Hawks-Heat, Timberwolves-Grizzlies, Pelicans-Suns Game 5 Bets

Apr 26, 2022

Bets and analysis for Tuesday’s Game 5s between the Hawks-Heat, Timberwolves-Grizzlies and Pelicans-Suns.

The first playoff team was eliminated Monday night when the Celtics swept the Nets. The second elimination could take place Tuesday in the Heat-Hawks series.

Miami leads Atlanta 3-1 and hosts Game 5 at its own arena, where it was one of the best teams in the regular season and took the first two games of this series.

Trae Young has been severely limited by the Heat’s fearsome defense and Jimmy Butler has been sensational through four games.

The later games—Timberwolves-Grizzlies and Pelicans-Suns—have been much more exciting. Each series is tied 2-2 heading into Game 5, which is somewhat surprising given the massive seeding differences. The series head back to Memphis and Phoenix, respectively, and the lower-seeded teams have each already won a road game.

Regular season record: 117-113-2
Play-in/playoff record: 21-22

Check the Latest Odds and Lines at SI Sportsbook

No. 8 Atlanta Hawks vs. No. 1 Miami Heat (Miami leads series, 3-1)

Time: 7 p.m. ET | NBA TV
Spread: Hawks +7.5 (-118) | Heat -7.5 (+100)
Moneyline: Hawks (+260) | Heat (-333)
Total: Under 217.5 (-110) | Over 217.5 (-110)

This series has not been particularly close. Each Miami win came by an average of 19.3 points; the Hawks’ lone victory was by one point. Atlanta had the opportunity to even things at home Sunday and instead put up a series-low 86 points, nine of which were scored by Young, who finished with single digits for the second time in four games. Instead, Miami took a commanding 3-1 lead behind Butler’s game-high 36 points.

The Hawks have looked out of place and have been unable to get contributions from their biggest stars, while the Heat are getting help from their entire rotation. Young is averaging just 16.5 points and as many assists (six) and turnovers per game. Center Clint Capela made his debut in Game 4 and was not himself and John Collins, who’s also working his way back from injury, has not played up to his capabilities.

The only Atlanta player who’s elevated his play during the postseason is De’Andre Hunter, who, surprisingly enough, leads the team in scoring.

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Miami hasn’t gotten anything significant from players not named Butler, but it hasn’t mattered. Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro are both playing like shadows of their regular-season selves. Meanwhile, Kyle Lowry (hamstring) missed Game 4 and will not play Tuesday night either. Still, the Heat have the No. 2 defensive rating in the playoffs and the No. 1 net rating despite not playing up to their full potential.

I originally picked the Heat to win in six games, but I’m going to amend that to five. Atlanta only stood a chance in this series if Young improved on his regular-season average of close to 30 points and 10 assists per game—he’s hardly performing at 50% of that productivity. Miami smells blood and the Heat (29-12 during the regular season) don’t lose at home.

BETS: Heat -7.5 (+100); DeAndre Hunter Over 14.5 Points (-108)

No. 7 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies (Series tied, 2-2)

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Timberwolves +6.5 (-118) | Grizzlies -6.5 (+100)
Moneyline: Timberwolves (+205) | Grizzlies (-250)
Total: Under 232.5 (-110) | Over 232.5 (-110)

Saturday’s game was the first of the series decided by less than nine points. Minnesota scored a 119-118 win at home to even the series. Karl-Anthony Towns (33 points and 14 rebounds) had a dominant game and Ja Morant’s shooting struggles continued (9-31 on the road). Now things head back to Memphis, where the Timberwolves stole Game 1 and the Grizzlies responded in Game 2 with a 28-point win.

The T-Wolves have still yet to have good games from their Big 3 overlap. Anthony Edwards has cooled off after his 36-point playoff debut, D’Angelo Russell’s best performance of the series came during the Game 3 collapse and he’s been abysmal otherwise and Towns has had high highs and very low lows. In wins, Towns averages a 30-point double-double. In losses, he’s barely scoring in double-figures.

It’s been the Desmond Bane show for Memphis the past two games. He hit 15 threes across the two games in Minnesota and is the team’s leading scorer for the series. Morant’s finishing in the paint has not been what it was in the regular season, though his playmaking has improved. Brandon Clarke continues to be a revelation and his play has been hugely important with Steven Adams being taken out of the lineup and Jaren Jackson Jr. often taking himself out of games due to his excessive fouling.

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Perhaps the biggest storyline for both teams has been fouls and ensuing free throws. The T-Wolves shot 40 Saturday and won—the Grizzlies attempted 25. The team that takes more free throws is 3-1 in the series (Game 1 is the exception).

I expect the free-throw advantage to favor Memphis on its own court. And Morant, who shoots much better at home than on the road, should be a bigger scoring threat Tuesday. The Grizzlies have been the superior team in this series so far and that will continue at FedEx Forum. Only two teams had better regular-season home records than Memphis. So long as Minnesota doesn’t get good outings from Towns, Edwards and Russell on the same night, this game and series is the Grizzlies’ for the taking.

BET: Grizzlies -6.5 (+100); Desmond Bane Over 20.5 Points (-106); Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 13.5 Points (-116); Karl-Anthony Towns Over 10.5 Rebounds (+104)

Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

No. 8 New Orleans Pelicans vs. No. 1 Phoenix Suns (Series tied, 2-2)

Time: 10 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Pelicans +6.5 (-110) | Suns -6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Pelicans (+225) | Suns (-275)
Total: Under 215.5 (-110) | Over 215.5 (-110)

New Orleans scored the most lopsided win of the series over the weekend. The Pelicans beat down on the Devin Booker-less Suns for a 118-103 win to even the series, 2-2. That was after Phoenix eked out a three-point win in the first game at Smoothie King Center. Now, this surprisingly entertaining series heads back to the desert, where the Suns won Game 1 and were shocked in Game 2.

The Pelicans have the No. 2 offensive rating in the playoffs so far, only behind the Warriors. And that’s against the No. 3 regular-season defense. Brandon Ingram has played like a superstar in this series—he’s averaging close to 30 PPG, distributing the ball well and shooting 51/50/88 splits. His partner C.J. McCollum has been a knockdown shooter as well and the rest of the rotation including Jonas Valanciunas (16 rebounds per game) and rookies and defensive pests Herb Jones and Jose Alvarado have made a perfect foil for Phoenix.

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This series is coming down to Chris Paul. Fair or not that the 36-year-old has to shoulder so much of the scoring load with Booker sidelined, that’s what he’s being tasked with. So far, the results have been mixed. Paul had 28 points and 14 assists in Game 3 and followed that with four points in Game 4. He got some assistance from Deandre Ayton, but it’s really all on Paul to orchestrate the offense and get his 20-plus points. That’s hard enough without Alvarado hounding him for 94 feet.

It’s difficult to pick against the Pelicans after what they did to the Suns on Sunday in the fourth quarter. But Phoenix should respond at home, and I can feel a Paul revenge game coming. He clearly did not enjoy the final 12 minutes of that most recent loss, evidenced by a hard foul for which he was hit with a flagrant.

It’ll take a monster game from Ingram to propel the Pelicans to a win or cover, which isn’t out of the question, but I’m putting my trust in Paul.