Kansas or North Carolina? Expert Predictions for the Men’s National Title Game

Kansas or North Carolina? The SI college hoops staff makes its predictions.

Making Our Picks

And then there were two. 

After a disappointing start to the season, No. 8 North Carolina has marched itself straight to the title game. While the Tar Heels were busy taking down Duke and sending Mike Krzyzewski into retirement, No. 1 Kansas has quietly been on a mission this tournament. The Jayhawks have struggled in March in recent years, but are back in the championship game thanks to a lights-out performance against Villanova.

So who will finish this thing victorious? SI’s college basketball writers make their picks.

Pat Forde: North Carolina 71, Kansas 69

The setup is challenging for the Tar Heels—they played the more difficult semifinal, and must get themselves mentally and emotionally re-centered after the showdown with hated rival Duke. And then there is the question of center Armando Bacot's effectiveness after spraining an ankle late in the game Saturday. But Bacot says he will be in the lineup Monday, and if he's close to 100% that presents a problem for Kansas center David McCormack—he feasted on the smaller Villanova frontcourt but will more than meet his match in the paint against Bacot. Perhaps this comes down to which shooting star can carry his team, Kansas's Ochai Agbaji or Carolina's Caleb Love. I'll ride with the guy who scored 27 in the second half against UCLA in the Sweet 16 and 22 in the second half against Duke on Saturday. Leaky Black will make open looks difficult for Agbaji. Hubert Davis will cut down the national championship net that eluded him as a player in 1991, and North Carolina will capture its most improbable of seven national titles.

Kevin Sweeney: North Carolina 74, Kansas 70

Davis leads UNC to a championship in his first year as head coach in a tight game that sends Chapel Hill’s Franklin Street into a frenzy. The Tar Heels just seem to have a certain magic about them right now. Bacot is rebounding at a ridiculous clip, and his ability to control the glass should neutralize a traditional strength of Bill Self's Kansas teams. But the biggest difference-maker is Love, whose NCAA tournament outbursts could soon rival the likes of Shabazz Napier among March heroes of the past if he leads the Heels to victory Monday night. Love’s such an explosive scorer off the bounce and can help UNC get easy offense against a Kansas defense that has played well this tournament.

Jason Jordan: Kansas 78, North Carolina 67

I think people forgot there was another game Saturday night with all of the “Goodbye Coach K” hoopla tied in with North Carolina–Duke. Had they seen Kansas’s shellacking of Villanova, they would’ve witnessed the most consistent, offensive juggernaut in the tournament.

Yes, North Carolina’s high-octane barrage has drained 10 or more threes in four of the five games, but that stat did nothing to help Villanova on Saturday. The Wildcats managed 13 in their 16-point loss. Stamp this: Bacot will have 18 rebounds, bad ankle and all, but the Jayhawks’ committee is tough and scrappy, led by big-bodied McCormack who has dominated the last two games. Love has the ability to dominate, but tends to show that for only half of the game, and Black, while formidable defensively, won’t be able to slow Agbaji. All signs point to Self smiling while peering up at the Jumbotron during “One Shining Moment.”

Jeremy Woo: Kansas 71, North Carolina 65

The emotional high of beating Duke amid the biggest stakes imaginable likely leads to a dip in energy, even for a red-hot team like North Carolina. Kansas has been the most even-keeled team in the tournament and gets it done.

Molly Geary: Kansas 75, North Carolina 73

According to T-Rank, the Tar Heels have been the best team in the country since March 1 … but the Jayhawks are only a hair behind. UNC’s biggest challenge is to not let the Duke win linger; this was an unprecedented victory in the rivalry, but I believe Davis will have his guys locked in. Still, Kansas has been quietly gaining steam in this tournament, and comes in fresher and healthier. That will tip the scales in what could be another thriller.

At the Buzzer

It was all smiles from Aliyah Boston and the Gamecocks as they hoisted the championship trophy Sunday night. One year earlier, the South Carolina star was moved to tears after missing a layup at the buzzer vs. Arizona in the Final Four. This time, though, she made sure it was tears of joy that came at the end of her team’s season.

ICYMI … 

• Much like how they sat atop the standings all season long, the Gamecocks dominated from start to finish against the Huskies. Ben Pickman with more on South Carolina’s title win.

• In the end, Coach K didn’t have a date with destiny, his exit somber as Duke’s bitter rival celebrated. Pat Forde on a legend’s last ride and the torch passed on Tobacco Road.

• Leaky Black vs. Ochai Agbaji. Bill Self vs. Hubert Davis. Caleb Love vs. Dajuan Harris. Kevin Sweeney breaks down the matchups that will decide the UNC-Kansas title game.

From the Vault

On this day in 1988, “Danny and the Miracles” earned Kansas’s second national title with an 83–79 win over Oklahoma. The Jayhawks had 11 losses that season, but they pulled off the upset as a No. 6 seed, largely thanks to a remarkable tournament run from Danny Manning, who had 31 points, 18 rebounds and five steals against the Sooners. SI’s Curry Kirkpatrick recapped Manning’s incredible performance, which was essentially a one-man show from the senior forward. “Just average Danny stuff,” Manning’s teammate Chris Piper said at the time. Kansas will look to earn its fourth title in program history Monday night against UNC.