Betting analysis of the MLB American League Division Series between the third-seed Guardians and two-seed Yankees.
Game 1 of the American League Division Series kicks off Tuesday as the New York Yankees host the Cleveland Guardians at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx.
Here are SI Sportsbook's odds for the ALDS: Guardians (+170) | Yankees (-250)
The Guardians are fresh off a 2-0 Wild Card series victory vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. Pitching dominated that series as only four total runs were scored across 25 innings of Wild Card baseball. Cleveland scored three of those runs, including a dramatic walk-off homer from rookie Oscar Gonzales in the 15th that punched Cleveland's ticket to the ALDS.
The Yankees earned their ALDS berth by winning the AL East, finishing with 99 wins. They will be well-rested coming off a first-round bye.
The Yankees swept Cleveland early in the season 3-0.
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Gerrit Cole starts in Game 1 for the Yankees, and he should be in control of this matchup. Cole is known to surrender the long ball, but the Cleveland Guardians logged the second-fewest home runs in the league during the regular season. After Cole, Nestor Cortes and Luis Severino should get the nod. As a whole, Yankees starters have combined for the fourth-best ERA in the league (3.51) and have allowed only a .222 BA (third-best) to opposing hitters.
The Yankees bullpen will be without Aroldis Chapman and Zach Britton, but they have still been excellent, allowing an ERA of only 1.17 across the last two weeks of the regular season. Ace Shane Bieber has been especially dominant down the stretch, posting a 2.48 ERA post-All-Star Break. He has allowed only 0.81 home runs per nine in 2022. Triston McKenzie has pitched to a sub-3 ERA with the 16th-best K/9 rate in MLB, and Cal Quantrill has been effective, logging 15 wins this season.
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Offensively the Yankees have a major advantage because of, you guessed it, Aaron Judge. The likely AL MVP mashed his way to 62 homers, setting a new AL record, and doesn't show any signs of slowing down. Giancarlo Stanton is also healthy again, and Matt Carpenter could be available off the bench. This Yankees offense scored 4.98 runs per game this year, second only to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
On the other side of this matchup, the Cleveland Guardians (+900) surpassed everyone's expectations, upsetting both the White Sox (-222) and the Minnesota Twins (+550) to win the AL Central. Cleveland won the AL Central, not with power—they rank 28th in ISO—but with patient and timely hitting and speed. The Guardians ranked 8th in batting average, third in stolen bases, and third in runs scored with RISP during the regular season.
Jose Ramirez was the key to the Guardians' first Wild Card victory with his two-run home run shot, and rookie Oscar Gonzales got the walk-off in the 15th inning on Saturday. This is a pesky and patient lineup, with Steven Kwan, Andres Giminez, Ahmed Rosario, and Josh Naylor all able to contribute to Cleveland's success.
Cal Quantrill will get the start on Tuesday for Cleveland. Quantrill logged 15 wins in the regular season and should be well-rested. After Quantrill, ace Shane Bieber surrendered only one run in the postseason and finished the regular season with a 2.48 ERA post-All-Star Break. Triston McKenzie is up next. McKenzie pitched to a sub-3 ERA with the 16th-best K/9 rate in MLB during the regular season. On Saturday, he pitched six innings of two-hit, no-run ball vs. the Rays. The Cleveland starter combined for the 10th-best ERA during the regular season.
The Guardians bullpen has been a major bright spot, pitching to the fifth-lowest ERA, converting 74% (third-best) of their save opportunities during the regular season, and allowing zero runs to score in their two Wild Card games.
Betting Predictions
Despite the peskiness of the Guardians ball club, there shouldn't be any real competition for this Yankees team with the edge in both hitting and pitching and home-field advantage. It's been a good run for Cleveland, but it should end here.
• Bet: Yankees to win ALDS (-250)
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