No. 1 Kansas is a 4.5-point favorite at SI Sportsbook over No. 8 North Carolina in Monday’s national championship game.
Kansas and North Carolina are forever linked by Roy Williams.
In the first year since 1987 that Williams isn't coaching either program, the Jayhawks and Tar Heels meet in the national championship game.
There is postseason history between these teams, with Kansas winning the last three matchups. The Jayhawks triumphed in the Sweet 16 in 2016, the Elite Eight in 2012 and the Final Four in 2008, (the last time the Jayhawks won a national championship).
Once again, North Carolina, led by Williams’s successor and first-year coach Hubert Davis, stands in the way of Bill Self’s team.
UNC and Kansas both got through some tough challenges to reach this point.
The Tar Heels beat their rival Duke to break through to the title game and the Jayhawks took down Villanova, one of their biggest challengers on the right side of the bracket, to return to the title game for the first time since 2012.
Matt Ehalt and I teamed up again to make sense of the final game of March Madness. UNC’s perfect tournament ATS record is on the line—will KU put an end to it?
Matt Ehalt NCAA tournament against the spread (ATS) record: 23-24–1
Kyle Wood NCAA tournament ATS record: 21-30–1
National championship betting previews: Best Bet
Check the NCAA Tournament Title Game Odds and Lines from SI Sportsbook
Brynn Anderson/AP
No. 1 Kansas (33-6) vs No. 8 North Carolina (29-9)
Time: 9:20 p.m. ET | TBS
Spread: North Carolina +4.5 (-125) | Kansas -4.5 (-105)
Moneyline: North Carolina (+160) | Kansas (-200)
Over/Under: Over 151.5 (-118) | Under 151.5 (-110)
Kansas’s Path
The Jayhawks enter Monday off perhaps the most dominant win of the tournament, thrashing No. 2 Villanova for an 81-65 win Saturday. That performance was overshadowed by the Duke-UNC game that followed, but it should not be discounted. KU hit 13 three-pointers, including six from Ochai Agbaji, to sink the Wildcats. Senior center David McCormack exploded for a season-high 25 points and Kansas simply overpowered a Villanova defense that has stymied opponents all season.
Before the Final Four, the Jayhawks rallied to blow out No. 10 Miami in the Elite Eight, got by No. 4 Providence in the Sweet 16, survived No. 9 Creighton’s upset bid in the second round and took care of No. 16 Texas Southern in their first game.
Kansas has been on upset alert several times in the tournament, but their last 60 minutes against Villanova and Miami have inspired renewed confidence in Self’s club.
North Carolina’s Path
The Tar Heels went through the gauntlet to make it to this point. A subpar regular season set them up for a No. 8 seed in the tournament, which forced them to play the No. 1 and 4 seeds in their region and draw rival No. 2 Duke in the Final Four just for a chance to make it to the championship. And here they are.
UNC’s 81-77 rubber match win against Duke on Saturday was historic. The teams traded three-pointers down the stretch and it was a dagger from Caleb Love, who finished with a game-high 28 points, that did Duke in. North Carolina has now won a handful of hard-fought games against higher-seeded teams (No. 2 Duke, No. 4 UCLA in the Sweet 16, No. 1 Baylor in the second round) and demolished the two lower-seeded opponents (No. 9 Marquette and No. 15 Saint Peter’s).
UNC now faces a No. 1 seed for the second time in the tournament and the Tar Heels are underdogs for the fourth time.
David J. Phillip/AP
Kyle Wood’s Bet: Kansas -4.5
The Jayhawks look like the best team in the country right now. And the Tar Heels could be in for a letdown after the emotional high of this past weekend.
Kansas defeated its Sweet 16 and Elite Eight opponents by a combined 42 points and held two very good offenses to 50 and 65 points, respectively. KU also has bodies inside who can work to neutralize the impact of UNC big man Armando Bacot, who is averaging 16.8 rebounds per game in the tournament. McCormack stands at 6’10” and just had his best rebounding game of the tournament and 6’8” forward Jalen Wilson logged his fourth game in a row with double-digit rebounds against Villanova.
It’s great news for North Carolina that Bacot, who injured his ankle late in the Duke game, will play. He’s a good shot blocker, limits second-chance points for opposing teams by coming down with board after board and allows his team second-chance opportunities by keeping possessions alive on the offensive glass. If he’s limited Monday night, it would be a major blow to UNC’s chances.
The Tar Heels can rely on production from their entire starting five, but not much beyond that. Their bench scored two points against Duke—a pair of free throws when Bacot briefly left the game. Bacot, Love, Brady Manek and R.J. Davis have all had their moments in this tournament. Those four are all threats to go for 20-plus points and the latter three have all gotten hot from outside at different points. Senior forward Leaky Black might have the toughest assignment against Agbaji, Kansas' star forward.
Agbaji, a 6’5” senior, is a phenomenal shooter and Kansas’ leading scorer. He’s coming off his best game of the tournament against Villanova, during which he torched the Wildcats from outside. But KU, like UNC, has gotten contributions from its entire lineup. McCormack, Agbaji and Remy Martin off the bench have all given the Jayhawks offense some life at different points during this run.
UNC is 5-0 ATS in the tournament, compared to Kansas’s 3-2 mark. The Tar Heels have thrived as an underdog (3-0), while the Jayhawks have been favored in every game.
I like KU to end North Carolina’s perfect streak and capture its first title since 2008. Depth will be important in this game and if the banged-up Bacot isn’t 100%, the Jayhawks could secure an edge inside that could decide this game and keep UNC from the second- and third-chance opportunities that have kept its run alive.
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: North Carolina +4.5
I believe Kansas will win but North Carolina covers the spread.
It’s easy to fade North Carolina in this spot coming off arguably the greatest rivalry win in any sport. To keep that momentum going for another night is going to be tough.
But there’s just something about this North Carolina team. The resiliency its shown in each game has been downright tremendous.
North Carolina could have folded after Baylor rallied from a 25-point deficit in the second round. The Tar Heels instead pulled it out in overtime. Trailing late against UCLA, North Carolina hit some dagger three-pointers to upset the Bruins.
And Saturday night against a more-talented Duke team, North Carolina made all the plays down the stretch to win the biggest game in the history of the rivalry.
This sets up a potential letdown spot, though, against Kansas.
Kansas has been hot and cold during the tournament, barely defeating Creighton and Providence and trailing at the half to Miami. In the 60 minutes since, though, Kansas has been downright dominant. The Jayhawks pulled away from the Hurricanes and took advantage of a shorthanded Villanova squad in the Final Four.
The x-factor in this game is obviously Armando Bacot and how healthy he will be. North Carolina needs him down low to control the glass and provide those second-chance points. If he’s out, that tilts the game completely to Kansas.
Ultimately, I believe North Carolina’s inspired defense will allow its offense to hit some big shots and keep this game close down the stretch. Bacot’s injury is a major concern, but you have to believe he’s going to give it his all.
Kansas win its first title since 2008 but the Tar Heels keep it close.
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