If March Madness started today, here's how the top four seed lines would shake out.
The college basketball world got its first look into the selection committee's heads on Saturday with the release of the current Top 16 seeds for the 2021 men's NCAA tournament.
As expected, Gonzaga (19–0) and Baylor (17–0) lead the field, with Michigan (13–1) and Ohio State (16–4) also earning a No. 1 seed right now. The Bulldogs and Bears are the only remaining undefeated men's teams in the country and are considered by many to be its clear top two teams.
Illinois earned the top No. 2 seed, with Villanova, Alabama and Houston joining it on that second line. Virginia earned the top No. 3 seed and Iowa earned the top No. 4.
Breaking down by conference, the Big Ten is home to three of the top five seeds and four overall, while the Big 12 has five of the top 16.
One of the challenges the selection committee faces this year is how to seed teams impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Virus protocols have forced many games to be postponed or canceled, with some programs going on shutdowns lasting anywhere from a week to several.
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The full Top 16 is below:
1. Gonzaga
2. Baylor
3. Michigan
4. Ohio State
5. Illinois
6. Villanova
7. Alabama
8. Houston
9. Virginia
10. West Virginia
11. Tennessee
12. Oklahoma
13. Iowa
14. Texas Tech
15. Texas
16. Missouri
The committee's rankings rely partly on the NET, which is in its third season of use after replacing the Rating Percentage Index (RPI). The NET functions as a primary tool in evaluating Division I men's basketball teams but is not the sole factor that determines a team's ranking.
In the past, the Top 16 reveal has proved to be pretty predictive of the eventual real thing. In 2017, 15 of the 16 teams retained their top-four seeding in the final field of 68. In 2018 it was 13 of 16, and in 2019 it was 11 of 16 (in 2020, the tournament was canceled due to COVID-19).
There are four weeks and roughly one month remaining until Selection Sunday, which falls on March 14 this year. The 2021 men's NCAA tournament, which will take place entirely in the state of Indiana due to the pandemic, will begin on Thursday March 18 with the First Four. The first full day of tourney action will be on Friday, March 19 after the NCAA adjusted this year's schedule.