Bets and analysis for Thursday’s Game 3s in the Western Conference featuring Mavericks-Jazz, Warriors-Nuggets and Grizzlies-Timberwolves.
Two of the more exciting first-round series are shifting locations to the lower-seeded teams’ arenas. The same is happening for Warriors-Nuggets when Game 3 tips off Thursday night in Denver, though Golden State dominated in the first two games.
Grizzlies-Timberwolves was tabbed as a series to watch even before the playoffs began and the pair of games in Memphis did not disappoint—though they were both decided by double digits. Now, the teams head to Minnesota for Game 3.
With no Luka Dončić, Mavericks-Jazz could have been a boring blowout. Dallas, however, refused to let that happen when it won a gutsy Game 2 at home Monday. That win extended the series. Now, the games shift to Salt Lake City where there’s optimism around Dončić returning to the lineup Thursday or Saturday for Game 4.
Regular season record: 117-113-2
Play-in/playoff record: 9-13
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Brandon Dill/AP
No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies vs. No. 7 Minnesota Timberwolves (Series tied, 1-1)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Grizzlies -1.5 (-118) | Timberwolves +1.5 (+100)
Moneyline: Grizzlies (-125) | Timberwolves (+105)
Total: Under 236.5 (-110) | Over 236.5 (-110)
The home team won every regular-season meeting between these teams. The Timberwolves ended that trend Saturday with a convincing upset win in Memphis. The Grizzlies rebounded in Game 2 on their home floor and won by an even larger margin Tuesday to even the series. Now the venue moves north to Minnesota, where the Timberwolves are a decidedly better team (26-15) than they are on the road (20-21).
Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins’ adjustments won Game 2. He went away from Steven Adams early after his rebounding leader picked up a pair of quick fouls and was rendered largely useless in Game 1. Bringing Brandon Clarke and Xavier Tillman off the bench to occupy the frontcourt alongside Jaren Jackson Jr. was an upgrade on offense and defense and it helped the Grizzlies minimize Karl Anthony Towns’ impact—he had 15 points in the second game after scoring 29 in the first game). Memphis shoots (37.5) and makes (28.5) the most free throws per game in the postseason, and it’s not just Ja Morant getting to the line, though he did take 20 free throws in Game 1.
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Minnesota still hasn’t had all three of its stars play well at the same time. It’s been a rough go for D’Angelo Russell, who’s averaging 10 PPG on 23% shooting. Anthony Edwards and Towns are both having a good series, though neither followed up their Game 1 performance and they both contribute to the T-Wolves’ playoff-leading 18.5 turnovers per game. Minnesota simply isn’t going to win many games where it doesn’t reach triple digits, especially against another top-ranked offense like Memphis. The winner of each game has broken 120 points—so far, that’s the magic number.
Jenkins now has a blueprint to limit Towns that worked, Russell has yet to make a major impact on the series and the Grizzlies even kept Edwards largely in check in Game 2. Offense is always going to be there for Memphis with Morant at point guard, but defense is what will propel this team in the playoffs. It impressed in that regard by holding the No. 1-scoring offense to 96 points and two sub-20 quarters last time out.
For as good as the Timberwolves are at home, the Grizzlies played just as well on the road. Give me Memphis winning on the road to take control of the series.
BETS: Grizzlies -1.5 (-118); Desmond Bane Over 23.5 Points + Rebounds (-110)
Tony Gutierrez/AP
No. 4 Dallas Mavericks vs. No. 5 Utah Jazz (Series tied, 1-1)
Time: 9 p.m. ET | NBA TV
Spread: Mavericks +6.5 (+100) | Jazz -6.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Mavericks (+240) | Jazz (-300)
Total: Under 210.5 (-110) | Over 210.5 (-110)
Dončić is officially questionable for Game 3 in Utah. The Mavericks’ guard strained his left calf in the regular season finale last Sunday and missed the first two games of the series. His team “stole” a home game without him thanks to a career showing by Jalen Brunson, who went for 41 points, and Maxi Kleber, who lit up the Jazz defense with eight three-pointers. The series now shifts to Salt Lake City where the Jazz won both regular-season meetings—Dallas won games at home as well.
So far in the battle between the No. 7 defense and No. 1 offense, defense is winning. Utah had the highest offensive rating during the regular season and the seventh-highest scoring offense (113.6 PPG). The Jazz are averaging 101.5 PPG in the playoffs, tied for the 12th-worst mark among postseason teams. Donovan Mitchell has struggled shooting—he’s averaging better than 30 PPG on 29.5 shot attempts per game—and Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley have combined for 13 points after averaging more than 13 PPG in the regular season. Conley didn’t score in Game 2.
Dallas is punishing Utah’s porous perimeter defense with its guard play and array of capable shooters. Brunson got anywhere he wanted Monday and either pulled up from midrange or found a teammate for one of the team’s 22 three-point makes.
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Rebounding has been the biggest cause for concern for the Mavs. They’re tied for the worst rebounding team in the playoffs (32.5 per game) and the Jazz are tied for first (51.5). Gobert and Hassan Whiteside are imposing their size on Dallas’ slight big men.
If Dončić plays, this line will inevitably shift. Regardless, I like the Mavericks plus the points on the road. Dallas was above .500 on the road this season and the games it dropped in Salt Lake City were by five- and four point-margins. Unless Utah adjusts its defensive approach to deny the Mavs the penetration and easy kickouts that led to victory in Game 2, the problems for the Jazz will only continue.
I’m expecting more points for both teams and I don’t see Utah pulling away. Conley isn’t himself, Mitchell isn’t shooting well, Gobert isn’t involved on offense and Bogdanovic is the only Jazz player who’s elevated his play in the postseason.
BETS: Mavericks +6.5 (+100); Over 210.5 (-110); Bojan Bogdanovic Over 21.5 Points (+100)
Jeff Chiu/AP
No. 3 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 6 Denver Nuggets (Golden State leads series, 2-0)
Time: 10 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Warriors -2.5 (+100) | Nuggets +2.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Warriors (-133) | Nuggets (+110)
Total: Under 223.5 (-110) | Over 223.5 (-110)
Nikola Jokić is not getting any help on either side of the ball against the Warriors. The likely back-to-back MVP has his hands full battling Draymond Green on offense and then he watches from the paint as Golden State’s three guard lineup of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole slice up Denver’s perimeter defense.
The Warriors have the No. 1 offensive rating in the playoffs by a wide margin. Their guard trio averages at least 20 PPG and the team is shooting better than 53% from the field and 44% from three. Golden State is losing the rebounding battle by a thin margin but what it’s giving up in size with its small-ball lineup it’s more than making up for with offensive firepower.
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Denver lost the first two games by an average of 18 PPG and there’s not much working in its favor that could turn the series around. The reports of a return for Jamaal Murray or Michael Porter are not promising and Aaron Gordon, who’s supposed to be the No. 2 with Jokić’s co-stars out, is having a dreadful series.
The way the first two games have played out, this series is looking like it could be a sweep. With Jokicć you can never rule out a 35-point triple double in which he simply wills the Nuggets to victory. He hasn’t played badly by any means—but he also hasn’t shouldered the load to the degree that his team needs to eke out a win (or come close to covering, in this case). Homecourt is usually a strength for Denver with the altitude advantage, but the team actually had a better record on the road this season.
I’m on the Warriors to win, likely by a closer margin than the first two games, though still by three or more points.
BETS: Warriors -2.5 (+100); Jordan Poole Over 3.5 Assists (-144), Will Barton Over 4.5 Rebounds (-138)
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