This year’s pool of contenders is large, but a lot thinner if we assume the usual formula wins out.
Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (party supplies sold separately at Rice, where the Owls have a winning record five games into the season for the first time since 2013):
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THIRD QUARTER
THE HEISMAN SORTING MECHANISM IS ENGAGED
The 21st-century formula for winning the Heisman Trophy is fairly simple: Star on a team that is in the running for the national championship all the way into late November or early December; put up huge numbers; play for a brand name.
Only three of the last 20 winners have come from outside that formula, and none of them were far outside: Louisville QB Lamar Jackson in 2016; Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel in ’12; and Baylor QB Robert Griffin III in ’11. All three were on teams with two or more losses when votes were cast and thus out of title contention, and both Louisville and Baylor would not have been considered brand names. But they all possessed great statistics and a spectacular playing style that helped override other factors not in their favor.
Using the basic formula established above—which is not necessarily a formula The Dash agrees with—we can establish a broad list of contenders and sort it from there. Let the whittling down commence.
Star player on a team with one or fewer losses (21). Start with a broad net reeling in roughly 30 names:
From the SEC: Bryce Young, Alabama quarterback (with running back Jahmyr Gibbs and linebacker Will Anderson Jr. as sidekicks); Jaxson Dart, Mississippi QB; Stetson Bennett, Georgia QB (with tight end Brock Bowers as sidekick); Hendon Hooker, Tennessee QB; Will Rogers, Mississippi State QB.
From the Big Ten: C.J. Stroud, Ohio State QB (with no fewer than four sidekicks); Blake Corum, Michigan RB; Ji’Ayir Brown, Penn State safety; Chase Brown, Illinois RB; Mo Ibrahim, Minnesota RB.
From the Big 12: Max Duggan, TCU QB; Spencer Sanders, Oklahoma State QB; Adrian Martinez, Kansas State QB (with running back Deuce Vaughn as sidekick); Jalon Daniels, Kansas QB.
From the ACC: DJ Uiagalelei, Clemson QB; Garrett Shrader, Syracuse QB (with RB Sean Tucker as sidekick); Drake Maye, North Carolina QB; Sam Hartman, Wake Forest QB; Devin Leary, North Carolina State QB.
From the Pac-12: Caleb Williams, USC QB; Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA QB (with RB Zach Charbonnet as sidekick); Bo Nix, Oregon QB.
From the Group of 5: Ivan Pace Jr., Cincinnati linebacker; Michael Pratt, Tulane QB; John Rhys Plumlee, UCF QB; Durrell Johnson, Liberty defensive end; Chevan Cordeiro, San Jose State QB; Grayson McCall, Coastal Carolina QB; Todd Centeio, James Madison QB; La’Damian Webb, South Alabama RB.
Star player on an undefeated team (22). This reduces the field to Young and company from Alabama; Dart from Ole Miss; Bennett (and Bowers) from Georgia; Hooker from Tennessee; Stroud and the cast of thousands from Ohio State; Corum from Michigan; Brown from Penn State; Duggan from TCU; Sanders from Oklahoma State; Uiagalelei from Clemson; Shrader (and Tucker) from Syracuse; Williams from USC; Thompson-Robinson (and Charbonnet) from UCLA; McCall from Coastal Carolina; and Centeio from James Madison.
Star player on an undefeated Power 5 team (23): All the above, minus McCall and Centeio.
Star player on an undefeated Power 5 team that has risen in stature in correlation with his performance (24): Bonus points for Hooker, Duggan, Shrader (and Tucker), Thompson-Robinson (and Charbonnet).
Quarterback on an undefeated Power 5 team (25): This would toss out the supporting casts at Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Syracuse and UCLA, plus Penn State safety Brown.
Quarterback on a blueblood undefeated Power 5 team (26): This would elevate Young of Alabama, Bennett of Georgia, Stroud of Ohio State, Uiagalelei of Clemson, and Williams of USC.
Now, the outliers:
Injured star player (27). What if Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers goes ballistic the rest of the way after missing three games early with a shoulder injury? Or NC State QB Leary comes back in a couple of weeks and leads the Wolfpack to a great finish? Will Levis at Kentucky? Or Jaxon Smith-Njigba if he finally gets healthy at Ohio State?
Statistical freak and/or counter-culture candidate (28). Anybody want to make a case for Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., who leads the nation in touchdown receptions (nine) and catches a TD once every 3.4 receptions? Or Gibbs of Alabama, who is averaging 8.31 yards per carry but is just beginning to see his workload increase? Or how about USC defensive lineman Tuli Tuipulotu, who leads the nation in sacks (seven) and is second in tackles for loss (12.5)?
The upset maestro (29). This would qualify as the Manziel Candidate, since Johnny Football made his mark in 2012 with the upset win at Alabama. Those who could fit that role this year: Chase Brown of Illinois (with a big performance in an upset of Michigan Nov. 19); Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, who still has games remaining against Ohio State and Penn State; Miss State QB Rogers, who still has games against Alabama and Georgia.
Glam program guy who plays great while his team wins but hovers outside Playoff contention (30). Texas running back Bijan Robinson, Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer.
As of today, The Dash ballot would be filled out thusly:
- Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
- C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
- Max Duggan, TCU
(With an admitted soft spot for Grayson McCall, who remains an underappreciated college star at Coastal Carolina.)
But we have two months to let this sort itself out. We’ll see whether the formula of the last two decades holds firm or whether the voters shake things up in 2022.
MORE DASH: Loaded Weekend | Red River Fallout | Interim Cases