The Jets have won more than five games just once in the past six seasons and their over/under at SI Sportsbook is 5.5 wins for the upcoming season.
After six consecutive losing seasons, the Jets upgraded their roster massively in the offseason. But will that be enough for New York turn it around in 2022?
With Buffalo, New England and Miami standing in the way, the odds are stacked against the Jets (+1600) winning the AFC East for the first time since 2002. New York, who dubiously owns the longest NFL postseason drought, is likely a year or two away from contending for a playoff berth last witnessed by Gotham faithful back in 2010.
AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: Bills | Patriots | Dolphins
New York hopes second-year quarterback Zach Wilson can dominate the headlines for his play on the field as much as he has for his off-the-field romantic relationships.
Wilson, who only completed 55.6% of his passes while being sacked the third-most times (44) of any NFL signal-caller, should find more time in the pocket after the addition of guard Laken Tomlinson and the potential return of talented offensive tackle Mekhi Becton. The Jets also upgraded the talent around Wilson by adding Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin.
The Jets have won more than five games only once since 2016, posting a dismal 27-70 (.278) record over that span. This season, oddsmakers have placed New York’s regular season win total at 5.5 games juiced heavily to the over at -200 odds.
Let’s take a deeper look at every game on the Jets ‘schedule, according to the early lines assigned by oddsmakers.
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John Minchillo/AP
New York Jets Over/Under: 5.5 - O (-200) | U (+140)
2021-2022 record: 4-13; Last AFC East
AFC East future odds: +1600 (Fourth)
AFC future odds: +6600 (15th)
Super Bowl future odds: +15000 (Tied-31st)
Key additions: OG Laken Tomlinson, DB D.J. Reed, TE C.J. Uzomah
Key losses: S Marcus Maye, WR Jamison Crowder, RT Morgan Moses
Key rookies: DB Ahmad Gardner, WR Garrett Wilson, EDGE Jermaine Johnson
Jets Country Offseason Grade: A-
“The Jets made significant improvements on both sides of the ball this offseason, bolstering position groups that needed to be addressed. Their secondary is much stronger, New York’s deep pass rush is even deeper and on offense, second-year quarterback Zach Wilson is surrounded by plenty of weapons. He’ll have a real opportunity to show what he’s capable of and build on his rookie year, utilizing the playmakers around him. New York might not be ready to end their postseason drought—the longest in the NFL—but they certainly will enter next season with a better team, a club that added a mix of young talent and experienced veterans over the last few months.”—Max Goodman
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SCHEDULE
Week 1: Ravens
Week 2: At Browns
Week 3: Bengals
Week 4: At Steelers
Week 5: Dolphins
Week 6: At Packers
Week 7: At Broncos
Week 8: Patriots
Week 9: Bills
Week 10: BYE
Week 11: At Patriots
Week 12: Bears
Week 13: At Vikings
Week 14: At Bills
Week 15: Lions
Week 16: Jaguars
Week 17: At Seahawks
Week 18: Dolphins
The Jets kick off the 2022 season as six-point home underdogs hosting Lamar Jackson and the Ravens at MetLife Stadium. This will not be an easy task as John Harbaugh has guided the Ravens to an impressive 10-4 mark in season openers, while the Jets are just 1-5 in their last six games on opening weekend.
In Week 2, the Jets will head to Cleveland to take on a Browns squad that may have quarterback issues if Deshaun Watson is suspended. If Watson is out of the lineup, this looks like New York’s first win of the season.
Gang Green returns home in Week 3 to face Joe Burrow and the AFC champion Bengals. The Jets are five-point home underdogs against a Cincinnati team it upset, 34-31, in Gotham last season when backup quarterback Mike White (405 passing yards; three touchdowns) out-dueled Burrow (259 passing yards; three touchdowns). Cincinnati will have revenge on its mind in this game.
Zach Wilson leads the Jets into Pittsburgh as 3.5-point road underdogs in Week 4 to take on a Steelers club in a state of transition following quarterback Ben Roethlisberger‘s retirement. Although this game is winnable on paper, history is not on New York’s side as Pittsburgh has dominated the all-time series at home, posting a 10-1 mark since 1970. The Jets lone win in Pittsburgh over that span came in 2010 when Braylon Edwards hauled in eight receptions for 100 yards in a 22-17 upset win.
John Minchillo/AP
In Week 5, New York returns home to face Miami as 2.5-point home underdogs. It will be interesting to see if Sauce Gardner draws Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle.
The schedule does not get any easier the next two weeks when the Jets head into Lambeau as 9.5-point road underdogs against Green Bay, followed by a road trip to Denver as 7.5-point road underdogs against Russell Wilson and the Broncos.
On a potential three-game losing streak, Robert Saleh’s squad returns home for two tough matchups with AFC foes New England and Buffalo ahead of its Week 10 bye.
Oddsmakers have installed New York as a 2.5-point home underdog against a Patriots team that has won 12 consecutive meetings, including 20 of the last 22. In Week 9, Josh Allen brings the Bills into town as seven-point road favorites. The Bills own a four-game winning streak and are 6-2 in their last eight meetings at MetLife Stadium.
The Jets head into their bye week potentially only earning two wins in their first nine games. Coming out of the break, the Jets head to New England as six-point underdogs for their second meeting of the season with the Patriots.
Thanksgiving week finally sees the Jets in the role of betting favorite for the first time all season. The young squad is a 2.5-point home favorite when it hosts Justin Fields and the Bears. The Jets will likely emerge with their third victory of the season.
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A Week 13 showdown at Minnesota as 4.5-point road underdogs does not bode well against a Vikings club that will likely be fighting for the NFC North title. A road trip the following week to Orchard Park reveals a 9.5-point spread facing this year’s MVP betting favorite Josh Allen (+700), who owns a 5-2 record against Gang Green.
In Weeks 15 and 16, the Jets are favored in back-to-back home tilts with Detroit and Jacksonville as identical 2.5-point favorites in both games.
New York is a 1.5-point road underdog in its penultimate game at Seattle, potentially facing former quarterback Geno Smith, followed by the season finale in South Beach against Tua Tagovailoa and Miami as 5.5-point road underdogs.
Zach Wilson has all the tools around him to improve immensely in 2022. However, despite the likelihood of winning three of its last four games, New York would only finish with a record of 6-11 or 7-10 at best.
The juice (-200) on over 5.5 wins is "not worth the squeeze" making this market a complete fade despite the strong potential of six-plus victories. Instead, if you believe a turnaround is in store for the Jets, focus on the moneyline at healthy plus-odds on a weekly basis since the Jets will be underdogs in 14 of 17 games.
BET: Pass on Both the Over and Under
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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