Kentucky Derby 148: Betting Profiles For Top Contenders, Value Long Shots

Analyzing the top contenders and value long shots for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. Zandon (3-1) is the betting favorite.

After watching Monday’s post-position draw for the “Fastest Two Minutes in Sports”, bettors are diving into the full field of 20 entrants for Saturday’s prestigious race.

It’s clear that despite finding two horses as the clear leaders in the morning-line betting odds in Zandon (3-1) and Epicenter (7/2), this year’s Kentucky Derby is a wide-open affair that offers a solid investment opportunity for sports bettors.

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Be sure to check SI Betting on Friday as I will have a full betting breakdown with exotic wagers as we look to go back-to-back after nailing the 2021 Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit ($26.20), as well as the exacta at whopping 251-1 odds!

2022 KENTUCKY DERBY BETTING PROFILES

TOP CONTENDERS

Zandon (3-1)
POST NUMBER: No. 10
JOCKEY: Flavien Prat / TRAINER: Chad Brown
RECORD: 4 starts: 2-1-1
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 107
RUNNING STYLE: Pace Presser

Meet the favorite for the 148th Run for the Roses. Zandon heads to Churchill Downs off a solid win in the Blue Grass Stakes, in which he earned a career-best 107 Equibase speed figure. The effort at Keeneland was a solid bounce back after hitting the board in third behind Epicenter and Smile Happy in the Risen Star back in February. Zandon could be a vulnerable post-time favorite, especially after diving in and seeing the emerging talent was also beaten by Mo Donegal in the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct last December. After drawing an ideal post, bettors will be looking for jockey Flavien Prat to try and help Chad Brown’s entry hit the board for the fifth consecutive time.

Epicenter (7-2)
POST NUMBER: No. 3
JOCKEY: Joel Rosario / TRAINER: Steven M. Asmussen
RECORD: 6 starts: 4-1-0
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 97
RUNNING STYLE: Pacesetter

It is hard to find any knocks against Epicenter especially after reviewing his history and discovering that he has found the winners circle in four of his six career starts. It is important to highlight that the second-overall betting choice owns a victory at Churchill Downs and has already defeated the posted morning-line favorite Zandon. After winning the Risen Star Stakes, the talented colt followed that up with a second consecutive score in the Louisiana Derby where he bested Zozos and Pioneer of the Nile. He will likely be forwardly placed after drawing down on the inside in the three-hole and that potentially could lead to being used up more than he would like on the front end. At likely short odds, Epicenter could be a horse sharp bettors try and beat in the top spot.

Messier (8-1)
POST NUMBER: No. 6
JOCKEY: John R. Velazquez / TRAINER: Tim Yakteen
RECORD: 6 starts: 3-3-0
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 107
RUNNING STYLE: Pace Presser

Named after NHL legend Mark Messier, the son of Empire Maker, will try and deliver the same way his namesake did back in 1994 for the Rangers. After crushing a small five-horse field by 15-lengths in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in February, the talented colt came up short in the Santa Anita Derby against trainer Tim Yakteen’s other talented colt Taiba. Messier drew into the Derby perfectly, breaking from the No. 6 hole, which could set up for a prefect trip with John Velazquez in the saddles.

Mo Donegal (10-1)
POST NUMBER: No. 1
JOCKEY: Irad Ortiz / TRAINER: Todd Pletcher
RECORD: 5 starts: 3-0-2
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 103
RUNNING STYLE: Closer

This talented son of Uncle Mo was the clear loser of the post position draw, earning the dreaded rail. Mo Donegal is one of three entries for trainer Todd Pletcher and this colt was last seen closing from the clouds in the Wood Memorial on March 9. His closing style could be an issue after drawing the rail, but if he can avoid serious traffic he could easily be among the biggest contenders when they close for home. We also need to highlight that ‘Mo beat morning-line favorite Zandon by a nose in the Remsen Stakes last December at Aqueduct. The question now becomes has jockey Irad Ortiz learned anything after being faced with the same dilemma with Known Agenda from the No. 1 post position last year?

