Now that the groups are set for the compressed opening stage, who will go through to the last 16, and where may the surprises occur?
The draw for the Champions League always evokes mixed emotions. On the one hand, this is the start for the big clubs of the competition that, in its later stages, produces the best football that has ever been played. But on the other, the group stage can be a slog, the disparity between the rich and the less well-off so stark, the qualifiers so predictable, that the pre-Christmas fixtures can feel like an exercise less in elite sport than in filling the TV schedules and making money.
This season, though, is a little different, in that the six games of the group stage will be compressed into a nine-week spell (which itself is interrupted by an international break) to be completed before the World Cup. There is no time for teams that get off to a bad start to reset. An injury that might have kept a player out for two games could keep him out for four. Fatigue may become a factor. There are more unknowns in this group stage than there have been in a long time—although the underlying sense of more and more games that mean less and less remains.
Where, then, may the shocks occur? Which elite clubs could be in danger of missing out on the last 16? Here’s an assessment of the eight groups determined by Thursday’s draw, along with our picks to reach the knockout rounds:
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GROUP A
Ajax, Liverpool, Napoli, Rangers
After three league games, Liverpool has no wins. It’s not quite crisis time, but the sale of Sadio Mané and numerous early-season injuries have left Jürgen Klopp’s side lacking its familiar intensity. Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold have not been at their formidable best and there is a sense of lethargy about the squad that suggests the hangover from missing out on the Premier League and Champions League titles last season lingers. There is little comfort to be found for Liverpool in the Champions League, with Napoli and Rangers representing two of the toughest away trips imaginable.
That said, the Pot 1 side, Ajax, may not quite be the force of old. After five seasons under Erik ten Hag that yielded three league titles, it is now managed by Alfred Schreuder, who managed Hoffenheim and was assistant at both Ajax and Barcelona before winning the Belgian title with Club Brugge last season. He has to deal with a remarkable exodus of talent. Lisandro Martínez, Andre Onana, Sébastien Haller, Noussair Mazraoui and Ryan Gravenberch have all departed, with Manchester United target Antony perhaps soon to join them.
Napoli is also in transition with Kalidou Koulibaly, Dries Mertens, Arkadiusz Milik and David Ospina having left, but Luciano Spalletti’s side, inspired by the brilliant young Georgian Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is top of the Serie A table, with nine goals scored in two wins so far this season. Rangers showed its European mettle in reaching the Europa League final last season. The impact of a pulsating Ibrox is well attested, but progress to the group stage for the first time since 2011 was achieved via a canny and resilient performance away against PSV Eindhoven.
Predicted to go through: Liverpool, Napoli
GROUP B
Porto, Atlético Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, Club Brugge
For Atlético, the story seems always the same: Can Diego Simeone adapt his football to a changing world? What usually happens is that he attempts to be more open, then it starts to go wrong and sometime in the winter he goes back to basics. The squad is relatively stable, although economic problems are mounting, but defeat to Villarreal in its first home game this season did not suggest a side likely to be challenging for La Liga’s title.
Sérgio Conceição’s Porto could take advantage. Porto has become habitually awkward opponents in Europe in recent years. A tough draw saw it exit in the group stage last season, but the year before it eliminated Juventus. There’s been the usual summer flux at the Portuguese champion, with six players departing—among them Fabio Vieira for Arsenal—and four players arriving, but domestic form has so far been unaffected, with three wins out of three in the league.
The situation at Bayer Leverkusen is far less rosy. Although Gerardo Seoane’s side is largely unchanged from last season when it finished third in the Bundesliga, it has started this campaign dismally, losing four out of four, including a German Cup exit at the hands of third-flight Elversberg. Club Brugge took the Belgian title in the playoffs last season, but its manager then left for Ajax, to be replaced by Carl Hoefkens. Brugge has a recent record of making life difficult for grandees in the group stage, but this feels like a season of transition.
Predicted to go through: Porto, Atlético Madrid
GROUP C
Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Inter Milan, Viktoria Plzeň
After Barcelona’s controversial summer of spending, made possible only by the sale of significant assets, there comes an immediate test. Bayern beat it twice last season as Barcelona slumped out in the group stage, and also inflicted the greatest humiliation of all, beating Barça 8–2 in the 2020 quarterfinal. Having brought in Raphinha, Franck Kessié, Andreas Christensen, Jules Koundé and, most significantly, Robert Lewandowski, who has his own point to make to Bayern, this should give an indication of whether Barça is again ready to compete with the best.
