Luka Dončić’ Is Finding His Rhythm Behind the Three-Point Line

Mar 17, 2021

The Mavericks’ guard improved his three-point shooting in February. Can he keep it up?

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The closest part of Luka Dončić’s offensive repertoire that’s even in the ballpark of being referred to as a defect is his three-point shot. He made 32.7% of them as a rookie and 31.6% during his second season. Strip garbage-time tries from the equation and Dončić finished in the 36th and 24th percentile at his position, respectively, in both categories.

Not only has he been inaccurate, but only five players have taken more total threes since he entered the league, and only a handful of players have ever averaged at least four attempts per game while shooting under 33%. In 2019, only James Harden and Kemba Walker averaged more pull-ups than Luka’s 5.3 per game; 31.4% of them went in. In 2020, he hoisted 7.2 per game—only Harden, Trae Young, and Damian Lillard ranked above him—and made 31.6%.

Given the high volume and absurd degree of difficulty, there’s been enough reason to believe he’d correct course eventually and become a reliable option from outside. Dončić, who turned 22 a few weeks ago, has shown he can still be a preternatural MVP candidate without even a league-average long ball; the Mavericks still finished last season with the most efficient offense in NBA history, and Luka had the second-highest usage rate in the league. At the same time, even in today’s long-range feeding frenzy, very few players, if any, have ever had a brighter green light with such a low conversion rate.

Then February 2021 happened. Dončić made 43.5% of his threes (40 for 92) in the month, upping his overall accuracy to a respectable 35.7% for the season. He shot 41.7% off the dribble and an unconscious 52.6% on spot-ups. Without needing to include his 5-for-10 performance against the Magic on March 1, this was the most impressive and promising protracted shooting stretch of Luka’s career; almost his entire season has been one steady trend in the right direction.

Of course, one month of hot shooting isn’t enough to declare this a watershed moment. Dončić missed eight threes in his first game after the break and is 9 for 31 since. He could easily find himself on a cold streak very soon. But February still happened. And heading into the second half of this season it’s a reminder of the different ways Dončić’s direct relationship to the three ball—in a league where offensive profundity is increasingly dictated by the number of three-point attempts every team/player is willing to hurl—can bend his already steep long-term trajectory. In the present, it may help turn the Mavs into the team every club with home court advantage will be scrambling to avoid before the playoffs.

The NBA’s stylistic zeitgeist revolves around players who take and make a bunch of threes, especially off the bounce. In only his third season, Luka is already one of the shot’s most persistent and daring practitioners. It’s unclear what his apotheosis will look like, though. The relationship between volume and efficiency here is a complicated one.

Dončić’s three-point rate is down about 7% this season compared with his first two, with more floaters and long twos than we’ve previously seen. It’s an intriguing shift given that he’s now more accurate on pull-ups than Lillard, Jayson Tatum, Kemba and Devin Booker. But quantity and precision are almost beside the point when talking about a player who is still able to leverage outside shots in a way that accentuates other parts of his attack—as opposed to relying on it as an independent resource.

Luka’s three-point attempts are their own rhythm-shifting mic drop, but also feel purposeful as a complementary weapon, specifically when leveraged to get him downhill. As a rookie, Luka averaged 7.5 points per game driving the ball. This season he’s at 13.6, shooting an unreal 58.4%.

This is the essence of “Luka Magic,” a player who habitually convinces the best defenders in the universe to chase him over a screen (especially when he goes left) instead of ducking under, fearful of a deep pull up despite much evidence suggesting there are worse shots to allow. Opponents crowd him above the arc, not quite coaxing him to inspect the paint but increasing the likelihood it will happen. And when they instead strategize to keep him on the perimeter, Dončić won’t hesitate to let it fly from long distance. He’s supremely confident anywhere on the court, and when shots like this one drop, all of the other team’s plans are instantly destroyed.

Not all of them look that easy, though, which naturally leads us to his relentlessly delightful, somewhat exasperating step-back. If Dončić’s game were a song, his drives to the cup would be the unavoidable chorus. The DNA. The backbone. The step-back three, though, is that impulsive, adventuresome verse that makes you rewind several times on a first listen, unsure if it works or even makes sense before realizing nothing else does a better job elevating the tune’s singularity. Weeks, months, years later, you’re unable to imagine music existing without it.

