Bets and analysis for Friday’s Game 2 of the ALDS between the Yankees and Guardians and Game 3 of the NLDS between the Padres and Dodgers.
The Yankees have a 1-0 ALDS lead versus the Guardians and look to keep the momentum rolling Friday after Thursday’s postponement in the Bronx.
The Padres upset the Dodgers on Wednesday night to even the NLDS at 1-1, and will welcome their NL West rivals to Petco Park on Friday.
Meanwhile, in the other NLDS matchup, the Braves-Phillies series shifts to Philadelphia with the teams tied at one game apiece.
If you want to get in on the action, here are a few wagers to target. The postseason already has had plenty of surprises, so buckle up. For Friday’s bets we are going to lean more toward instinct than stats. Let’s see if it pays off!
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BET: Yankees -1.5 (+165)
I like this Guardians lineup. I really do. But. they just aren’t a match for this Yankees team that is top five in OPS, Runs scored, home runs, slugging and ISO, while also boasting the third-lowest ERA (3.30). Shane Bieber gets the start for the Guardians (13-8, 2.93 ERA) and he has been excellent this year but has struggled against Yankees hitters. Though Bieber has a high strikeout rate, he gives up a lot of hard contact (bottom 14% of the league), and that’s something that players like Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo can capitalize on at home.
Nestor Cortes (12-4, 2.44) starts for the Yankees and he does not allow much hard contact, ranking in the top 25% of the league. The Guardians are bottom-10 in the league in slugging, with the second fewest home runs, and they are bottom half of the MLB in runs scored. The safe play is Yankees moneyline but let’s get bold.
BET: Myles Straw Under 0.5 hits (+110)
Not only did Myles Straw hit just .221 this season at the bottom of the Guardians’ lineup, but he has zero hits in eight at bats versus Cortes. The Yankees’ bullpen should keep him in check too, and I love that this pays plus-money.
BET: Dodgers Moneyline (-125)
The Dodgers are starting Tony Gonsolin (16-1, 2.14 ERA), and they are hoping to get five innings out of him and then go to their bullpen. There is some uncertainty around Gonsolin as he missed September with a forearm injury, but Gonsolin posted a 0.71 ERA and held the San Diego hitters to a .156 batting average across 12 innings this season. The Dodgers’ bullpen is stacked, and we could even see Dustin May, so I like Los Angeles’s chances to keep the Padres in check. Blake Snell (8-10, 3.38) has been good this year versus the Dodgers, but he’s known to blow up, and I don’t really trust him. His average exit velocity allowed is in the bottom 12% of the league, so I am giving the Dodgers the edge.
BET: Mookie Betts Stolen Base (+450)
Snell allowed the sixth-most stolen bases this season (38), allowing one extra bag every 5.5 innings pitched. Mookie’s xBA versus Snell is .292, according to Statcast, and he also has a 16.7% walk rate versus Snell. Batting leadoff, Mookie should have a few opportunities to get on base. If it’s anything like Wednesday’s game, we can expect bunts, stolen base attempts and spectacular defense. At +450 odds this is a fun dart to throw. Trea Turner is also available at +350 odds.
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