Bets and analysis for Tuesday’s Mavericks-Nuggets game in Denver. The Nuggets are small home favorites.
This season’s third installment of Mavericks-Nuggets tips off Tuesday night in Denver.
The Western Conference foes split the first two meetings, both of which were played in Dallas a few weeks ago. Now the Nuggets host Luka Dončić and Co. at Ball Arena, where they are 6-2 this year, while the Mavs are just 2-8 in away games.
This matchup pits the back-to-back MVP in Nikola Jokić against Dončić, who is one of the early favorites to win the award. While Jokić was out for both November games against Dallas, Dončić put up a 33-point triple-double against Denver in a 127-99 win. He struggled when these teams played again a few nights later and finished with just 22 points in a 98-97 defeat.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets Odds
Time: 10 p.m. ET (TNT)
Spread: Mavericks +5.5 (-110) | Nuggets -5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Mavericks (+175) | Nuggets (-213)
Total: 222.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Mavericks Betting Profile
Straight-Up Record: 12–11
Against The Spread Record: 7–15–1
Over/Under Record: 14–9
Points Per Game (Rank): 111.5 (17)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 108.4 (4)
Nuggets Betting Profile
Straight-Up Record: 14–9
Against The Spread Record: 11–12
Over/Under Record: 11–12
Points Per Game (Rank): 114.7 (12)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 113.6 (16)
Spread Bet: Nuggets -5.5 (-110)
The Mavericks are coming off a huge win Monday night against the Suns, but that means they are on no days rest on the road against a team with a built-in home court advantage. Dallas is actually 3-1 this season on no rest, but these are extenuating circumstances.
The Nuggets return home after two consecutive losses and though the Mavericks are no pushover, this is a perfect opportunity for them to get back in the win column after having Monday off. Denver is down Michael Porter Jr. (heel) but gets an automatic boost from the earlier meetings with Jokić back in the lineup.
There is no worse team to bet on than the Mavericks this year - period. The 5.5-point line is a bit generous, but the size advantage Denver holds down low and the lack of reliable secondary scorers beyond Dončić for Dallas to rely on makes me lean the Nuggets’ way.
Over/Under Bet: Over 222.5 (-110)
The first two games went under with a huge caveat: The back-to-back MVP missed both of them. His expert playmaking and 20-plus points were missing from the equation. Put him back on the court against another MVP contender in Doncic and there’s bound to be fireworks.
Weirdly enough, Dallas, with a top-10 defense and bottom-10 offense has seen more of its games go over than not. And Denver games do so just less than 50% of the time. Both teams just need to hit their scoring average to go over this modest total and both defenses have allowed some big spots lately that inspire quite a bit of confidence in that happening.
Prop Bet: Nikola Jokić Over 11.5 Rebounds (+100)
Jokić missed both early-season meetings with the Mavericks, but he grabbed 16 rebounds in all three games he played against them last year. His season average is 10.1 boards per game and he’s coming off a 16-rebound outing against the Knicks.
Dallas is the worst rebounding team in the league and Jokić has been active on the glass lately. He should be able to smash this total as the lone big man either lineup relies on, and it’s extra enticing at plus odds.
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