Here are three blockbuster deals that should happen whenever the MLB lockout ends.
The NBA trade deadline is tomorrow, meaning many of the league’s best players are wondering whether they’ll need to change addresses by week’s end. It can be a pretty stressful situation. But they at least have a greater level of certainty about what they’ll be doing next week—playing the sport they’re paid to play—than MLB players, who are stuck in limbo during the lockout.
Free agents left unsigned before MLB locked out the players on Dec. 2 have no idea where they’ll be playing next season, or when the season will even start. Fans are largely left to throw up their hands, lament the lack of progress and concentrate on other aspects of life.
Those of us who make a living writing about baseball have to find some way to keep the lights on, though. With precious little news leaking out of negotiations on a new collective bargaining agreement, we can at least speculate how teams will act once a new CBA is signed. We’ve already ranked the top free agents and predicted where they’ll sign (twice, in fact, with a postlockout update), so let’s move our attention to the trade market and try to create some deals that make sense for both sides.
In the three proposed trades below, we’ll examine a group of contenders looking to raise their respective ceilings after each of them failed to win a playoff series last year. The sellers, meanwhile, were the only three teams who didn’t sign a free agent before the lockout—signaling their intention to punt on the 2022 campaign and perhaps beyond.
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA TODAY Sports
Yanks go all-in for Matt Olson
Yankees receive: 1B Matt Olson, RHP Chris Bassitt
A’s receive: SS Oswald Peraza, RHP Luis Gil, OF Everson Pereira, one lower-level, high-upside starting pitching prospect
Why it makes sense for New York
Let’s start off with some version of the A’s raid that Yankees fans have been pining for this offseason. New York is hungry for a new first baseman after neither Luke Voit nor Anthony Rizzo provided the sort of power Yankees fans are used to seeing from the position. While they combined for a 110 OPS+, the lineup needed more from a corner infield spot with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton acting as the only two consistent contributors. Adding Olson, who’s averaged a 35-homer pace over the last four seasons, would undoubtedly improve an offense that ranked just 19th in runs scored last season. The left-handed slugger is a two-time Gold Glove winner, to boot.
The Yankees are also reportedly on the prowl for another playoff-caliber starter. While New York’s rotation ranked top 10 in ERA, WHIP and strikeout rate last season, there was the sense that Gerrit Cole was the only starter who could be trusted in October. And it turned out not even he could record more than six outs against the Red Sox in the wild-card game. Bassitt would probably be favored over Sean Manaea as the A’s starter to bring into the fold after his second consecutive top-10 Cy Young finish. Both have only one year of arbitration remaining and possess pretty similar fielding-independent statistics over their careers.
New York is giving up a decent haul in this scenario, but would hang onto top hitting prospects SS Anthony Volpe and OF Jasson Dominguez. Gil would be missed the most this season if he delivers on his promising 2021 debut, but the Yankees have the pitching depth to soften the blow in the bullpen.
Why it makes sense for Oakland
Oakland has been rumored to be on the brink of a fire sale since early November, an inevitability the lockout has delayed. The only question is which players will be dealt.
The three prospects above would mark a solid return for a couple of players with a combined three years of team control remaining. Peraza is a consensus top-100 prospect and regarded as the best defensive shortstop in a Yankees system brimming with talent at the position. He’s no slouch on offense, either, posting 18 home runs and 38 stolen bases in 2021 across three levels, ending at Triple A. The 21-year-old could be ready for a call-up this year, and certainly in 2023. Gil wowed in his first two MLB appearances as a starter with the Yankees desperately thin on starters last season. His lack of a viable third pitch could keep him in the bullpen, but there’s nothing wrong with being a shutdown setup man. Pereira launched 20 home runs in just 49 games across the lower levels of the minors, and he doesn’t turn 21 until April. As his frame continues to grow, he profiles as a high-power, high-strikeout corner outfielder.
