Forde Minutes: Which Teams Are Hitting the Panic Button?

The NCAA tournament bubble has some big faces. Plus, assessing the top seed lines and first-year coaches.

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in men’s college basketball, where spitting on fans is a crime in some locales:

IT’S NEVER TOO EARLY TO PANIC

Selection Sunday is less than five weeks away, which makes this a good time to check in on some notable programs that are loitering around the NCAA tournament bubble or jeopardizing their seeding as we head toward the season’s stretch run. Fans, go ahead and start your anxiety engines:

North Carolina (1). Status: 16–7 overall, 8–4 in the ACC, No. 42 NCAA NET ranking, No. 46 Ken Pomeroy. In or out as of Feb. 7: In, maybe, kind of.

An 8–4 ACC record has never mattered less than this one, given the dilapidated state of the league in men’s hoops. And upon closer inspection, it’s even less impressive: the Tar Heels are 1–4 against teams in the top half of the league, 7–0 against teams in the bottom half. Carolina has done nothing away from Chapel Hill, and its best wins are hardly dazzling (Michigan, Furman and Virginia at home). The blowout home loss to Duke exposed what has been fairly evident for a while: Carolina is a bad defensive team. The previous game was even worse, when what had been a listless Louisville team had the Heels on the ropes until a succession of questionable calls went Carolina’s way. This team will have to ratchet up its intensity to fight its way into the Big Dance.

Michigan (2). Status: 11–9 overall, 5–5 in the Big Ten, No. 52 NCAA NET, No. 42 Ken Pomeroy. In or out as of Feb. 7: Out, but barely.

A year after earning a No. 1 seed and falling two points short of the Final Four, the Wolverines are one of the more prominent disappointments nationally. Michigan has taken a big step back defensively, dropping from No. 4 nationally in the Pomeroy Ratings to No. 108 year-over-year. Specifically, field goal percentage defense inside the arc has soared from 42.6% to 50.4%. Whether that’s a product of playing freshmen more this season or less of an interior presence from 7-footer Hunter Dickinson is open to debate. Michigan’s win at Indiana on Jan. 23 was big, but the Wolverines are just 2–6 on the road this season. There is a path to win their way into the bracket, though, with six of the remaining 10 regular-season games at home against big-time competition.

Florida (3). Status: 15–8 overall, 5–5 in the SEC, No. 44 NCAA NET, No. 49 Ken Pomeroy. In or out as of Feb. 7: In, perhaps?

The Gators may be the poster boys for a bubble team. As of today, they have First Four written all over them—or maybe a top seed in the NIT. They have a single quality nonconference win (over Ohio State in Fort Myers, Florida, in November), a single quality conference win (home over Mississippi State) and a couple of damaging losses (home to Texas Southern and at Mississippi). Just about every game is desperately close. If they can score an upset of Kentucky (which Florida plays twice) or Auburn (once), that would help immensely. Getting Colin Castleton back from injury could be big for the stretch run.

Oregon (4). Status: 15–7 overall, 8–3 in the Pac-12, No. 49 NCAA NET, No. 51 Ken Pomeroy. In or out as of Feb. 7: Out, but loitering.

The Ducks have given themselves a chance since Christmas, winning nine of their last 10 after a 6–6 start. (Integrating three transfers into the lineup took time.) The recent hot streak includes road wins at UCLA and USC, and a cathartic, first-ever victory at Colorado last week. With three straight at home, Oregon could well be on the right side of the bubble by this time next week. The Ducks then have a huge three-game stretch from Feb. 19 through Feb. 26: at Arizona, then home against UCLA and USC.

Creighton (5). Status: 13–8 overall, 5–5 in the Big East, No. 74 NCAA NET, No. 71 Ken Pomeroy. In or out as of Feb. 7: Out.

The metrics hate the Bluejays, ranking them well below where normal at-large contenders should be after not putting anything of note on the résumé in the first month of the season. But since then, Creighton has substantive victories over BYU, Villanova, Marquette and Connecticut. This is probably Greg McDermott’s worst shooting team at the school, making just 30.5% from three-point range. The Bluejays could gather momentum over the next two weeks, with four straight winnable games against the lower end of the Big East, then hit a crucial closing stretch.

Then there are the teams that have good overall résumés but losing league records. Over the last 10 NCAA tournaments, an average of 1.6 teams from Power 6 conferences have earned at-large bids per season with losing league records. (Interestingly, none of them have been ACC teams.) Once those teams get in the Big Dance, they don’t last long—none have made it past the first round of the tourney.

