Las Vegas Raiders 2022 Fantasy Outlook

Jun 06, 2022

A dominating receiver like Adams provides much-needed life to the Raiders offense

The Las Vegas Raiders appear to have the best combination of WR1 (Davante Adams), WR2 (Hunter Renfrow), and TE (Darren Waller) in the AFC West, pointing to an exciting 2022 season. QB Derek Carr has never been an impact fantasy quarterback, but he now has the tools to shine. The Raiders would love for RB Josh Jacobs to add more explosiveness to his game to help score in the red zone, but he could be playing for his next contract with another team. Las Vegas may have the longest odds to win their division at SI Sportsbook, but they have the talent to be the best team.

OFFENSE
The Raiders had almost the season run/pass split (39.7/60.3) as the Chiefs in 2021, but they scored 20 fewer touchdowns (37). The addition of Davante Adams improves their scoring and how defenses will play against Las Vegas. This year, they should have more success in the passing game and growth expected running the ball in the red zone.

QUARTERBACKS

Derek Carr – click here for fantasy projections

Other options: Nick Mullens, Jarrett Stidham, Chase Garbers

RUNNING BACKS
The running back production for the Raiders regressed over the past two years, along with their yards per rush (4.44, 4.11, and 4.07). Derek Carr looked to his backs in the passing game (119/869/2 on 145 targets) at the highest career rate.

Josh Jacobs – click here for fantasy projections

Zamir White
The Bulldogs tend to have a deep bench of talented running backs, leading to multiple runners getting chances each season. White played in 15 games last year, but he gained only 931 yards with 11 touchdowns and nine catches on 169 touches. Over his three seasons, White finished with success in the run game (382/2,043/25) with minimal chances to catch the ball (17/132). Last year he had only one contest with over 100 yards rushing (14/105) and fewer than 15 touches in 13 games.

I feel for pro athletes who work hard to get stronger and build their bodies for success. Unfortunately, White has already blown out his right (2017) and left ACLs (2018). Georgia used him as a north/south runner, which led to plenty of contact in tight quarters. White had a grinder feel but flashed quickness and elusiveness when breaking free at the second level of the defense. When asked to make plays on the outside, he showed the ability to make defenders miss, thanks to a shimmy in his running style. White will make yards after contact while being at his best late games.

Fantasy outlook: White gives the Raiders early-down insurance for Josh Jacobs. He comes off the early draft board as the 59th running back with an ADP of 192 in the NFFC. White could work as a goal-line runner with value in short-yardage situations. Player to follow over the summer with a close eye to the direction and news about Josh Jacobs.

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Kenyan Drake
In his first season with Las Vegas, Drake struggled to make an impact over 12 games (545 combined yards with three touchdowns and 30 catches) before going down with a right ankle issue that required surgery. His best output came in PPR leagues over three games (21.30, 16.90, and 16.00 fantasy points). Over the past three years, he gained 4.0 yards per carry with help on passing downs (77/602/1).

Fantasy outlook: Drake brings veteran experience, and the Raiders will get him eight to 10 touches per game as long as he plays well. He’ll get in the way on passing downs while also facing competition from a couple of other pass-catching backs.

Other options: Brandon Bolden, Ameer Abdullah, Brittain Brown

WIDE RECEIVERS
The Raiders’ wideouts set three-year highs in catches (223), receiving yards (2,889), touchdowns (16), and targets (315). The addition of Davante Adams points to more follow-through in their wide receiver production in 2022.

Davante Adams – click here for fantasy projections

Hunter Renfrow
In his third season with Las Vegas, Renfrow emerged as a viable starting fantasy wide receiver, leading to 103 catches for 1,038 yards and nine scores on 128 targets. His best value came from Week 12 to Week 14 (8/134, 9/102, and 13/117/1). Renfrow had a floor of six catches in 11 of his 18 starts (including the playoffs). The Raiders gave him more than nine targets in only three matches (10, 14, and 11) despite his success. Renfrow worked as a chain mover (10.1 yards per catch) with an exceptional catch rate (90.5).

Fantasy outlook: This year, Renfrow projects as the third receiving option for Las Vegas behind Davante Adams and Darren Waller. His floor should be five catches for 50 yards in many games with some value in scoring. He comes off the 33rd wideout in the high-stakes market in the early draft season with an ADP of 74. Nevertheless, Renfrow is challenging to cover, and he will get plenty of targets this year. I’ll set the bar at 90 catches for 900 yards with five to seven touchdowns.

Keelan Cole
Twice over his five years in the NFL, Cole produced playable stats (42/748/3 and 55/642/5). However, he never had over 88 targets in a season. Last year the Jets gave him a minimal opportunity (28/449/1), but Cole did gain 15.0 yards per catch for the third time in his career.

Fantasy outlook: His overall resume gives him the inside track to be the Raiders’ WR3 in 2022. Cole offers sneaky big-play ability with occasional replacement value.

Demarcus Robinson
Over the past five seasons, Robinson worked as the Chiefs' third/fourth wide receiver. His best production (45/466/3 on 59 targets) came in 2020, but Kansas City gave him a weaker opportunity last season (25/264/3 on 41 targets). Robinson has never missed a game over six years in the NFL.

Fantasy outlook: The Raiders don’t have a clear-cut WR3 option this year, but there won’t be a lot of chances if Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller stay healthy.

