After finishing with over 1,200 rushing yards en route to an MVP, what can we expect from the dual-threat QB in 2020? SI Gambling Insider Frankie Taddeo dives in.
The debate will rage all summer long amongst fantasy players as to when to step out and invest high draft capital on Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. In only three years removed from winning the Heisman Trophy, he set the NFL single-season rushing record for a quarterback after gaining 1,206 yards on the ground in 2019. In 2019, Jackson became only the second quarterback in NFL history to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards in a season, helping him earn NFL MVP honors in just his second season in the league.
Michael Vick previously held the quarterback single-season rushing record thanks to his dynamic season with the Falcons in 2006; gaining 1,039 yards on the ground.
What Are the Oddsmakers Saying?
Jackson ran for 695 yards his rookie year, but only started seven games. After exceeding 1,200 in 2019, FanDuel Sportsbook currently has Jackson’s total rushing yards number in 2020 set at 919.5 yards.
Jackson’s Fantasy Value in 2020
In his first full season as the Ravens starter, the former Louisville standout completed 66.1 percent of his passes for 3,127 yards and 36 touchdowns. Jackson guided the Ravens to a 14-2 record and an AFC North crown through his performance both through the air and on the ground. Even more impressive is Jackson finished as the league leader in touchdown passes; despite only 401 attempts (26.7 per game) ranking 26th amongst all NFL QBs.
Jackson’s talents were on full display when he took his game to the next level in 2019. While leading the club with 6.9 yards per carry, he also found the endzone seven times on the ground; delighting fantasy owners who invested mid-round draft capital in acquiring him last summer.
To put his rushing feat in perspective, Jackson’s 1,206 rushing yards last season ranked sixth among all runners in 2019. That’s ahead of star running backs including Saquon Barkley, Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones and Alvin Kamara. Arizona Cardinals rookie Kyler Murray posted the second most rushing yards with 544, a distant 662 yards behind Jackson.
For where he was selected in drafts at the Fantasy Football World Championships (FFWC), Jackson surpassed all value and carried fantasy owners in 2019. 2020 projections indicate another monster year is on deck for Jackson and the Ravens, who will compete with Kansas City Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes for the first quarterback off draft boards this summer. The big difference is with an early ADP, Jackson will command valuable first or second round draft capital from any fantasy player looking to acquire him this season.
2020 Schedule
Betting Advice:
Baltimore was the top scoring offense last season, averaging 33.2 points per game, slotting in second overall with 407.6 yards per game. As we often stress to bettors here at SI Gambling, it's imperative to always shop around for the best numbers. After doing so, we discovered that Caesars Sportsbook in Las Vegas currently has the over/under for Jackson’s rushing yards in 2020 set at 935.5 yards (-110).
Jackson eclipsing 1,000 yards again would mark just the third time a quarterback has accomplished that feat in a single season.
RavenCountry reporter Todd Karpovich points out that although the Ravens have playmakers on both sides of the ball, there is one player who easily lands atop his list.
“Jackson became just the second player in NFL history to win the NFL's Most Valuable Player by a unanimous vote, joining Tom Brady in 2010… His main focus is now leading the Ravens to a Super Bowl victory.”
Although each of the previous three quarterbacks to rush for more than 900 yards in a season posted significantly less the following year, my model has Jackson not seeing the regression so many are anticipating for this upcoming season.
Since both Mahomes and Jackson are so closely ranked in my projections, I will be sure to own as many shares of both Mahomes and Jackson as I can in fantasy leagues this season. My model has his rushing total in 2020 with a projection of 952 yards. Therefore, I see value in going over the number currently being offered by FanDuel sportsbook.
The Play: OVER 919.5 rushing yards (-110)
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