While many of the conference title games are mismatched on paper, there's still quite a bit of intrigue as the season heads toward a conclusion.
Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (brooms sold separately in the Pac-12, to sweep up this mess of a season):
MORE DASH: Texas, Auburn Diverge | Everything Florida Lost
THIRD QUARTER: CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK PREVIEW
We have staggered into Championship Week. Teams are bailing out of bowls. Others won’t be able to play this weekend. Most of the title game matchups are mismatches on paper. Yee haw.
But there is one remarkable aspect of the week that bears mentioning: Eight out of 10 conferences have an unbeaten team in their title game. (The exceptions are Conference USA and the Big 12, the latter of which doesn’t even have a one-loss team in the game.) Just about everywhere you turn, a team will be putting a perfect season on the line. That alone will help generate some interest amid the grim march to a conclusion.
A Dash breakdown of the games to come:
ACC (22). Notre Dame vs. Clemson is merely the biggest game in ACC football history. The matchup pairs marquee programs (one of them on loan to the league, but still) and they both have a chance to make the playoff. They played an absolute thriller in the regular season. The quarterbacks are Heisman Trophy candidates. The coaches are among the best in the sport. For a game that has often been a dud, with Clemson or Florida State rolling past an overmatched opponent, this is a massive upgrade.
Record in ACC title games: Clemson 6–1, Notre Dame 0–0. Series record: Clemson leads, 3–2. Line: Clemson by 10 1/2.
What to watch: The score of the first meeting was 47–40, but these two teams are 1–2 in the ACC in total defense and scoring defense. They are both good in the red zone, which will be a vital area in this game. Will Trevor Lawrence do a better job than his (very capable) backup D.J. Uiagalelei of finishing drives with touchdowns? Clemson kicked four field goals in South Bend. So did Notre Dame, but the ability of Lawrence as a running threat could make a big difference for the Tigers. Also of note: Notre Dame defensive coordinator Clark Lea is on the cusp of being named head coach at Vanderbilt; what has been his level of Clemson focus this week?
Dash pick: Clemson 35, Notre Dame 28.
SEC (23). Alabama vs. Florida lost a lot of helium when the Gators gagged against LSU Saturday. (Though it does show why it’s important to play the games, which is something the College Football Playoff selection committee must keep in mind when it comes to Ohio State and its six-game schedule.) Even before the Tigers pulled out the shocker in The Swamp, Florida’s defense was being gouged in such a way that it is hard to envision them holding the Crimson Tide machine to fewer than 50 points. Possibly 60.
Record in SEC title games: Alabama 8–4, Florida 7–5. Series record: Alabama leads 26–14 overall. Line: Alabama by 17.
What to watch: Two of the most exciting playmakers in the college game will be on the Mercedes-Benz Stadium turf in Alabama’s DeVonta Smith and Florida’s Kadarius Toney. Smith averages 156 all-purpose yards per game and 16.4 per touch. Toney checks in at 123 yards per game and 13.1 per touch. They’ve combined to score 28 touchdowns, and both have scored on special teams this season. Tackling in space will be important. As noted in the Second Quarter, the QB matchup isn’t bad, either—so which team will do a better job protecting their prized passer? Florida leads the SEC in sacks and Alabama is second, but they’re also tied for second in fewest sacks allowed. That’s strength vs. strength up front on passing downs.
Dash pick: Alabama 55, Florida 28.
Big Ten (24). Ohio State vs. Northwestern is an eternal study in opposites: giant public school and small private school; age-old football factory and age-old academic power that has gotten good in football in the last quarter century; program led by an innovative offensive coach who doesn’t mind a shootout and a program led by an old linebacker who loves to win ugly. Being the last impediment to the Buckeyes’ heavy-handed pursuit of the playoff has to warm Pat Fitzgerald’s underdog soul
Record in Big Ten title games: Ohio State 4–1, Northwestern 0–1. Series record: Ohio State leads 63-14-1. Line: Ohio State by 20 1/2.