Five teams struggling in league play after doing well in nonconference games:

Iowa State (6). After roaring out to a 12–0 start that included wins over Iowa, Xavier, Creighton and Memphis, the Cyclones have sagged to 3–7 in the Big 12. But they’ve also fought through the toughest part of a tough league, with two games already against Kansas, Texas and Texas Tech and one against Baylor. The schedule provides a chance to stack some victories between now and March and that could solidify Iowa State’s seeding and NCAA standing.

Iowa (7). The uncertainty in Ames has migrated to Iowa City as well. Life After Luka Garza hasn’t been bad by any means, but at 5–6 in the Big Ten it could be better. After opening with six games against lightweight competition, the Hawkeyes got a couple of solid nonconference wins over Virginia and Utah State. Since then, the only noteworthy accomplishment was a home victory over Indiana. Losses at Rutgers and Penn State have not helped. Standout scorer Keegan Murray has made only half of his field goals once in the last five games as defenses concentrate on stopping him.

Alabama (8). Can a team beat Gonzaga, Houston and Baylor and still be a disappointment? If that team is the Crimson Tide, then yes. They’ve been all over the place, sometimes appearing capable of earning the program’s first Final Four bid and sometimes looking like a team that won’t win a game come SEC or NCAA tournament time. In the past month, Alabama (4–6 in the league) has lost to the two worst teams in the SEC (Missouri and Georgia), got swept by Auburn and lost decisively at home to Kentucky. Bama is shooting an SEC-worst 26.5% from three in league play, yet is still launching 48% of its shots from outside the arc. Combine that with indifferent defense and defensive rebounding, and the Tide have some work to do to get right.

LSU (9). After a 15–1 start that included plenty of quality wins, the Tigers (4–6 in the SEC) have fallen apart. They’ve lost six of their last seven, including major upsets last week against Mississippi at home and at Vanderbilt. This is a good defensive team that is struggling badly with offensive execution and shot making. With or without injured point guard Xavier Pinson, who has missed six of the last eight games, LSU is turning the ball over at a ghastly rate. In league games, the Tigers are last in the SEC in turnover rate.

Seton Hall (10). After a 9–1 start, the Pirates hit a COVID-19 pause and haven’t been the same since. They have top-40 power ratings but needed two victories last week just to get to 5–6 in the Big East. Sixth-year senior point guard Bryce Aiken, who hasn’t played a full season of games since 2017 while at Harvard, has missed the last six while in concussion protocol. Syracuse transfer Kadary Richmond has stepped up his play at the point in recent games, especially a big win over Creighton last week. The next three games loom large: Xavier, at Villanova, at UConn.

THE TOP FOUR FOR THE MOMENT

Who will grab the No. 1 seeds on Selection Sunday? That’s a fluid situation. The NET and Pomeroy have the same top four, albeit in different order. Alphabetically, it’s Arizona, Gonzaga, Houston, Kentucky. Here’s how The Minutes would seed the top line as of Feb. 7:

No. 1 seed in the West: Gonzaga (11). The Zags were at their high-octane best Saturday night at BYU, roaring out to a 27–5 lead and winning by 33 despite leading scorer Drew Timme contributing just 13 points. Freshman stick figure Chet Holmgren (20 points, 17 rebounds, six assists, five blocks) continues to get better and could be a monster by March—if he’s not one now. Give Gonzaga the overall No. 1 seed for now.

The second seed behind Gonzaga: Duke (12). Yes, The Minutes would welcome a rematch of these two teams after their exciting showdown in Las Vegas in November was won by the Blue Devils. Prior to playing Virginia Monday night, Duke’s won three straight ACC games on the road and trailed for a total of one minute and 43 seconds in those games—a 2–0 deficit against Notre Dame.

No. 1 seed in the Midwest: Purdue (13). Big Ten primacy will be clearer after a super Tuesday of games matching the top four teams: Illinois at the Boilermakers and Wisconsin at Michigan State. For now, Purdue has the best résumé in the league and one of the four best in the land (but not by much).

The second seed behind Purdue: Kansas (14). Jayhawks were a No. 1 seed before that home punting against Kentucky in the Big 12–SEC challenge. Still could easily end up there when all is said and done.

