Bets and analysis for Wednesday’s NBA play-in tournament games between the Hornets and Hawks and Pelicans and Spurs.
The second day of the NBA play-in tournament is here and the stakes are even higher. It’s win or go home for four teams, three of which have active playoff droughts they are trying to end.
In the early slot in the Eastern Conference, the Hawks host the Hornets in what might be a race to 130 points with little defense expected to be played by either side and a host of three-pointers bound to fall. Atlanta made a deep playoff run a season ago as the 5-seed, while Charlotte saw its season end in embarrassment in this spot.
The winner gets the Cavaliers in Cleveland on Friday with the eight seed up for grabs.
Later on, the Pelicans play the Spurs in the Big Easy. These teams have the two worst records of any teams in either conference participating in the play-in. Still, if whichever team wins Wednesday beats the Clippers in Los Angeles on Friday, it’ll enter the playoffs as the 8-seed all the same.
Regular season record: 117-113-2
Playoffs record: 0-2
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Matt Kelley/AP
No. 10 Charlotte Hornets (43-39) vs. No. 9 Atlanta Hawks (43-39)
Time: 7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Spread: Hornets +5.5 (-110) | Hawks -5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Hornets (+175) | Hawks (-213)
Total: Under 235.5 (-110) | Over 235.5 (-110)
The Hornets and Hawks have similar team profiles: Terrific offense, terrible defense. They each arrived here in different ways, though.
Charlotte is led by a trio of capable scorers composed of LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges and Terry Rozier. They get some help from secondary options like Kelly Oubre Jr., Montrezl Harrell or P.J. Washington, but Ball, Bridges and Rozier combine to average just less than 60 ppg, which accounts for more than half of the Hornets’ 115.3 ppg.
The Hawks run their entire offense through Trae Young and for good reason—he led the league in total points and assists this season. Young averages 28.4 ppg and 9.7 assists, both top-five marks. Atlanta surrounds its star guard with capable shooters—Kevin Huerter, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Danilo Galinari, Deandre Hunter—to spread the floor and allow him to create in the pick and roll with center Clint Capela. Atlanta will likely be without forward John Collins (finger/foot), who hasn’t played since March 11.
The Hornets, with their No. 22 defensive rating, excelled at defending Young this year. He averaged just 20.8 ppg against his division opponent and had his worst game of the season against Charlotte: nine points on 3-12 shooting and six turnovers in a loss.
Atlanta is even worse on defense, ranking 26th. The Hawks have been able to contain Ball in three games this season. He shoots just 35% from the field against them. Bridges, however, averaged 26 ppg against Atlanta and went for 30 twice in the season series. Hunter will have his hands full.
I’m going with the Hawks, who will have the best player on the court.
The Hornets have nearly identical records at home and on the road but Atlanta thrives on its home court where it’s gone 27-14 compared with 16-25 on the road. Hosting this game is huge for the Hawks, who have won their last four games on their court, including wins over the Nets and Warriors. It’s important to know about Young’s struggles against the Hornets this season, but they don’t necessarily scare me off Atlanta or his props. He thrives on big stages and this is certainly one.
BET: Hawks -5.5 (-110)
Poor shooting aside, Young averaged more than 10 assists per game against Charlotte during the regular season. In four games in April, he’s averaging 31 points and 11 assists per game to put him right at 42. To win this game, Young has to get his teammates involved, which means he’ll be in the neighborhood of 10 dimes. And Young could hit the over on this prop with his scoring output alone.
PROP: Trae Young Over 42.5 Points + Assists (-120)
Gerald Herbert/AP
No. 10 San Antonio Spurs (34-48) vs. No. 9 New Orleans Pelicans (36-46)
Time: 9:30 p.m. | ESPN
Spread: Spurs +5.5 (-118) | Pelicans -5.5 (+100)
Moneyline: Spurs (+175) | Pelicans (-213)
Total: Under 225.5 (-118) | Over 225.5 (+100)
New Orleans trails San Antonio by a few spots in both offensive and defensive ratings. The Spurs aren’t particularly good by either metric, so the Pelicans, a few positions away from being tied with a below-average offense and defense, aren’t great either.
The Pelicans do have a bit of a size advantage with Jonas Valanciunas and Jaxson Hayes inside and beat out the Spurs when it comes to star power with Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum.
The season series was split 2-2 and these teams met twice in the past month to give us recent results to ponder. On March 18, New Orleans blitzed San Antonio in a 124-91 win. The Pelicans won the rebounding battle, 58-40, and forced 16 turnovers. About a week later, the Spurs won a close game, 107-103. McCollum went for 32 points and San Antonio’s first-time All-Star Dejounte Murray logged a triple-double.
Murray missed some time near the end of the season due to an illness and subsequent conditioning issues but he’s a full go for Wednesday.
Controlling the pace will be important for both teams considering the different speeds they each run at. The Spurs operate at the sixth-fastest pace in the league with Murray at the point and a fleet of young wings like Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell and Lonnie Walker IV getting out in transition with him. The Pelicans run at the 21st-slowest pace. They’re a bit more methodical with the two-center lineup they employ.
Neither team is known for its outside shooting—they’re both bottom five in the league in three pointers made per game. It could still be a high-scoring game, though, especially if Ingram (back) is able to play.
I expect the Pelicans to win this game, but I don’t feel strongly enough about them to pick them to cover. New Orleans is only slightly better on its home court than on the road, so there’s not a massive advantage at play here. San Antonio also only finished two games back from the Pelicans despite trading Derrick White midseason and New Orleans’ moves indicating the plan was to vie for a postseason spot. This will be a close contest, and I don’t expect the winner to move on to the playoffs.
BET: Spurs +5.5 (-110)
Murray averaged 8.3 rebounds per game this season, so he only has to meet that figure against a Pelicans team that’s about league average at rebounding. It’s not a good sign he only corralled one board in his first game back from his absence against the Mavericks, but that performance is a clear outlier. He averaged better than eight rebounds in March before that game and had four games with double-digit boards.
PROP: Dejounte Murray Over 7.5 Rebounds (-125)
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