Bayern has begun life without Lewandowski impressively in the Bundesliga, winning three out of three while building up a goal difference of +14, but domestic form is rarely an issue as it looks set for an 11th Bundesliga title in a row. Mané and Matthijs de Ligt have been signed, but the question is how to step up a level in big European games and, given the lack of challenge at home, that may not be easy.
It took Romelu Lukaku only two minutes of his return to Serie A to score, and his partnership with Lautaro Martínez, who slightly surprisingly has remained at the club, is probably key to Inter’s hopes. Although it’s not even clear what those hopes are these days, as it has been 11 years since Inter reached the quarterfinals. Viktoria Plzeň, meanwhile, is unbeaten in nine this season; although, having swept aside HJK, performances against Sheriff and Qarabag in a relatively kind qualifying draw were grinding rather than imposing. It’s a clear long shot in a group featuring three other clubs who have each won multiple European titles.
Predicted to go through: Bayern Munich, Barcelona
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GROUP D
Eintracht Frankfurt, Tottenham, Sporting Lisbon, Marseille
There is a logic in the Europa League winners being handed a place in Pot 1 of the Champions League, but this is a season in which that means there is one seeded team that is significantly weaker than the others. Frankfurt finished 11th at home last season, has not won a Bundesliga game yet this season and has already been hammered 6–1 at home by Bayern. There have been major changes to the squad, the most significant being the loss of Filip Kostić to Juventus.
Tottenham has the stadium, and perhaps now it has the manager and the squad. Antonio Conte’s energy and drive has transformed the mentality and, while some doubts remain about the way the midfield can be overrun, the arrival of Richarlison, Yves Bissouma and Ivan Perišić have added depth as well as ability.
This has been a summer of spending at Marseille, with $75 million net being splashed on trying to build upon last season’s second-place finish in France. Milik, Alexis Sánchez, Jordan Veretout, Chancel Mbemba and Matteo Guendouzi are perhaps the most notable arrivals, while Boubacar Kamara has left for Aston Villa. Having finally ended a 19-year title drought by winning the league in 2021, Sporting finished six points behind Porto last season and has already suffered a 3–0 defeat at Porto this season. A 3–3 draw with Braga on the opening day has raised major doubts about the defensive solidity of Rúben Amorim’s side.
Predicted to go through: Tottenham, Marseille
GROUP E
AC Milan, Chelsea, RB Salzburg, Dinamo Zagreb
Chelsea’s start to the season has been inconsistent. Against Tottenham, although it didn’t win, it looked exceptionally good, but then it was demolished by Leeds. If there is a common theme, it has been a failure to take its chances, and without a significant arrival before the end of the window, it’s hard to see that changing. More surprising is the defensive vulnerability that cost the Blues a win against Spurs and underlay the capitulation at Leeds, reminders that after major summer departures, this is a team in transition.
Winning the Scudetto for the first time in 11 years was a first step in restoring AC Milan to greatness; the next stage is European progress, but it has been 10 years since AC Milan, the seven-time European champion, last reached the quarterfinal. Divock Origi and Charles De Ketelaere have arrived to augment the attack, but the most significant transfer activity may be the loss of Kessié, who departed for Barcelona on a free transfer.
On the one hand, RB Salzburg is by far the most successful Austrian side in recent memory, and reached the last 16 last season. On the other, it pursues a frustrating existence, losing players every summer and having constantly to rebuild. Ten of last season’s squad have gone, the most significant probably the goalscorer Karim Adeyemi, who moved to Dortmund, and the two Leeds recruits, Brenden Aaronson and Rasmus Kristensen. Dinamo Zagreb remains a classic mezzanine club. It has won 16 of the last 17 Croatian titles, but has only won three of 36 group-stage games. It’s too good domestically but not good enough for Europe, and there’s no real reason to think that will change under former Croatia boss Ante Čačić.
Predicted to go through: Chelsea, AC Milan
GROUP F
Real Madrid, RB Leipzig, Shakhtar Donetsk, Celtic
Real Madrid’s success in last season’s Champions League was based on the individual excellence of Karim Benzema, Luka Modrić and Thibaut Courtois, coupled with an extraordinary self-belief. Changes have been limited, with Casemiro leaving and Aurélien Tchouaméni arriving, although Eduardo Camavinga is likely to be the short-term beneficiary of the Brazilian’s departure. Antonio Rüdiger stiffens the defensive line, but this remains an aging squad.