No. 1 seed in the South: Auburn (15). The Tigers have stated their case to be the overall No. 1, but they’ve also shown weakness in their past two road games. They beat SEC doormats Missouri and Georgia by a combined three points and could have easily lost both. Bruce Pearl won the transfer portal for 2021–22, putting a potent supporting cast around star freshman Jabari Smith. Sometimes the supporting cast has to be reminded who the star is, however—Smith got just seven shots at Georgia on Saturday, going long stretches without being involved in the offense.

The second seed behind Auburn: Houston (16). As usual, the Cougars’ consistent dominance is not being fully appreciated. They’ve won five straight by double digits, most recently destroying Cincinnati on the road from the opening tip onward.

No. 1 seed in the East: Kentucky (17). You could debate which Wildcats deserve this spot most—Kentucky, Arizona or even Villanova. But the bluegrass version is coming off two monster road performances, blowing out Kansas in Lawrence and easily handling Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Kentucky has every necessary ingredient to win it all, although scant depth will make it vital to stay healthy.

The second seed: Arizona (18). Very talented team with all the pieces, most notably size and athleticism. The questions are whether Arizona has shooters who can loosen up a defense, and whether a team with zero NCAA tournament experience can handle that crucible when the time comes.

HOW IS YOUR FIRST-YEAR COACH DOING?

There were 11 coaching changes in the Power 6 conferences, and plenty more elsewhere. The Minutes takes a quick look at how those changes are going thus far:

Mike Woodson (19), Indiana. Replaced: Archie Miller. At the very least, there is a renewed air of joy and enthusiasm in Bloomington after the increasingly dour Miller era ended after four seasons. But Woodson has proven to be more than just a comfort hire for nostalgists—he’s put an improved product on the floor after retaining some key players and hitting the portal. At 16–6 and 7–5 in the Big Ten, Indiana is safely in the NCAA tourney field for now, although the remaining schedule presents at least four major challenges.

Ben Johnson (20), Minnesota. Replaced: Richard Pitino. Johnson was handed a monumental task, with the top seven players all transferring out from what wasn’t a good team to begin with. It’s gone about like you’d expect: the Gophers are 11–9 overall, 2–9 in the Big Ten and taking a four-game losing streak into a week of rare winnable games at Nebraska on Wednesday and home against Penn State on Saturday. The fact that Johnson got off to a 10–1 start is cause for optimism at the beginning of a vast rebuilding job.

Tommy Lloyd (21), Arizona. Replaced: Sean Miller. Mark Few’s former right-hand man is on the National Coach of the Year shortlist. He inherited a promising roster from all over the globe, upped the tempo, spread the floor and has gotten emphatic results. Lloyd was selective in choosing his first head-coaching job, and he couldn’t have picked a better one as a proven recruiter and coach of international players.

Craig Smith (22), Utah. Replaced: Larry Krystkowiak. Much like Johnson at Minnesota, Smith inherited a tottering program and saw the returning players scatter via the portal. As such, the Utes are quite bad—9–15 overall and 2–12 in the Pac-12 with one win since Christmas. (That was over Oregon State, which has collapsed after its fate-kissing run to the Elite Eight last year.) Smith, who had five straight 20-win seasons at previous stops, just needs to get through this season and regroup.

Mark Adams (23), Texas Tech. Replaced: Chris Beard. What happens when you get your big chance at age 65? You seize the moment and make the most of it. Adams has done fine work since being promoted to replace Beard, whose departure for hated Texas left a lot of hurt feelings. The program’s commitment to defense has not only remained, it might have intensified; Tech is the No. 2 defensive team in the country and at 18–5 is a lock for its fourth straight NCAA bid.

Porter Moser (24), Oklahoma. Replaced: Lon Kruger. One of the more intriguing hires of the offseason is off to an unspectacular start. The Sooners are 13–10, 3–7 in the Big 12 and winners of just one of their last eight games. But that isn’t a huge surprise, given the patchwork nature of the roster and Moser’s penchant for methodical program building (it took seven seasons to earn his first NCAA tournament bid at Loyola Chicago). With a top 50 Pomeroy rating, Oklahoma is in line with where it was for the previous five seasons under Kruger.

T.J. Otzelberger (25), Iowa State. Replaced: Steve Prohm. Going 16–7 to date certainly beats the 2–22 disaster of last season. The excitement is back in Hilton Coliseum, despite the recent struggles mentioned above. Iowa State fans are energized by a team that is working hard defensively and a work in progress at the offensive end. Otzelberger has the recruiting chops to keep the Clones in the Big 12 mix going forward.

