Juan Soto’s Way-Too-Early Free-Agency Destinations

The Nationals star might be the first $500 million player when he hits free agency in 2025. Where might he end up?

When news broke Wednesday that star outfielder Juan Soto had turned down a reported 13-year, $350 million contract extension from the Nationals before the start of the interminable lockout, it shouldn’t have taken many by surprise. As anyone who’s watched an episode of Shark Tank knows, the first offer is usually a lowball, and that’s exactly what $350 million represents to perhaps the best position player in the game.

Soto’s accomplishments at such a young age are staggering. Through his age-22 season, he already owns a World Series championship, a batting title, two top-five MVP finishes and a ludicrous .301/.432/.550 career slash line across over 2,000 plate appearances. In three years he’ll be eligible for free agency, with a very real chance to become baseball’s first $500 million player.

Assuming we reach the point when Soto creates a bidding war, where might his possible landing spots be? The list of teams interested in adding Soto to the fold would include all 30 clubs, though the lofty price tag would obviously remove many franchises from the equation. As this pertains to the Nationals, Soto’s situation is more likely to be the second coming of Bryce Harper’s than that of the recently retired Ryan Zimmerman. Enjoy Soto while you can, Nats fans.

Though it’s a fool’s errand to try and speculate teams’ roster situations, payrolls and windows of contention three years ahead of time, that’s exactly what we’ll do here. Below are seven teams who could be in the best position to snatch up Soto as a free agent in 2025—surely the lockout will be over by then, right?

All projected and historical payroll figures are from MLB Trade Rumors.

Juan Soto, LF/RF
Free Agent: 2025 (3 more years, will be age-26 season)
2021 salary: $8.5 million (arb 1)
Spotrac market value: 15 years, $503 million

The Usual Suspects

Dodgers

No list of potential suitors for a big-ticket, high-profile free agent would be complete without the Dodgers, so we might as well get them out of the way. Los Angeles has had a payroll of more than $200 million in six of the last eight nonpandemic seasons, topping out at a whopping $272 million in 2015. The team’s current projected payroll for ’22 is $227 million, but the only players it has bigger money committed to beyond ’24 are Mookie Betts (signed through ’32) and Chris Taylor (signed through ’25, with a club option for ’26).

The Dodgers have some key players also set to hit free agency after the 2023 and ’24 seasons—Cody Bellinger, Julio Urías and Walker Buehler, not to mention Trea Turner, who’s a free agent after ’22 and could also command a deal north of $300 million. Soto and Turner are close dating back to their shared time in Washington, with Soto attending this year’s wild-card game at Dodger Stadium wearing Turner’s jersey. The breadcrumbs for a potential megadeal sending Soto to Los Angeles could start by the Dodgers re-upping with Turner on a long-term deal at some point in the next 12 months.

Mets

The Mets are firmly planted in the “win now” phase of operations, and it stands to reason that window will remain open three years from now. By that time, Max Scherzer’s record deal will have expired, as will the contracts of Robinson Canó (two years, $48 million), James McCann (three years, $32.45 million), Mark Canha (two years, $26.5 million) and Eduardo Escobar (two years, $20 million). Starling Marte will be in the final year of his deal in 2025, set to make $20.75 million in his age-36 season.

Owner Steve Cohen has demonstrated an aggressive approach and, at least for now, no signs of entertaining a tear-down-and-rebuild, so even if the current gambit of this offseason’s big push sours, it’s feasible he would be as willing to spend big money three years from now as he has been to this point of his ownership. The largest contract awarded in Mets history is the 10-year, $341 million deal Francisco Lindor just got. By the time Soto is on the market, Lindor will still have seven years to go on his contract.

Yankees

Would a list like this be complete without a mention of the Yankees? They actually have quite a bit of money tied up for 2025 and beyond, including the megadeals of Gerrit Cole (signed through ’28), Giancarlo Stanton (’27), DJ LeMahieu (’26) and Aaron Hicks (’25). That doesn’t even factor in a potential deal for Aaron Judge, who’s eligible for free agency after the ’22 season and who New York almost certainly would like to re-sign (and would need to pay a heck of a lot of money to do so).

But the history of professional baseball has shown us that when a high-profile, high-cost player becomes available, it’s always wise to keep an eye on the team wearing pinstripes.

I Could See It

Giants

San Francisco wasn’t exactly supposed to be good last year, and all the team did was win more games than it ever had in franchise history. The Giants might have a lot of older veterans on the roster, but no player is under contract beyond the 2024 season, giving the club enough financial flexibility to perhaps swing a deal for Soto.

Even more encouraging is the farm system, which is ranked No. 9 in the majors by The Athletic’s Keith Law. With a wave of current minor leaguers matriculating to the big leagues on cheap, club-controlled contracts over the next couple of years, the Giants could have a firm foundation of low-cost, younger players to create the ideal atmosphere to add a headline-grabbing superstar on the open market. San Francisco has acquired a superstar corner outfielder in his prime in the past—perhaps it can do so again with this generation’s premier hitter.

Cubs

The Cubs might be entering a reloading period at present, but don’t expect it to last as long as the previous one. The franchise bottomed out to build up its World Series–winning core, a group that it has almost entirely broken up in the intervening years. Chicago spent at least $170 million on its payroll for four straight years beginning in 2016, peaking at a franchise-record $203 million in ’19. The front office has throttled back in spending since then, but three years from now could be well positioned to open up the money spigot once more.

Don’t Be Surprised …

Mariners

The Mariners last made the postseason four presidents ago, and though they came achingly close in 2021, they’re far from a guarantee to break that streak this season. But the club is getting closer, particularly with a farm system that is widely viewed throughout the industry as ranking among the league’s best. It’s easy to envision big-name prospects blooming into major league contributors by ’25, at which point adding Soto could turn this longtime loser into something of a juggernaut.

Seattle has spent money this offseason, signing Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115 million deal that keeps him under club control through 2026. Beyond that, though, there is flexibility. Seattle’s previous record for largest contract was the 10-year, $240 million given to Robinson Canó in ’13. That move didn’t end well, but it shouldn’t discourage an ascendant Mariners club from attempting similarly bold moves in the coming years.

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Can You Imagine?!

Diamondbacks

Soto in Arizona? It may seem far-fetched now, but the Diamondbacks could be in a good spot to push their chips to the center of the table by 2025. Arizona posted three straight winning seasons from ’17 to ‘19 before things went south in ’20 and completely bottomed out in ’21. The next few years might bring more of the same, but there’s reason for optimism in the desert by virtue of a loaded farm system that featured seven prospects in Law’s top 100.

The Diamondbacks have no money committed after the 2024 season, when Madison Bumgarner’s contract comes to an end. Their largest contract ever came back in ’15 when they signed Zack Greinke for six years and $206.5 million. They gave that deal after the team had lost a combined 181 games over the previous two seasons. The Diamondbacks are in rough shape at present, but they’d just need a tiny bit of polishing up to get themselves in striking position for a blockbuster. Like the rest of the league, the countdown to prepare themselves for the bidding war of the century starts now.

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