2021 NBA draft were from outside the Power 6. While the transfer portal has shuffled nearly every lineup, there simply are a lot of old mid-major teams out there.

Look at UAB, where Andy Kennedy (14) has a seven-man rotation that averages 22.3 years old and 110 Division I games of experience. The youngest player in UAB’s top seven is KJ Buffen at 21, and he’s more than three months older than the oldest player in the top seven at Duke (15). That’s Joey Baker, who will turn 22 in September.

Houston has a top six that averages 102 games of D-I experience, with four who have played 120 or more. San Francisco checks in at 99 games per man, with guard Jamaree Bouyea (16) having played in 149.

The conventional wisdom in college hoops shifted to a get-old, stay-old philosophy a few years ago. The best of the mid-majors are doing that, and it could pay dividends in March.

THE TOP FOUR FOR THE MOMENT

How The Minutes would arrange the top seed line as of Feb. 14. We’ll see how it compares to the committee’s top 16 early reveal this weekend:

No. 1 seed in the West Region: Gonzaga. Either the Zags or Arizona seems all but assured of getting the No. 1 in this region, with the other potentially shipped elsewhere (see below). Mark Few’s team has won 14 straight, all by 14 points or more. The likely Gonzaga tournament location path at this point is Portland–San Francisco (17).

No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region: Kentucky (18). The hottest team not named Gonzaga is taking no prisoners since losing at Auburn on Jan. 22. But there could be some shuffling here, with the Wildcats potentially ending up as the top seed somewhere else if Kansas or a Big Ten team finishes powerfully and takes the road to Chicago.

No. 1 seed in the South Region: Auburn (19). The Tigers’ road struggles continued last week with an overtime loss at Arkansas, an outcome so stirring for the home team that coach Eric Musselman showed Bruce Pearl he’s not the only SEC coach capable of going shirtless on a moment’s notice (with his arm in a sling, no less). Before that loss to the Razorbacks, Auburn’s previous two road games were last-second escapes against Georgia and Missouri. Baylor could still snatch the top seed in the South and play in San Antonio.

No. 1 seed in the East Region: Arizona (20). Could Duke or Villanova end up here? Sure, it’s possible—but probably as a No. 2 or 3 seed. Arizona is a bona fide No. 1 seed at the moment, with a pretty manageable schedule from now until the postseason.

STUDENT-ATHLETE WELFARE? YEAH, RIGHT

As college athletics has continued to produce more and more revenue, the industry leaders were careful to frame everything around a single guiding principle: student-athlete welfare. Put the athletes first, and make every major decision based on how it affects them. Sounds good, right?

It also rings particularly hollow when it comes to conferences banning departing schools from competing in their league championships. Because how, exactly, does abruptly terminating athletes’ goals of winning a conference title and/or advancing to the NCAA championships in their sport square with student-athlete welfare?

The Colonial Athletic Association (21) pulled this with James Madison, which is on the way to the Sun Belt Conference, in the fall. The Minutes wrote about it then.

More recently, the America East (22) banned Stony Brook, which is departing for the very CAA that James Madison is leaving.

Thankfully, the Horizon League (23) reversed course Tuesday and changed its championship ban on outgoing UIC, which is ticketed for the Missouri Valley. Kudos to that group of leaders for being flexible in their thinking and putting some sincerity behind their athlete-first platitudes.

Eight other schools are ineligible for their conference championship as transitioning members who have upgraded from Division II. In the Atlantic Sun (24) that includes a Bellarmine team that, as of today, would be a top-four seed for the conference tournament.

There are some layers to these stories. In each case, the leagues have bylaws that made clear that this termination of conference championship eligibility would happen when a school declared its intention to leave. And the departing schools have often voted in favor of those rules (in UIC’s case, its leadership proposed the rule to its Horizon colleagues). Knowing those rules existed, those schools have at times disingenuously gone to the media to cry foul when they are enforced.

It’s understandable that conferences would not want to see departing members making off with vital revenue shares and prestige-enhancing championships. But there also is vindictiveness and pettiness at play here. The departing schools haven’t cheated or been charged with NCAA violations; they have simply exercised an option that many of the others in their league would love to have for themselves.

(They could have hidden their departure date to avoid such issues, which is hardly an ideal way of handling things. Conference USA (25) just found itself in a massive football scheduling pickle when Southern Mississippi, Marshall and Old Dominion announced their departure date as June 30—an announcement that directly coincided with C-USA’s release of a 2022 football schedule that included those three schools. The three schools are headed for the Sun Belt, but it’s unclear whether they can begin competition in that league this fall.)