Chris Beard (26), Texas. Replaced: Shaka Smart. At 17–6 overall and 6–4 in the Big 12, the preseason coronation as a national championship contender hasn’t gone as expected—but count out the Longhorns at your own peril. As others on this list can attest, cobbling together a roster on the fly doesn’t always pay immediate dividends. There is nothing of note on the nonconference résumé, which means Texas needs to avoid staggering down the stretch against formidable competition (Kansas and Baylor twice each). But the talent is there to make an impact in March.

Shaka Smart (27), Marquette. Replaced: Steve Wojciechowski. Smart is back in his happy place at a basketball school (more on that below) with immediate results. Marquette is 16–7 overall, 8–4 in the Big East and ticketed for the Big Dance with a sweep of Villanova and a nonleague win over Illinois. The Golden Eagles are better defensively than they’ve been in a decade.

Tony Stubblefield (28), DePaul. Replaced: Dave Leitao. The former Oregon assistant has already equaled last year’s Big East win total of two and has optimism-building nonconference wins over Louisville and Rutgers. Standout guard Javon Freeman-Liberty has missed the last six games, but that didn’t stop the Blue Demons from an upset win at Xavier on Saturday. The seeds of hope are being planted at what has been a hopeless program for many years.

Earl Grant (29), Boston College. Replaced: Jim Christian. With four ACC victories in 11 games, the Eagles have doubled last year’s conference win total. There may not be many more, though, even in a bad ACC, as the road from here becomes more difficult. Although benefitting from a few returning veterans, Grant also had to dip into the portal to fill out the lineup. Like DePaul, BC has been down for so long that this will have to be a gradual build.

Hubert Davis (30), North Carolina. Replaced: Roy Williams. After the blowout home loss to Duke, Davis’s inaugural season is not up to program standard—but then again, neither were Williams’s last two seasons. The Tar Heels haven’t lost to any clearly inferior opponents, but they have lost seven times in 23 games and, as noted above, are in a precarious NCAA tournament position. There also have been few high points beyond home victories over Michigan and Virginia. For everyone who questioned whether Davis was ready for one of the best jobs in the sport, those questions remain unanswered.

SWALLOWING THE WHISTLE … AND THE MICROPHONE

The attention of the sport swung sharply to an unexpected location Saturday afternoon: Stegeman Coliseum, where No. 1 Auburn was supposed to make quick work of Georgia. That seemed to be the case as the Tigers rolled to a 15-point lead, but the last-place Bulldogs mounted a steely comeback and were in position to win the game in the final minute.

Then what would have been the biggest Power 6 upset of the season got away. Amid some controversy that went unaddressed during the game (31).

Georgia’s Aaron Cook missed a free throw that could have given the Bulldogs a three-point lead with 56 seconds left. Auburn scored to tie the game. Georgia missed an open three for the lead and potentially the win, with 16 seconds left. And then Tigers guard Wendell Green Jr. drove pell-mell to the basket at the other end.

On the way there he collided full-force with Georgia guard Jaxon Etter. Block or charge, it was indisputably a foul. There was no whistle. Green regrouped and laid the ball in with 3.3 seconds left for the winning basket.

In a sport overrun with charging calls, this was a seemingly obvious one that went uncalled with the game on the line. John Adams, former NCAA coordinator of officials, chimed in on Twitter with his assessment: “Textbook player control foul [charge].”

“I did think it was a charge,” Etter said. “But I was told not to touch on things like that, so I’m going to leave it at that.”

But perhaps even more curious than the no-call was the no-comment from the SEC Network announcing crew of Dave Neal and Jon Sundvold. They didn’t even raise the question of whether a foul should have been called, either way, and a replay of the deciding moment was shown exactly once.

Neal and Sundvold are veteran announcers who have done good work for many years. But avoiding even mentioning the officials’ decision there makes fans suspect that the league has the network on a short leash when it comes to fair comment and criticism of its officials. Bad look for the SEC—and a bad look for ESPN.

MANAGING A THIN BENCH—HOW ONE COACH IS DOING IT

The Minutes caught up with Houston coach Kelvin Sampson (32) last week to discuss his team’s admirable consistency from last year’s Final Four run to this year, despite the usual roster churn and a space of injuries.

