Plus-money bets and analysis for Friday’s Marlins-Mets, Phillies-Cardinals and Tigers-White Sox games.
The dog days of summer are here, so this one’s for the ‘dogs!
I love Friday’s betting slate, and I found a lot of fun value at SI Sportsbook. These three bets feature underdogs that have a chance to pull the upset.
If you’re just starting to follow along, in my MLB bets series I try to only pick plus-money bets or bets with very little juice. The strategy is for our wins to pay more than we invested. Sometimes the “risk” is higher, but so far our bankroll is growing nicely.
We’re off to a 28-22 start to the season (56%) on SI Sportsbook and 25 of those wins paid plus-money.
You can also track along with all my bets across all sports on SharpRank.
Let’s have some fun.
Nick Wass/AP
Miami Marlins (39-42 ) at New York Mets (52-31)
- Moneyline: Marlins (+138) | Mets (-163)
- Run line: Marlins +1.5 (-154) | Mets -1.5 (+130)
- Total: 6.5 - Over (-163) | Under (+138)
The Mets have the second-best record in the National League. Am I crazy to bet against them? Maybe. But this Marlins team is frisky. They have won seven of their last ten and are in the hunt for the wild card. They have a lot to play for Friday.
Chris Bassitt (6-5, 4.05 ERA) starts for the Mets at Citi Field. Bassitt has pitch well, striking batters out at a rate of 9.54 per nine innings though he’s walking 2.61 per nine. He’s good at limiting hard contact, but the walks could get him into a little trouble.
Pablo Lopez (5-4, 2.97) took a no-hitter through six innings versus the Nationals in his last start before allowing two runs. Lopez has a sub-3.00 ERA and strikes out nearly one batter per inning, while surrendering fewer than one home run per nine.
The only trouble is that the Mets have the third-lowest strikeout rate in the league and Lopez could also get burned by free passes, as he walks 2.59 batters per nine.
The sets up to be a close one in Queens.
The Mets are averaging 4.08 runs scored per game across the past two weeks, while the Marlins are averaging 3.15. But the good news for the Marlins? Pete Alonso has only two hits and is slugging .182 in 11 at bats versus Lopez.
View the original article to see embedded media.
Players to watch
Jeff McNeil has a 1.300 OPS and is batting .500 versus Lopez.
Jon Berti leads the league with 25 stolen bases.
The Mets are 5-5 in their last ten, and I think the Marlins can squeak by if Lopez pitches well and the bullpen can hold it together. SI Sportsbook expects a pitcher’s duel with the game total at 6.5, and I’m betting the road dogs can pull this one off.
BET: Marlins moneyline (+138)
Laurence Kesterson/AP
Philadelphia Phillies (44-39) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (45-40)
- Moneyline: Phillies (-125) | Cardinals (+105)
- Run line: Phillies -1.5 (+138) | Cardinals +1.5 (-163)
- Total: 7.5 - Over (-118) | Under (+100)
You’ll never find me betting against Adam Wainwright (6-6, 3.26) at home.
Waino gets the start and has a 2.25 ERA at Busch this season. For his career it’s 2.83.
While the Cardinals’ righty doesn’t have a high strikeout rate, but he’s allowed only 0.84 home runs per nine this year. The best news, though? The red-hot Kyle Schwarber is hitting only .172 vs. Wainwright in 29 career at bats.
Zack Wheeler (7-4, 2.66) starts for the Phillies and he has been excellent again. Wheeler does strike out a lot of batters and he also does not surrender the long ball (0.51 per nine innings). This sets up to be another close one in St. Louis.
The Phillies haven’t slowed down since losing Bryce Harper—mostly due to Schwarber’s hot summer—and they scoring 5.25 runs per game across the past two weeks. The Cardinals, by contrast, have scored only 3.38.
View the original article to see embedded media.
Players to Watch
Paul Goldschmidt continues to mash, batting .342 with 19 homers. He has hit 15 of his home runs off right-handed pitching, but he hasn’t hit one yet in July. He’s due.
Schwarber is batting .304 with four homers through the first week of July.
If the Cards can work their at bats and get to the Philly bullpen, they should be able to pull this one off. They slept in their own beds last night and are coming off a win.
BET: Cardinals moneyline (+105)
Paul Sancya/AP
Detroit Tigers (35-47) vs. Chicago White Sox (39-42)
- Moneyline: Tigers (+145) | White Sox (-175)
- Run line: Tigers +1.5 (-138) | White Sox -1.5 (+115)
- Total: 7.5 - Over (+100) | Under (+115)
The Tigers squeaked out a win Thursday against the White Sox. Can they do it again?
Lefty Tarik Skubal (5-7, 4.06) has fallen on hard times of late, posting a 5.85 ERA in June and allowing five runs in 4 2/3 innings versus the lowly Royals in his last start.
So, why am I willing to bet on the Tigers?
Because Lucas Giolito (5-4, 4.90) can be just as bad. Giolito has pitched well in his last two starts but on the whole, though he has a good K rate, he is allowing a ton of hard contact and hitters are barreling the ball. Giolito has walked 3.46 batters and allowed 1.79 home runs per nine innings this year.
Skubal, meanwhile, is striking out batters at a rate of more than one per inning and he has allowed only 0.81 home runs per nine innings.
More importantly, though, the Tigers’ offense has actually been on a roll lately.
Detroit has scored an average of 4.85 runs per game, compared to Chicago’s 4.31 runs per game across the past two weeks. The White Sox do have the second-highest batting average versus southpaws this year at .285 with a .794 OPS.
You probably guessed I am also eyeing the over here.
Players to Watch
Tim Anderson is slugging 1.154 versus Skubal in 13 career at bats.
Eric Haase has taken Giolito deep twice in only 11 career at bats.
Detroit has the better bullpen with an ERA of 2.13 across the past two weeks (fourth-best) and 2.98 (third-best) on the season. If the Tigers can get to Giolito early, they can pull off the upset.
BET: Tigers moneyline (+145)
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