Against the spread bets for Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchup between No. 1 Arizona and No. 5 Houston in the South Region.
The late game Thursday pits two of the highest-graded teams in college hoops against one another. No. 1 Arizona is a narrow favorite to beat No. 5 Houston and its vaunted defense.
The Cougars made it to the Sweet 16 without much of a struggle, while the Wildcats had to sweat a close game with TCU that they closed out in overtime.
Matt Ehalt and I both make our picks for which of these teams will advance to the Elite Eight over the weekend.
Matt Ehalt NCAA tournament against the spread (ATS) record: 19-16-1
Kyle Wood NCAA tournament ATS record: 16-23-1
Sweet 16 betting previews: Gonzaga-Arkansas | Villanova vs. Michigan | Two Bets for Thursday
Check the Latest NCAA Tournament Odds and Lines from SI Sportsbook
Gene J. Puskar/AP
No. 5 Houston (31-5) vs. No. 1 Arizona (33-3)
Time: 9:59 p.m. ET | TBS
Spread: Houston +1.5 (-110) | Arizona -1.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Houston (+100) | Arizona (-125)
Over/Under: Under 145.5 (-118) | Over 145.5 (-110)
Houston’s Path
The Cougars scored two double-digit victories over quality teams to get their shot at knocking off the No. 1 seed in their region. In the first round, Houston got the best of No. 12 UAB in an 82-68 win in which it severely limited one of the highest-scoring offenses in college basketball. UH then turned around and sent home No. 4 Illinois, defeating the Illini, 68-53, while once again flexing its stingy defense.
Arizona’s Path
Beating No. 16 Wright State, 87-70, was a non-event for the Wildcats. And then their second-round game against No. 9 TCU was one of the most memorable games from the opening weekend. Arizona, in a truly wild finish, defeated the Horned Frogs, 85-80, in a game that required overtime to contain its craziness. Benedict Mathurin led Arizona in scoring in both games, going for a casual 18 in the round of 64 before lighting up TCU for 30 points, including a clutch three-pointer.
Kyle Wood’s Bet: Arizona -1.5
The metrics adore Houston. The Cougars, No. 10 on both offense and defense per Ken Pom, have played just two ranked opponents all year. Right behind them in third overall is Arizona, with a slightly better offense, a lesser defense and a tempo a whole lot faster than how UH prefers to play. I think the duo of Mathurin and 7’1” Christian Koloko, who posted double-doubles in both tournament games, will be too much for the Cougars. It’s difficult to handle a team like Arizona that does so many things well, some of which Houston struggles to do efficiently—like free-throw shooting.
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Arizona -1.5
Arizona is one tough team.
I’ll admit that I expected to fade the Wildcats in my brackets, but they made me a believer after dismantling UCLA in the Pac-12 title game after falling behind big.
Arizona again showed its toughness Sunday to outlast a game TCU team in overtime behind greatness from Benedict Mathurin (and help from the referees … that was a foul). Don’t overlook what that can do for a team’s confidence.
While the metrics love Houston, the concern is the level of competition it faced all year. Houston’s defense will keep it in this game. The Cougars are going to test Arizona. But let’s be honest: Arizona is not Illinois. We’re seeing now that the Big Ten teams were vastly overrated, and this Illinois team underachieved.
Houston has produced a great season, but it’s going to be hard to win this game even if the game is in its home state of Texas. I’m just not sure Houston’s defense can stymy Arizona for long enough, especially if Mathurin carries over momentum from Sunday.
Arizona has too many weapons and will find a way to knock off the AAC champions. The caliber of opponents on the schedule ultimately matters this time of year, and with a 1.5-point spread I’m almost getting Arizona to win straight-up.
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