“Our margin for error is not great,” Sampson said. “Prior to the injuries, our key was to have depth to play for 40 minutes. I find myself now coaching more for the second half … managing the game and making sure our kids aren’t worn down in the final 10 minutes, five minutes, to make sure we can finish games. I find myself subbing in and out of timeouts, making sure we can manage that stretch, which is something I’ve never done.

“You just adjust. You get in these situations and you just embrace them. You don’t run from them. Come on, man, these kids want to win.”

Sampson didn’t have much stress managing his playing rotations Sunday at Cincinnati. Houston scored on a dunk on a set play off the opening tip and never trailed en route to a 22-point victory. The Cougars have won 15 straight against American Athletic Conference competition.

FIVE QUESTIONS WITH A COACH

This week’s interview subject is Marquette coach Shaka Smart, doing excellent work in his first season in Milwaukee.

Minutes Q: What’s the first thing you want to do when you take over a new team?

Smart A: There are three things, and they’re all equally important. First, figuring out in short order which of the current players will be on the team (33) and building relationships as fast as possible. In this instance, none of our players were on campus (due to COVID-19 protocols). I had to literally do home visits with them.

Second, is building the coaching staff. The staffs where the head coach really knows and connects with his assistants really have an advantage. If you don’t know your assistants and they don’t know you, it’s a bad feeling.

Third is recruiting. That never stops.

Q: How did you go about coalescing this roster?

A: In 12 years prior to this we’ve done very little with transfers (34). I’ve always liked going through the recruiting process from high school and building it from the ground up, but with [just a few returning players] we weren’t going to do that and be very good.

We took four transfers. I tried to be very careful with their backgrounds. I feel like the transfer dynamic can be very transactional, which is kind of the opposite of what we’re about. For all four of the transfers who we took, as Dennis Green said, they were who we thought they were. Early on I liked our relationships and team spirit. Our guys like each other and respect each other, and you can only coach that to a certain extent.

Q: What is the difference between a basketball school (VCU or Marquette) and a football school (Texas)?

A: I get that question a lot. There’s more of a focus on basketball. That’s sometimes financial, but in a lot of important ways it’s not financial. At Marquette, the level of attention to detail is really, really high (35). It’s the best of anywhere I’ve been. There’s a real alignment here.

In the best situations, there’s a real synergy between the fans—particularly the students—and the players. At VCU, there were times it was worth six to eight points (per game). The same here. When the students are here, it makes an unbelievable difference. They’ve been off the chain in terms of passion and enthusiasm.

Q: You’ve juiced the tempo way up from where Marquette was last year offensively, into the top 10 nationally in length of offensive possession. What’s been the key to that?

A: That’s the pace we want to play at (36), although defensively we want to disrupt and that usually leads to opponents having longer possessions. We’re very pick-and-roll heavy. Last year (at Texas) we were at the top in that, and this year we are up near the top. Tyler Kolek (transfer point guard from George Mason) has been a wizard with passing the ball in pick-and-roll.

Q: How drastic was the wardrobe change from winter in Austin to winter in Milwaukee?

A: Well, I’m from Wisconsin, so I’m used to this. My wife says it best: there’s no such thing as bad weather, just bad choices in clothing (37).

COACH WHO EARNED HIS COMP CAR THIS WEEK

Jeff Linder (38), Wyoming. In a week’s time the Cowboys beat Mountain West contenders Colorado State, Boise State and Fresno State by a combined 15 points to reach 19–3 and 8–1 in the league. Wyoming is 9–2 this season in games decided by seven points or less. In 2020, Linder took over a program coming off consecutive 20-loss seasons; thus far he’s 33–14. Hard to find anyone doing better work than that.

COACH WHO SHOULD TAKE THE BUS TO WORK

Bob Huggins (39), West Virginia. The Mountaineers have lost seven straight, their longest losing streak since 2013, and are looking at missing the tournament for the second time in the last three. Huggins’s Big 12 record from ’18–19 through now: 26–36. It doesn’t help the mood in Morgantown that West Virginia transfer Oscar Tshiebwe is a prime contender for National Player of the Year at Kentucky.

BUZZER BEATER

When hungry and thirsty in Southern California, The Minutes is always on the lookout for good sushi. Try Sushi Enya (40) near Marina Del Rey, but don’t bother with the uninspiring beer list. Pick up a six-pack of Deschutes’s Squeezy Rider IPA instead and thank The Minutes later.

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