Bets and analysis for Tuesday’s Game 2 Hawks-Heat, Timberwolves-Grizzlies and Pelicans-Suns first-round NBA playoffs matchups.
The three series picking back up Tuesday night were not particularly close in Game 1.
The Heat handled the Hawks on Sunday afternoon and scored a 115-91 victory. Trae Young was held to single digits in that game and Duncan Robinson led all scorers with 27 off the bench for Miami.
The Timberwolves went into Memphis and stole a game off the Grizzlies on Saturday afternoon, 130-117. Ja Morant has been stewing on social media for days and appears ready to exact revenge after Anthony Edwards exploded at FedEx Forum.
And in perhaps the most mismatched series of the first round, the Suns beat the Pelicans, 110-99, in the desert.
Will the Heat, Timberwolves and Suns take commanding 2-0 leads or will the Hawks, Grizzlies and Pelicans even the score?
Regular season record: 117-113-2
Play-in/playoffs record: 5-8
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Lynne Sladky/AP
No. 8 Atlanta Hawks vs. No. 1 Miami Heat (Miami leads series, 1-0)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Hawks +7.5 (-110) | Heat -7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Hawks (+240) | Heat (-300)
Total: Under 219.5 (-118) | Over 218.5 (+100)
Atlanta got punched in the mouth Sunday. That was after the Hawks played two do-or-die games last week to earn the final playoff spot in the East and then traveled to Miami on short rest. Following a win over the Cavaliers in Cleveland on Friday night, Atlanta flew south for the early game while the Heat had a week to rest and prepare.
Center Clint Capela (knee) was out for Game 1, which put pressure on second-year center Onyeka Okongwu, who finished with more fouls (four) than points (three). And Miami’s fearsome defense—primarily Bam Adebayo—denied Trae Young any room to get comfortable and he responded with a season-low eight points.
While the Hawks didn’t get much offense from their usual scorers (Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Kevin Huerter combined for 22 points), the Heat welcomed a three-point barrage from Duncan Robinson. Robinson, who was benched in a down shooting year, tallied eight threes and finished with 27 points, both matching season-highs. Jimmy Butler had a good game (21 points) and coach Erik Spoelstra will get more from Tyler Herro (six points) and Adebayo (six points) on offense going forward.
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To come close to beating Miami, the Hawks have to score much more than they did Sunday. Atlanta’s defense is not capable of limiting Miami to less than 100 points, and that’s not its game anyway. Eight points from Young will never cut it in the playoffs and neither is four assists. Young led the NBA in total points and assists in the regular season and he must channel that against Miami to avoid this series getting ugly.
I’m picking Atlanta to cover because I think Young rebounds and will be more prepared to counter the way the Heat defend him on switches. John Collins should also be better off in his second game back from injury. The Hawks lost their first game of the season against Miami, 115-91, the same score as Sunday, and were outscored by a combined seven points over the next three. They’re capable of keeping it close.
BET: Hawks +7.5 (-110)
Brandon Dill/AP
No. 7 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies (Minnesota leads series, 1-0)
Time: 8 p.m. ET | NBA TV
Spread: Timberwolves +6.5 (-110) | Grizzlies -6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Timberwolves (+225) | Grizzlies (-275)
Total: Under 240.5 (-110) | Over 240.5 (-110)
Any ideas the Grizzlies had about this series being easy evaporated when the buzzer sounded on Game 1. The Timberwolves stole a road win in dramatic fashion as Edwards lit up Memphis for 36 points. The game felt closer than the score indicated.
Morant scored a team-high 32 points (16 of which came at the free-throw line) and he got some assistance from Dillon Brooks (24 points) and Desmond Bane (17 points). Memphis’ front court was a liability and the defense was a concern. Steven Adams was a non-factor in 24 minutes. He grabbed three rebounds, did not score and let Karl-Anthony Towns (29 points and 13 rebounds) get the best of him inside. Jaren Jackson Jr. swatted seven shots but missed all five of his three-point attempts and finished with five fouls, which made it difficult for Taylor Jenkins to keep him on the court.
The Timberwolves outrebounded the Grizzlies, outshot them and got a huge pick-me-up off the bench when Malik Beasley came in the game and scored 23 points and Jaden McDaniels added 15 points and some phenomenal defense. Minnesota’s Big 3 got the best of Memphis’ and, more importantly, the T-Wolves seemed to have the edge in terms of depth, long a hallmark of this Grizzlies team.
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Memphis has to adjust. The defense sold out to stop D’Angelo Russell on Saturday and it worked—he finished with 10 points on 2-11 shooting, but that doesn’t matter when Edwards and Towns combine for 65. I expect to see more Brandon Clarke, who double-doubled off the bench in Game 1, and Xavier Tillman to counter Towns.
Bane and Brooks have to do a better job of staying in front of Edwards, which is admittedly a big ask. Three-point randomness evening out might also benefit the Grizzlies, who hit nine fewer threes than the Timberwolves last time out.
After Jan. 1, Memphis only lost back-to-back games twice. The Grizzlies can’t afford another loss to go down 0-2, and it’s not in their nature to lose two in a row, especially at home where they went 30-11 in the regular season.
BET: Grizzlies -6.5 (-110); Anthony Edwards Over 24.5 Points (-106)
Matt York/AP
No. 8 New Orleans Pelicans vs. No. 1 Phoenix Suns (Phoenix leads series, 1-0)
Time: 10 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Pelicans +10.5 (-125) | Suns -10.5 (+105)
Moneyline: Pelicans (+410) | Suns (-549)
Total: Under 221.5 (-110) | Over 221.5 (-110)
The Pelicans are outmatched against the Suns. Phoenix held them to 34 points in the first half, a paltry number even for New Orleans’ 19th-ranked offense. The Pelicans scored more in the third quarter (37) than they did for the opening 24 minutes, but the Suns’ 19-point halftime lead was plenty to fall back on for a double-digit win.
Nothing Phoenix did felt particularly remarkable by its admittedly astronomical standards. Chris Paul impressed with a 30-point, 10-assist showing and Devin Booker added 25 points and eight dimes. Deandre Ayton finished with 21 points and nine boards and Mikaal Bridges and Jae Crowder did what they do—play good defense and spot up. Still, it wasn’t some clinic the Suns ran. Even their 110 points were below their season average. They’re just that much better than the Pelicans.
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New Orleans outrebounded Phoenix by 20 and still lost by 11 points. Jonas Valancunias grabbed 25 rebounds (12 offensive) but the Pelicans shot so poorly it didn’t matter. Brandon Ingram shot 6-17 to finish with 18 points, Valanciunas was 7-21 for 18 and C.J. McCollum hit 9-25 and had a team-high 25 points.
The answer to closing the gap is simply shoot better, but Phoenix’s defense makes that hard from every spot on the floor.
I’m expecting a more lopsided total in Game 2. Booker is capable of much more than 25 points and Monty Williams didn’t get a whole lot from his role players. This will be a sweep, it’s just a matter of how competitive those four games will be. This will almost certainly be the last game of the series in Phoenix and it should be a dominant victory.
BET: Suns -10.5 (+105)
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