When deployed the right amount (though who’s to say what that means, exactly), it’s unstoppable. When exploited too often, it’s like watching someone eat a bowl of sugar for lunch; excising some of the more spontaneous, early-shot-clock attempts from Dončić’s diet wouldn’t be the worst idea.

We’ve seen a little bit of that this season, where roughly 17% of all Luka’s shots have been step-back threes, down from the 21.5% he posted last year. He’s knocking down a tight 36% of them, and drilled 42.9% in February.

Luka’s embrace of the step-back can also be attributed to Dallas’s tepid pace. Sometimes he doesn’t have enough time to scroll through a menu of options before it’s time to strike. Their transition frequency with Dončić on the floor is just 11.3% (lower than every other team), and only 19.7% after the Mavs snatch a defensive rebound (the league average is 27.8%). These are antiquated numbers in an NBA that’s getting faster and faster. But Dončić’s general omniscience in the half-court makes them feel appropriate, even when he’s forced to take a relatively difficult shot.

This season, he’s one of three players (Harden and Lillard being the others) who’ve attempted at least 100 threes after taking at least seven dribbles. Dončić has made 39.7% of them, which is up 6% from last season. On a much higher volume, it’s also nearly 10% more accurate than Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell and Jamal Murray.

Measuring Luka’s progress with analytics has its obvious worth, but in this type of conversation, different viewpoints are encouraged. At least one, in the face of all criticism, reasonably asks viewers not to shame the prodigious basketball genius for breaking out some of the prettiest footwork anyone his age has ever had. There’s something mesmerizing about a shot that can’t be defended. It’s statistic-scrambling sunshine, never more clear than on the two he drilled at the end of a recent Mavericks win over Boston.

Sometimes the step-back is more art than science, and there is a world where the threat of Luka’s is even more devastating than the shot itself. As his career unfolds, how Dončić utilizes the arc will be fascinating. Will he ever settle down and more meticulously pick his spots, maybe save the bolder efforts for when there’s four seconds on the clock and he needs to create space? Will he quietly outgrow it, pack his game inward, get in better shape, and adopt the same offensive approach as LeBron? Or, five years from now, has Dončić grabbed the baton from Harden and pushed the limits of three-point discipline into a different stratosphere? Expand or contract?

Until those questions are settled, defenses are opting to respect what happens when Dončić attacks from 30 feet as opposed to four. There may very well soon be a day when they don’t have a choice.

Don’t Sleep on the Pacers

Caris LeVert’s debut over the weekend was a general reminder that for the past two months—or ever since Harden was traded, if that makes it any easier to process—the Pacers have been playing games without a salve for the Victor Oladipo, who, as their usage leader, had been an integral part of their success. It hasn’t gone well: Since they shipped Oladipo to the Rockets, the Pacers are 11–17 and rank 22nd in net rating. They’ve started eight different starting lineups.

Multiple teams have been upended this year. The pandemic’s health and safety protocols combined with a shortened offseason and compressed schedule to make injury prevention/recovery twice as hard as it normally is. The Heat, Raptors, Celtics and Mavericks are among several teams that have struggled to find solid ground, but can still be dangerous in the playoffs. With LeVert now on the floor, mostly looking rusty but with a spare glimpse or two of his All-Star ceiling, the Pacers belong on that list.

Picture this starting five: a healthy, comfortable LeVert, Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner, Malcolm Brogdon and T.J. Warren (who is currently projected to return from his foot injury before the playoffs). Now throw in Doug McDermott, Justin Holiday, Jeremy Lamb and either Aaron Holiday or T.J. McConnell (the Pacers should consider moving one—likely McConnell, given his expiring contract—before the deadline) and that’s a formidable rotation!

There’s no promise LeVert integrates seamlessly with his new teammates, in a different role and defensive system over the next several weeks, or that Warren rekindles the fire he had in the bubble. There are half a million other things that could go wrong before the season ends. But if the Pacers make the playoffs—which they ultimately should—and are able to jell beforehand, a first-round upset shouldn’t shock anyone.