To simply shrug and say “check the bylaws” as athletes are being turned away from the biggest competitions of their season runs directly against the stated mission of college athletics, doesn’t it? At some point, the adults in charge need to step up and do what’s right for the athletes. Be the bigger person/school/entity and waive the bylaw, as the Horizon League did this week. Cutting off access to a league title and punishing the athletes involved isn’t the answer.

BEST LEAGUE RACES TO WATCH

We’ve hit the latter half of February, which means it’s crunch time for teams trying to win their regular-season conference titles. A Minutes glance at the six most intriguing to watch over the next couple of weeks:

The Big Ten (26). The situation: heading into Tuesday games, Illinois (11–3) is a game up in the loss column over Purdue (11–4), Wisconsin (10–4), Michigan State (9–4) and Ohio State (8–4).

The favorite: If the Illini can navigate the rest of February still maintaining that lead, they could win the title in Champaign given a closing home stand against Penn State and Iowa. But the next four are tough: at red-hot Rutgers on Wednesday, at Michigan State on Saturday, home against Ohio State on Feb. 24 and at Michigan on Feb. 27.

Most interesting remaining schedule: Ohio State is extremely busy, with eight games remaining, but six are at home. With six games in the final two weeks of the regular season, Chris Holtmann will have to decide how much to put into chasing the league title versus saving legs for the postseason.

The ACC (27). The situation: It’s a bad ACC, but a competitive ACC. Duke and Notre Dame are tied at the top at 11–3, with North Carolina and Miami in pursuit at 10–4 and Wake Forest loitering on the fringe at 10–5.

The favorite: Duke has been the best team all season, owns a head-to-head win over the Fighting Irish on the road and has upcoming home games against contenders Wake Forest (Tuesday) and North Carolina (March 5). If it comes down to that finale against the Tar Heels, it’s hard to see the Blue Devils losing in what will be Mike Krzyzewski’s last game in Cameron Indoor Stadium. (Then again: Given the astronomical get-in price for that game, some of the usual raucousness could be lost to the idle rich who buy up tickets on the secondary market.)

Most interesting remaining schedule: Wake Forest could either blow up the race or bow out of it this week, with games against the co-leaders. The Demon Deacons are at Duke on Tuesday and host Notre Dame on Saturday.

Mountain West (28). The situation: This race has been all kinds of fun. Wyoming (10–1) has a one-game lead in the loss column over Boise State (10–2) and two games over Colorado State (10–3) and San Diego State (7–3).

The favorite: The Cowboys have the edge right now and could maintain it, but nothing is ironclad for a team that has played an amazing number of close games (they’re 10–2 in games decided by single digits, and 7–1 in games that were decided by a single possession or went into overtime). Key games are at Colorado State on Feb. 23 and San Diego State in Laramie on Feb. 28.

Most interesting remaining schedule: The Aztecs are cramming in rescheduled games and still won’t play the full 18-game MWC schedule. They’ve got seven remaining, including trips to Boise and Laramie.

The American (29). The situation: Houston’s vice grip on the league was loosened last week. The Cougars (9–2) are now tied with SMU (9–2), and Memphis is lurking at 8–4.

The favorite: Houston should be solidly favored in its next six games, which could eliminate the suspense before a season finale at Memphis.

Most interesting remaining schedule: The Tigers might be two games behind in the loss column, but they could control their own destiny with games remaining against the two teams ahead of them. They’re at SMU on Saturday (after a game at Cincinnati on Tuesday) and host Houston on March 6.

The Atlantic-10 (30). The situation: Davidson (11–2) leads by a game over Dayton (10–3), with VCU (9–3) in pursuit. Saint Louis (8–4) and St. Bonaventure (7–4) are not out of the picture.

The favorite: Dayton might have the match on its racket, so to speak, even with three of the last five on the road. If the Flyers can win the first four, they’d host Davidson on March 5 with a lot on the line in what should be a zesty UD Arena.

Most interesting remaining schedule: St. Bonaventure has often been a late-developing team under Mark Schmidt, and the Bonnies take a three-game winning streak into three straight winnable home games. The key game could be March 1 at VCU, but Bona also is scheduled to play only 17 league games to everyone else’s 18 due to previous COVID-19 issues.

The Ivy League (31). The situation: Yale (8–1) holds a one-game lead in the loss column over Penn (8–2) and Princeton (7–2). All three are close to clinching spots in the four-team tournament.