The A’s wouldn’t make out with any top-end starters in this deal, but there aren’t many, if any, hiding in New York’s system, anyway. Acquiring one of the team’s two stud shortstops of the future will have to do in this scenario.
Kelley L Cox/USA TODAY Sports
Mariners enter win-now mode
Mariners receive: 3B/2B José Ramírez
Guardians receive: RHP Emerson Hancock, LHP Brandon Williamson, OF Zach DeLoach, C Harry Ford
Why it makes sense for Seattle
Seattle was eliminated from playoff contention on the final day of the 2021 regular season, coming oh-so-close to ending the franchise’s record postseason drought. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto showed he intends to end that streak in 2022 with the signing of Robbie Ray, but the M’s could still use another big bat in the middle of its lineup after they ranked in the bottom five of batting average, on-base percentage and OPS last year.
Enter Ramírez, whose presence would give manager Scott Servais the ability to imitate the likes of the Dodgers and Giants by rotating many of his players around the diamond to keep them fresh. Ramírez would take over as the everyday third baseman following Kyle Seager’s retirement. Abraham Toro, who is currently projected to start at third, is best suited for a utility infield role. The switch-hitting Ramírez could also occasionally slide in at second base for Adam Frazier, who’s shown the ability to play left field.
Losing Hancock, the team’s 2020 first-round pick, would hurt. Dipoto has said there’s “no scenario” in which he’d move the team’s top prospects. But the Mariners possess plenty of pitching depth—seven pitchers are sprinkled throughout their top 11 prospects, as ranked by The Athletic’s Corey Brock—and 2019 first-round pick George Kirby is favored by most evaluators as the righthander most likely to front Seattle’s rotation for years to come. Kirby, elite outfield prospect Julio Rodríguez and young shortstop Noelvi Marte seem like the true untouchables in the system.
Ford is in a select group of high school catchers drafted in the first round, as Seattle took him with the No. 12 pick in the 2021 draft. He's very athletic for a catcher and could eventually move off the position if need be, but his enticing combination of tools—average, raw power and plus speed—would make him an All-Star behind the plate if his defensive skills there develop.
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Why it makes sense for Cleveland
It’d be nice if the Guardians would extend Ramírez rather than trade him. We know from past payrolls that the team’s owners have the deep pockets to do so even though Cleveland’s payroll is currently projected to languish around the bottom of the league once again. It also makes business sense, as it’d be a tough sell pairing a rebrand with a rebuild. But the fact of the matter is Cleveland fell under .500 last season for the first time since 2012. With the White Sox looking like a vastly superior squad, it may be time for the franchise to capitalize on the value of its superstar infielder if it can’t break ground on an extension. Last offseason, it waited to trade its other superstar infielder, Francisco Lindor, until he had only one year left on his contract and received a middling return from the Mets. If Ramírez is destined for the same fate, this is the time to trade him, when he still has two years of team control ($12 million in ’22, $14 million club option in ’23).
The franchise’s once-plentiful pipeline of pitchers has dried up a bit, at least at the minor league level. Hancock, the No. 6 pick in 2020, and Williamson, a ’19 second-round pick, would help restock it. Hancock boasted some of the best stuff in his draft class coming out of Georgia, and was finally able to flash his mid-to-upper 90s fastball and devastating slider in the minors last season after the pandemic delayed his debut. A right shoulder impingement shut him down early, but Hancock has indicated he’ll be ready to go in the spring and the soon-to-be 23-year-old appears to have a bright future. Williamson, a 6'6" Iefthander who struck out 153 hitters in 98⅓ innings between High A and Double A last season, could be ready for the big show in ’22, his age-24 season. In DeLoach, the Guardians would get a solid left-handed hitter who led the Mariners’ minor league system with 33 doubles last season. He could play any of the three outfield spots, which Cleveland has had trouble filling out with competent bats in recent years.
Hancock, Williamson and DeLoach all rank among the top-10 prospects of Seattle’s system and would represent a much more satisfying return than what Cleveland managed for Lindor, even if it’s still sort of a quantity over quality approach.