What to watch: Northwestern leads the nation in pass efficiency defense, with play-making cornerbacks who specialize at the subtle jersey-tail grab to stick with receivers. Ohio State counters with one of the nation’s best quarterbacks in Justin Fields and the two most productive wide receivers in the conference (Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave combined to average 220 receiving yards and two touchdowns per game). Can the Wildcats make Fields hold the ball even longer than he usually does—and then not let him beat them with his legs?
Dash pick: Ohio State 31, Northwestern 14.
Pac-12 (25). USC vs. Washington—no, wait, Oregon—is the perfect 2020 title game. The Ducks were called out of the bullpen Monday for a Friday game after COVID-19 disqualified the Huskies. That makes two teams lucky to be there, since the Trojans have made a habit of pulling games out of the fire this season. USC didn’t play the second-place team in its division, Colorado. Oregon didn’t play the first-place team in its division, Washington. The conference would assuredly like to see USC finish undefeated, but that would present a mixed bag—it also would point out the Pac-12’s national standing if an unbeaten champion of a Power 5 conference can’t get anywhere near the playoff.
Record in Pac-12 title games: USC 1–1, Oregon 3–0. Series record: USC leads 39-21-2. Line: No line as of Monday afternoon, since the matchup didn’t exist until then.
What to watch: Can the Ducks hang onto the football? USC is plus-seven in turnover margin, and Oregon is minus-seven. The Trojans lead the league in takeaways by a wide margin with 15. These are the two highest-rated passing offenses in the conference, but Oregon can also run the ball.
Dash pick: Oregon 31, USC 30.
Big 12 (26). Iowa State vs. Oklahoma is a matchup the selection committee likes more than the rest of America. Both teams have two losses, yet both are in the CFP top 11. Like the Big Ten matchup, this is old money vs. nouveau riche. Unlike the Big Ten matchup, this looks like a very close game on paper—as it was on the field in October, when the Cyclones beat the Sooners 37–30. The ‘Clones are so close to their first conference title since 1912 that they can taste it—but Oklahoma has had the trophy on lockdown the last three seasons.
Record in Big 12 title games: Oklahoma 10–1, Iowa State 0–0. Series record: Oklahoma leads, 76-7-2. Line: Oklahoma by 5 1/2.
What to watch: The Sooners’ improving run defense against the best back in the conference, and perhaps the nation, Breece Hall. After reeling off eight 100-yard rushing games to start the season, Hall was held to less than 100 in each of his last two. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has kept its last three opponents under the 100-yard rushing total.
Dash pick: Oklahoma 34, Iowa State 31.
American (27). Cincinnati vs. Tulsa is a soapbox moment for the AAC, with an undefeated team sitting at No. 8 in the CFP rankings and commissioner Mike Aresco fuming about it after the Bearcats were demoted one spot for two-loss Iowa State. “It was disappointing what happened last week,” Aresco said Monday. “Is (the playoff) a Power 5 invitational? Is it a Power 5 echo chamber?” Cincy gets to state its case Saturday against a team that has shown deep resolve but could be overmatched.
Record in AAC title games: Cincinnati 0–1, Tulsa 0–0. Series record: Tulsa leads 17-15-2. Line: Cincinnati by 14.
What to watch: These teams twice had a regular-season meeting called off by COVID-19. Both should be plenty rested, perhaps to the point of rusted—Cincy hasn’t played since Nov. 21, and Tulsa has played once in the last four weeks. These are the top two defenses by far in the league, and both units average two takeaways per game. Bearcats have the advantage at quarterback with Desmond Ridder, a long-striding runner and improved passer who leads the league in yards per play at 8.32.
Dash pick: Cincinnati 28, Tulsa 12.