The favorite: Yale gets both the other contenders at home this weekend and could all but end the race with a sweep of the Quakers and Tigers.

Most interesting remaining schedule: After Saturday, Penn will play just two more games in the regular season. If the Quakers make the Ivy tourney, that will be two games in a 21-day span.

FIVE QUESTIONS WITH A COACH

The Minutes caught up with rejuvenated Notre Dame coach Mike Brey (32), whose Fighting Irish have won four straight and eight of their last nine.

Minutes Q: After starting 4–5, how does it feel to have your team playing well and in the mix in mid-February?

Brey: I was hoping Selection Sunday was today (33). Let’s go! (Laughs.) We have a fun group—we needed to have a fun group.

Minutes Q: What’s been the key to pulling this team together after a few difficult seasons and a slow start?

Brey: We did some things with our staff we needed to do (34). We were really at a crossroads. Bringing Anthony Solomon back again (for his third stint at Notre Dame) to handle the defense has really been a positive. And Ryan Humphrey has really grown into his role [primarily working with big men]. He’s been so good with Nate Laszewski.

Minutes Q: How did your rotation come together in recent weeks?

Brey: This was always going to be [Prentiss] Hubb’s team (35). He had a really rough start [Brey took his fourth-year guard out of the starting lineup for three games in early December]. Until he negotiated how he and [freshman] Blake Wesley would play together, we were searching. But he showed his maturity. Hubb’s like [Wesley’s] big brother. We’re 14–3 since Hubb is back in the starting lineup.

Minutes Q: You had a top-10 recruiting class in 2018 with Hubb, Laszewski and Dane Goodwin (and others who have transferred). They’ve played a lot of basketball but haven’t had high-level success until this year. How has it come together for them?

Brey: Well, we have seven guys earning degrees—six undergrads and one [Yale transfer Paul Atkinson Jr.] getting an MBA. That doesn’t happen in college basketball anymore. The senior class was made up of highly rated recruits, but none of them were one-and-dones. They all needed time. We played them as freshmen and we swallowed hard (36). We had three [NCAA tournament] No. 1 seeds in the ACC that year, and we finished 15th.

There were days I walked out on the court and [went], “Maybe we can’t get over the hump.” But if you can just hang in, you can prove yourselves. Now I’m teasing them that we’re getting a return on our investment in them as freshmen.

Minutes Q: From 7–11 in the league to 11–3, you’re now close to an NCAA bid. How do you finish this?

Brey: The seniors haven’t played in it yet. I brought them to my house last year on Selection Sunday. We watched it. It was painful (37). Since then, we’ve had the countdown signs in the locker room—all summer, counting it down—240 days to Selection Sunday. They’ve worked hard for it, had to come off the mat. I’m just hoping they can finish it. I’ve got to remind myself now, don’t overcoach. I just don’t want to f--- them up.

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COACH WHO EARNED HIS COMP CAR THIS WEEK

Steve Pikiell (38), Rutgers. After breaking through last year and earning the Scarlet Knights’ first NCAA bid since the 1990s, this year’s team regressed to 12–9 overall, 6–5 in the Big Ten after a loss to Northwestern on Feb. 1. The last three games have been a different story: resounding upsets of Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin (in Madison) have altered the conference title race and reestablished Rutgers as a team with a chance to crash the Big Dance with a strong finish. The closing schedule is ridiculously hard—Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Penn State—but that also presents opportunity. Pikiell is reminding everyone what a great hire he was for this job in 2016.

COACH WHO SHOULD TAKE THE BUS TO WORK

Buzz Williams (39), Texas A&M. The Aggies have lost eight straight, sagging to 12th in the SEC after a 4–0 league start. When they couldn’t hold a second-half lead at home against Kentucky in mid-January, the momentum stopped and the slide began. Three years into his tenure, Williams figures to finish this season still having more NCAA infractions cases on his A&M résumé (one) than NCAA appearances (zero).

BUZZER BEATER

The Minutes didn’t do any fine dining on the road last week but did hit an obscure Louisville treasure: Passtime Fish House (40). Tucked away in an industrial park in the Jeffersontown area, the place is sports-friendly with multiple TVs and is known for its fish sandwiches. But the chicken wings are excellent, and The Minutes recommends the fried bologna sandwich (listed on the menu as “The J-Town Ribeye”). Try it with a West Sixth IPA on tap and thank The Minutes later.

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