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Giants fill out their rotation
Giants receive: RHP Sonny Gray
Reds receive: OF Heliot Ramos, RHP Gregory Santos, RHP Ryan Murphy
Why it makes sense for San Francisco
The Giants’ current projected No. 5 starter is Tyler Beede, a 28-year-old with a 5.24 ERA in 24 career starts, the last of which came in 2019. San Francisco needs someone better starting every fifth day if it has a prayer of repeating its magical run to the division title. Most of the top free-agent rotation options were gobbled up before the lockout, so the Giants probably will be canvassing the league for a trade. I see a fit with Gray, a 32-year-old who’s familiar with the Bay Area after starring for Oakland from 2013 to ’17.
The righthander could serve as a steady hand in October, as his four career postseason starts outnumber any of San Francisco’s top four projected starters. Gray has never suffered a major injury at any level, and has thrived in the past pitching to Giants catcher Curt Casali, a former teammate with both the Reds and during college at Vanderbilt. His 3.49 ERA in three seasons with Cincinnati is better than it looks given he had to call the extremely hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park his home; his 136 ERA+ over the past three years ranks eighth among 46 pitchers with at least 350 innings pitched, ahead of Clayton Kershaw, Max Fried, Marcus Stroman, Hyun Jin Ryu and Charlie Morton. It also feels like San Francisco’s player development system could unlock another level, as it did with other former Cincinnati pitcher Anthony DeSclafani.
Giants fans may not like to let go of Ramos, a 2017 first-round pick who’s a consensus top-five prospect in the system and was among the youngest players at both Double A and Triple A in ’21. But he still has a lot of developing to do before he becomes the star player his tools indicate he one day could be, so he could be more valuable to the organization as the centerpiece of a trade. He was also drafted before president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi came to town, so the front office may not be so reluctant to include him in the right deal.
Why it makes sense for Cincinnati
In November, Reds GM Nick Krall expressed ownership’s desire to cut payroll, and the organization probably didn’t just have catcher Tucker Barnhart ($7.8 million, traded to the Tigers) and pitcher Wade Miley ($10 million, claimed on waivers by the Cubs) in mind. Cincinnati’s payroll is set to come in at around $115 million in 2022, a $15 million decrease from last year. Gray is the club’s highest-paid pitcher—a $10.2 million base salary in ’22 and a $12 million club option for ’23—which makes him a likely trade candidate. The lone remaining guaranteed year on Gray’s contract, compared to two for fellow Reds starters Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle, also makes his departure more likely. If the Reds couldn’t qualify for the playoffs with Nick Castellanos batting at a Silver Slugger level, it probably can’t without him—an opinion the Reds seem to share, as they were one of just three teams (along with the A’s and Guardians) not to sign a free agent before the lockout. Castellanos is still unsigned, but his opting out of the final two years and $32 million left on his contract indicate he’s in for a deal worth more than the Reds are willing to pay to re-sign him.
That being said, this isn’t just a payroll dump. Gray possesses real value, and the Reds are in position to land a few promising prospects for him. Ramos is the headliner; he doesn’t have any obvious holes in his game and profiles as a surefire major leaguer. His powerful right arm and improved power stroke could help him hold down right field in Great American Ball Park for years, as Cincinnati doesn’t have many promising outfielders in the organization. Santos could provide the Reds much-needed bullpen help as soon as 2022, as his tendency to favor his wipeout slider over his fastball—which is a weapon in itself in the high 90s—gives hitters a different look in the late innings. An 80-game suspension for PEDs last year prevented him from making an impact in San Francisco’s bullpen; the Giants excelled in that area, anyway, making him expendable. Murphy is a statistical darling who struck out 164 hitters against just 26 walks in 107⅓ IP last year in Single A and Advanced A, but his average stuff indicates he’ll likely be a back-end starter at best at the major league level.
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