White Abarrio (10-1)
POST NUMBER: No. 15
JOCKEY: Tyler Gaffalione / TRAINER: Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.
RECORD: 5 starts: 4-0-1
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 102
RUNNING STYLE: Pace Presser

This Saffie Joseph trainee heads into the race off a solid score in the Florida Derby, beating Charge It and Simplification. Tyler Gaffalione will look to make it three straight wins aboard White Abbario after holding off Simplification and Mo Donegal in a career best effort in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream park in February. Most expectations are bettors will not find double-digit odds on this son of Race Day come post time.

TOP LONG SHOTS

Taiba (12-1)
POST NUMBER: No. 12
JOCKEY: Mike Smith / TRAINER: Tim Yakteen
RECORD: 2 starts: 2-0-0
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 102
RUNNING STYLE: Pace Presser

Looking for the true wild card of this year’s Kentucky Derby? Well, look no further than Taiba. He upset stablemate Messier in the Santa Anita Derby and did so in impressive fashion, passing him with ease in the deep stretch. He has is 2-for-2 in his only two starts, but that’s the issue—only two lifetime career races under his belt. Taiba clearly does not have history on his side, as he is looking to become the first horse since Leonatus in 1883 to win the Kentucky Derby in only his third career start.

Charge It (20-1)
POST NUMBER: No. 8
JOCKEY: Luis Saez / TRAINER: Todd Pletcher
RECORD: 3 starts: 1-2-0
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 103
RUNNING STYLE: Pace Presser

Charge It, for trainer Todd Pletcher, might easily be the best value of any of the 20-1 or higher longshots in the race. The talented son of Tapit finished runner up to White Abbario in the Florida Derby in his last race and has posted some solid morning workouts leading up to the Derby. At healthy odds, this colt would give a massive 'charge' to exotic wagers if he is able to continue his improvement and hit the board in either first or second place for a fourth straight time in his career.

Cyberknife (20-1)
POST NUMBER: No. 16
JOCKEY: Florent Geroux / TRAINER: Brad Cox
RECORD: 6 starts: 3-2-0
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 100
RUNNING STYLE: Pace Presser

As we know, every year there is a “wise guy” horse in the days leading up to the Run for the Roses and this year that honor belongs to Brad Cox’s Cyberknife. The buzz around Vegas is that trackside talk continues to build following several sharp morning workouts. This son of Gun Runner has won three of his last four races, including most recently posting a solid victory in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. Cyberknife checks the experience box having previously raced over this surface twice after commencing his career in maiden races at Churchill Downs last year.

BY THE NUMBERS : EQUIBASE TOP SPEED FIGURES

Smile Happy (20-1)
POST NUMBER: No. 5
JOCKEY: Corey Lanerie / TRAINER: Ken McPeek
RECORD: 4 starts: 2-2-0
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 104
RUNNING STYLE: Closer

This son of Runhappy went off as the post-time betting favorite against both Epicenter in the Risen Star and Zandon in the Blue Grass Stakes and came up short both times. Can he now flip the script on the two top betting choices, as well as 17 others in the biggest race of the year? Seems like a big ask to believe he can land in the winners circle against this field. A minor share appears to be his ceiling, but if he is able to get a piece he would spice up exotic wagers in a big way.

Simplification (20-1)
POST NUMBER: No. 13
JOCKEY: Jose Ortiz / TRAINER: Antonio Sano
RECORD: 7 starts: 3-1-2
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 99
RUNNING STYLE: Pace Presser

The major issue with Simplification is it’s hard for handicappers to anticipate how his talents will translate outside the state of Florida as trainer Antonio Sano has never run him away from Gulfstream Park. He started off the year finishing second in the Holy Bull and then came back a month later and won the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes. In his most recent effort, he finished third in the Florida Derby behind White Abarrio and Charge It. As we can clearly see his Equibase Speed Figures are well below many other rivals in the Derby, but Simplification is worth a solid look as an exotic player on the bottom rung of trifecta and superfecta wagers.

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.

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