The season began with RB Leipzig optimistic it would represent the main challenge to Bayern in the Bundesliga this season, but even this early there must be reassessment, having lost 5–3 to Bayern in the Super Cup before taking just two points from the first three games of the season. Nordi Mukiele and Tyler Adams have both left, with Timo Werner rejoining. Celtic was as impressive in winning the league title last season under Ange Postecoglou, the only negative being elimination at the group stage of the Europa League followed by immediate elimination from the Conference League by Bodø/Glimt. There have been no major departures while the likes of Aaron Mooy and Cameron Carter-Vickers bring high-level experience.
Shakhtar began the Ukrainian season on Wednesday this week, eight months after its last league fixture. That Ukrainian teams are playing again is remarkable, albeit that Shakhtar’s home games in the Champions League will be staged in Warsaw. Perhaps patriotic zeal can provide an edge, but this is a squad that has lost numerous players since the war began.
Predicted to go through: Real Madrid, RB Leipzig
GROUP G
Manchester City, Sevilla, Borussia Dortmund, Copenhagen
Last season followed the familiar pattern of European failure for Manchester City, as it conceded twice in the final minutes to throw away a semifinal it had largely dominated against Real Madrid. The arrival of Erling Haaland and the sales of Gabriel Jesus and Raheem Sterling would seem to signal a switch away from the usual patient build-up to at least offer the possibility of a more direct approach. There had, perhaps, been a sense that City had to be controlling games to win them; Haaland may offer greater ruthlessness and the possibility of burgling goals when City is not playing well.
The Norwegian faces an early reunion with Dortmund, although in truth the group stage is unlikely to throw up many of the problems he was signed to resolve. For Dortmund, Edin Terzić represents a return to its roots. He was an assistant to Klopp between 2010 and ’13 and, after stints at Beşiktaş and West Ham, he returned to the club in ’18 and has held various roles there since. Haller, Adeyemi and Anthony Modeste have arrived to fill the hole left by Haaland, though the former is out indefinitely after being diagnosed with testicular cancer.
Sevilla also looks relatively unthreatening. Defeat to Osasuna and then a draw at home to Valladolid was not the ideal start to the season in Spain, and that despite a summer in which the only player of real significance it lost was Diego Carlos. A repeat of last season’s vague title challenge seems unlikely, and it will take a major improvement for Julen Lopetegui’s side even to finish fourth again. Having regained the Danish title under Jess Thorup, FC Copenhagen is back in the group stage after a six-year hiatus but remains a cut below its opposition.
Predicted to go through: Manchester City, Borussia Dortmund
GROUP H
PSG, Juventus, Benfica, Maccabi Haifa
PSG has scored 17 goals in its first three league games of the Ligue 1 season, with Lionel Messi seemingly re-energized. Some of the football produced by him, Neymar and Kylian Mbappé has been stunning. But it has been against Ligue 1 sides and, as PSG has regularly found in the past, that bears little relation to European progress. Christophe Galtier is the latest coach tasked with trying to get the nest of vipers pointing in the right direction—and that footage of Mbappé stopping during a counter when the ball wasn’t played to him suggests the decadence that still lies at the heart of the club.
Fourth in each of the last two seasons, Juventus is hoping to come out of transition. There were signs of improvement in the second half of last season, but there is pressure on Max Allegri to show that he is capable of restoring Juve to the sort of level it was at before he was edged out in an attempt to change the style of the squad. Paul Pogba, Ángel Di María and Kostiç have arrived, with de Ligt, Aaron Ramsey and Paulo Dybala all departing.
Benfica may have lost Darwin Núñez this summer, but Roger Schmidt’s side has started the season impressively, dismissing Midtjylland and Dynamo Kyiv in the playoffs by a combined score of 12–2. If it can take points from the Pot 1 and 2 sides, the group could suddenly become very interesting. Maccabi Haifa, in its first group stage appearance for 13 years, is the lowest-ranked side remaining in the competition, but a 4–0 win away to Olympiakos in qualifying, and the way it survived a thriller against Red Star Belgrade, suggested the Israeli side will not be a pushover.
Predicted to go through: PSG, Juventus
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