J-Rod vs. Adley Is One Heck of a Rookie of the Year Race

These young stars are neck-and-neck for the award as their wayward franchises are competing for the same wild-card spot.

In 1989 voters gave the American League Rookie of the Year award to Orioles reliever Gregg Olson over a talented Mariners center fielder by the name of Ken Griffey Jr. In ’92, Pat Listach won over Kenny Lofton. Geovany Soto took home NL honors in 2008 over Joey Votto, one year before Chris Coghlan beat out Andrew McCutchen. The point being, with respect to the aforementioned winners, that the Rookie of the Year crown does not always end up going to the player with the brightest career ahead of him.

Those voting for the 2022 AL Rookie of the Year will not need to worry about such a fate.

That’s because the two front-runners—Baltimore’s Adley Rutschman and Seattle’s Julio Rodríguez—have separated themselves from an impressive pack of first-year players and appear destined for stardom for the next decade and beyond. The result is one of those races that we’ll likely look back on as both a proper recognition of two superb debuts, as well as a prelude for what was to come.

But to settle the debate at hand, the question is: Which young superstar has the inside track at winning the award?

First, a bit of context for just how great these two have been to this point. In hitting his 20th home run of the season Wednesday, Rodríguez, 21, became just the 12th rookie ever with at least 20 homers and 20 stolen bases in the same season, and just the second to do so before turning 22 years old. The other? Mike Trout, who hit 30 home runs with an absurd 49 stolen bases in 2012, his age-20 season.

Rutschman, meanwhile, is in some elite company as far as first-year backstops go. Among rookie catchers with at least 300 plate appearances, Rutschman has the fourth-highest OPS+ (133) since integration, trailing only a pair of Hall of Famers—Carlton Fisk and Mike Piazza—as well as Tom Haller, who went on to make three All-Star teams in the 1960s. Measured by OPS+, Rutschman is having a better offensive debut season than other Hall of Famers like Johnny Bench, Yogi Berra and Craig Biggio, who was a catcher for his first four seasons.

Given how the season started for both of these young stars, it’s remarkable that they’ve cemented themselves as the clear top two. Rodríguez made Seattle’s Opening Day roster and looked completely overmatched to begin the year, posting a .544 OPS in April with no home runs and 30 strikeouts in 81 plate appearances (though he did go a perfect 9-for-9 in stolen base attempts). From that point on, he’s been one of the league’s best players, ranking sixth among all outfielders in fWAR (3.4) since May 1 and fifth in wRC+ (148). The only thing that’s slowed him down is a wrist injury that cost him the first part of August.

Rutschman did not break spring training with the Orioles after dealing with a triceps injury to begin the season. He spent 20 productive games in the minors before making his big league debut May 21, when he, too, struggled out of the gates. He hit .176/.256/.257 through his first 20 games before going on a tear immediately thereafter, posting a .936 OPS in his next 55 games. Since June 15, Rutschman ranks fourth among all hitters in fWAR (3.5), trailing only Aaron Judge, Nolan Arenado and Freddie Freeman. He has more walks (37) than strikeouts (36) during that stretch, displaying a control of the strike zone that belies his inexperience.

Adding an extra element to this race is that both players are playing for young, exciting teams contending for postseason spots. From 2017 to ’21, the Orioles had lost more games than any other team and were projected to produce more of the same this season. Rutschman’s arrival offered Baltimore some glimmer of hope after years of ineptitude, and once he got hot, so too did the O’s. They were 16–24 (.400) before Rutschman’s call-up and then went 11–12 (.478) during his initial struggles—better, but still not great. But since Rutschman’s turning point on June 15, including their one-run loss to the Blue Jays that day, the Orioles are 38–18 (.679) and sit just three games back of the AL’s third and final wild-card spot entering play on Friday. The team they’re chasing? Rodríguez’s Mariners, who are trying to reach the playoffs for the first time in more than 20 years after coming achingly close to doing so last season.

Obviously, this is an individual honor, and unlike the MVP award is not conflated with team success when evaluating which player is most deserving. But narratives certainly play a role in any awards race (See: CODA’s best picture win at this year’s Academy Awards), so with the postseason push looming, which player impacts his team’s winning the most?

It turns out, they both do quite a bit, ranking first and second among AL rookies in win probability added, which weighs a player’s context-dependent production against how much their actions increase the team’s chances of winning. It’s Rodríguez (2.69) holding the edge over Rutschman (1.46) for now, a lead that holds up even if you account for Rodríguez’s advantage in plate appearances. If the star-power narrative is your bag, it’s hard to argue with J-Rod’s case, even though Rutschman, too, has plenty to offer as a long-term face of the game.

It also appears the J-Rod Show is going to be staying in Seattle for a long, long time. As of Friday afternoon, the Mariners and J-Rod were nearing a massive 14-year extension, according to MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. When finalized, the deal will be worth $210 million guaranteed with the potential to increase to over $400 million with incentives, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

With over five weeks left to play, this race is too early—and too close—to call. Rutschman’s current form is stronger than Rodríguez’s, who hasn’t found his groove yet after returning from his wrist injury. That would appear to give the Baltimore backstop the slightest of edges at the moment, though hopefully Rodríguez isn’t still hampered by the injury.

The debate over which rookie stands above the rest is heading for the homestretch. Given how each player seems poised to earn plenty of hardware in the years to come, though, the stretch run of the season isn’t the end for these two—it’s just the beginning.

Editors’ Note, Aug. 26, 1:32 p.m. ET: This story has been updated to include the news of Rodríguez’s extension with the Mariners.

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