Other options: Mack Hollins, Tyron Johnson, Dillon Stoner

TIGHT ENDS
With Waller injured for six games, the Raiders’ tight ends caught 40 fewer passes for 369 yards and eight touchdowns than in 2020 (128/1,419/13). Even with regression in stats, they still finished with 141 targets. This season, more chances should switch to the wide receiver position with Davante Adams added to the roster.

Darren Waller
After two excellent seasons (90/1,145/3 and 107/1,196/9), Waller missed six games in 2021 with ankle, knee, and back issues. He finished with two impact games (10/105/1 and 7/116) while averaging 8.4 targets (9.1 in 2020). Waller’s stats (55/665/2) projected over 17 games came to 85 catches for 1,028 yards and three touchdowns. Over his last 43 games, he averaged 14.80 fantasy points in PPR formats.

Fantasy outlook: With Davante Adams on the field., Waller should see weaker coverage on more plays. He should finish with a top-five tight end opportunity in targets with a healthy season. His ADP (55) in the NFFC ranks him as the fifth tight end in early June. Waller is on a path to catching 90 passes for 1,000 yards and five to seven touchdowns.

Other options: Foster Moreau, Jacob Hollister, Nick Bowers

KICKER

Daniel Carlson
Over the past two seasons, Carlson developed into a beast kicking field goals. He made 73 of his 78 chances (93.6%) with an edge from 50 yards or more (10-for-11). Carlson missed seven of his 116 extra points over the past three years. He finished with three field goals or more in nine of his 18 games (including playoffs).

Fantasy outlook: Based on his recent opportunity and success, Carlson should be a top-five kicker in 2022. His downside this year could be that the Raiders improve their touchdown efficiency in the red zone. I’m a fan of kickers who convert field goals, making Carlson an attractive option this draft season.

COACHING

Las Vegas gave Josh McDaniels his second head coaching job in the offseason. In his first experience with the Broncos, he went 11-17 with an early exit after 11 games in 2021. McDaniels worked in the Patriots’ system for 18 seasons. He spent much of the previous decade as their offensive coordinator, plus one season with the same position with the Rams in 2011.

Mick Lombardi takes over as the Raiders’ offensive coordinator. He’s been a coach in the NFL for nine seasons, with the last two coming as the wide receiver coach for New England.

Last year Las Vegas finished 18th in scoring (374 – 60 fewer than 2020) while ranking 11 in offensive yards.

The Raiders brought in Patrick Graham to run their defense. He also came through the New England coaching tree (seven years), earning him multiple jobs for three teams over the last six seasons (NYG – defensive line coach, GB – linebacker coach and run game coordinator, MIA – defensive coordinator, and NYG – assistant head coach and defensive coordinator).

They ranked 14th in yards allowed (their best finish since 2010) and 26th in points allowed (439). Las Vegas placed 20th or higher in points allowed over the previous 15 years.

FREE AGENCY

The Raiders added DE Chandler Jones, LB Jayon Brown, S Duran Harmon, DT Bilal Nichols, and CB Darius Phillips to their defense. Jones improves their pass rush, but he’ll start the year at age 32. Las Vegas lost CB Casey Hayward, LB K.J. Wright, and DT Quinton Jefferson to free agency. WR Keelan Cole was the only player signed to their offense. QB Marcus Mariota and WR Zay Jones found new homes in Atlanta and Jacksonville.

DRAFT

Las Vegas didn’t have a selection in the first two rounds of the 2022 NFL Draft. They picked up a pair of offensive linemen (T Dylan Parham – 3.26 and T Thayer Munford – 7.17) and two defensive tackles (Neil Farrell – 4.21 and Matthew Butler – 5.32). The Raiders' other additions came at the running back position (Zamir White – 4.17 and Brittain Brown – 7.29).

OFFENSIVE LINE

Las Vegas fell to 28th in rushing yards (1,617) with 14 rushing touchdowns. They averaged 3.9 yards per rush with only seven runs over 20 yards.

The Raiders climbed to sixth in passing yards (4,808) with 23 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. They gained 7.7 yards per pass attempt with 67 completions over 20 yards. Their offensive line allowed 40 sacks.

LT Kolton Miller is one of the better players at his position, with strength in both run and pass blocking. RT Alex Leatherwood failed to live up to his 2021 first-round pedigree in his rookie season. The interior of the Raiders’ offensive line doesn’t have a star player, pointing to Las Vegas having a below-par offensive line.

DEFENSE

The Raiders jumped to 19th in rushing yards allowed (1,943), with 18 touchdowns and 13 runs over 20 yards. Ball carriers gained 4.2 yards per carry.

Las Vegas worked their way to 13th in pass defense (3,789 yards), with quarterbacks tossing 29 touchdowns. Their defense finished with only six interceptions and 35 sacks. They allowed 6.6 yards per pass attempt.

The anchor of the Raiders’ defense is DE Maxx Crosby, who signed a $99 million deal in March. He has 25 sacks over his first 39 games in the NFL with excellent play defending the run. Las Vegas hopes to add more pressure on the quarterback with DE Chandler Jones (84 sacks over his last 99 starts). LB Denzel Perryman had his best year in the league in tackles (154) and his first full-time starting job at age 28. However, Las Vegas lacks star power at the second level of their defense. Their secondary has four potential upside players – S Trevon Moerig, S Johnathan Abram, CB Trayvon Mullen, and CB Nate Hobbs.

With a new coaching staff and a history of struggling on the defensive side of the ball, the Raiders can’t push higher up the defensive rankings without creating a smaller passing window and solidifying the interior of the defense against the run. As a result, I see more risk than reward, leading to minimal fantasy value in 2022.

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