Sun Belt (28). Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana is the biggest game in conference history, with both teams ranked in the CFP Top 20 and the winner having a shot at a New Years Six bowl, depending on what happens with Cincinnati. The Chanticleers are the most improbable unbeaten in an improbable 2020 season; they won the first game against the one-loss Ragin’ Cajuns on a field goal in the final seconds. Frankly, whoever wins should declare themselves not just champions of the Sun Belt but of the Big 12 as well.
Record in Sun Belt title games: Coastal Carolina 0–0, Louisiana 0–2. Series record: Coastal leads 2–1. Line: Coastal by four.
What to watch: The Chanticleers lead the league in yards per play at 6.64, while the Ragin’ Cajuns lead the league in fewest yards allowed per play at 4.76. So, strength against strength when Coastal has the ball. This was a glove-tight game the first time around, with neither team ever leading by more than seven points and a single yard separating them in total offense. For Louisiana’s sake, Billy Napier better have removed the 35-yard intentional safety from the playbook.
Dash pick: Coastal Carolina 35, Louisiana 28.
Mountain West (29). San Jose State vs. Boise State is a third conference title matchup of rising program vs. established overlord. The undefeated Spartans are having their best season since the 1930s, but do they have another game in the tank after spending weeks on the road due to COVID-19 restrictions in Santa Clara County? This one will be played in SJSU’s home away from home of Las Vegas. The Broncos have been there and done that in the West for two decades, so this is nothing new.
Record in MWC title games: San Jose 0–0, Boise 3–1. Series record: Boise leads 14–0. Line: Boise by 6 1/2.
What to watch: This was a hotly anticipated matchup on the blue turf that was canceled a few weeks ago. The Broncos have been incredible on special teams, scoring four touchdowns and blocking five kicks. Turnover margin tilts toward the Spartans, who are plus-four while Boise is minus-four. San Jose has not lost a fumble all season and Boise has not gained a fumble all season, which feels like a jinx to even type. SJSU quarterback Nick Starkel leads the league in pass efficiency and might be the difference maker.
Dash pick: San Jose State 27, Boise State 24.
Mid-American (30). Buffalo vs. Ball State presents a showcase opportunity for 5–0 Bulls team that probably deserves more love than it has gotten. They’ve trampled everyone, winning by an average of 30.8 points per game. (For reference, Alabama’s margin of victory is 32.7.) The Cardinals are the surprise team of the MAC, with a 4–1 record in games decided by one score. If you’re into karmic payback, Ball State’s undefeated 2008 team was upset in the MAC championship game by Buffalo.
Record in MAC title games: Buffalo 1–1, Ball State 0–1. Series record: Ball State leads, 9–2. Line: Buffalo by 13 1/2.
What to watch: The Buffalo ground-game juggernaut will be a handful. The Bulls lead the nation in rushing, averaging a whopping 7.56 yards per carry, with an explosive two-back tandem of Jaret Patterson and Kevin Marks. Buffalo also has yet to give up a sack on the season, which means the offensive line is doing great job in all facets. Ball State quarterback Drew Plitt has had an impressive senior season and receiver Yo’Heinz Tyler has six touchdowns in his last 21 receptions.
Dash pick: Buffalo 44, Ball State 24.
Conference USA (31). No league has meandered through a more COVID-addled season than this one, but it has arrived at a good title game. Marshall (7–1) has the league’s best record and UAB (5–3) has played the league’s best schedule (non-conference losses to Miami and Louisiana). We’ll see whether the Thundering Herd has bounced back from a stunning shutout loss to Rice to ruin an undefeated regular season.
Record in CUSA title games: Marshall 1–1, UAB 1–1. Series record: Marshall leads 8–2. Line: Marshall by 5 1/2.
What to watch: Two sharp coaches who probably should be at bigger programs by now in Marshall’s Doc Holliday and UAB’s Bill Clark. These are the two best defenses in the league, so expect low scoring. And don’t expect Marshall QB Grant Wells to repeat his five-interception meltdown against Rice.
Dash pick: Marshall 24, UAB 15.
MORE DASH: Texas, Auburn Diverge | Everything Florida Lost