SI Gambling analyst Roy Larking previews Monday's MLB betting action with his two top picks on his baseball betting card.
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Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers
Meeting for the first time this season, Miami visits Milwaukee to open a three-game series tonight. The first pitch for the Marlins vs. Brewers matchup is 7:40 p.m. ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wis. These teams didn’t play last year during the COVID-19 shortened season. Milwaukee posted a 5–2 series win during the 2019 season against Miami. After the Marlins won twice in Milwaukee, 16–0 and 8–3, the Brewers closed the series with five wins by a 27–14 margin. Milwaukee has been the favorite in all nine games at home this season and they are 4–5 in those contests.
Miami (9–12) opened the season with a 1–6 record before rebounding with six wins over their next seven games. Slumping again, the Marlins are on a 2–5 losing streak and three of the losses were by two or more runs. Miami heads to Milwaukee following a 3–1 series loss against the Giants in San Francisco. The Giants won the first two games, 3–0 and 5–3, and the Marlins posted a 5–2 win in the third game. San Francisco closed the series with a 4–3 victory yesterday. Miami is 5–5 on the road but has lost four of the last five games as visitors. The Marlins have scored 85 runs and allowed 84 runs.
Milwaukee (13–8) is first overall in the NL Central standings and they have a two-game lead on the St. Louis Cardinals. The Brewers return home following a 3–0 sweep of the Padres in San Diego and 2–1 series win over the Cubs in Chicago. Pitching led the way in San Diego as the Brewers outscored the Padres by a 13–3 margin. After a 15–2 blowout loss in Chicago, Milwaukee closed the series against the Cubs with 4–3 and 6–0 victories. The Brewers are on a 12–5 recent run and are aiming for their third three-game winning streak this season. Milwaukee has scored 91 runs and allowed 73 runs
RHP Corbin Burnes (2–1, 0.37 ERA) is making his fifth start for Milwaukee. After allowing a home run, during a 2–0 loss to Minnesota on April 3, Burnes has not allowed a run over his last three starts. He has racked up 40 strikeouts, and hasn’t issued a walk, over 24.1 innings this season.
LHP Trevor Rogers (2–1, 1.64 ERA) makes his fifth start for Miami. He allowed four earned runs, on 12 hits over 22.0 innings, during his first four starts. Rodgers held Baltimore to four hits, over seven scoreless innings, during a 3–0 win in his last start. Lay the run line and back the Brewers at home.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+133) run line
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
American League West rivals begin a three-game series when Texas hosts Los Angeles tonight. Game time for the Rangers vs. Angeles contest is 8:05 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. This is the fourth of 19 meetings this season. These teams played a three-game set in Los Angeles last week and Texas won the series 2–1. The Rangers won the first game 6–4 before the Angels rebounded with a 6–2 win in the second game. Texas scored six runs, over the final two innings, and posted a 7–4 win in the series finale. The Angels are road favorites in this contest.
Los Angeles (10–10) opened the season with a 7–3 record but the Angels have lost seven of their last 10 games. Five of the losses were by at least two runs and Los Angeles was outscored by a 58–39 margin during the losing streak. The Angels visit the Rangers following a 3–1 series loss in Houston. The Astros, who had lost nine of their previous ten games, outscored the Angels by a 31–12 margin during the four-game series. Los Angeles has a .260 team batting average, which is third-best overall, but pitching is a problem as their 5.22 combined ERA ranks last in the league.
Texas (9–13) struggled during a 3–7 start to the season but has rebounded slightly with a 6–6 record over their last 12 games. The Rangers outscored their opponents 33–16 during the six wins but were outscored 36–17 during the six losses. Texas returns home after the 2–1 series win in Los Angeles and 3–0 sweep by the White Sox in Chicago. Following 9–7 and 2-1 wins by Chicago, the White Sox defeated the Rangers 8–4 in the series finale yesterday. Texas is last overall in the AL West and trail first-place Oakland by five games. The Rangers have scored 86 runs but have allowed 104 runs.
Two-way star RHP Shohei Ohtani (0–0, 1.04 ERA) is making his third start for Los Angeles. RHP Jordan Lyles (1–1, 4.64 ERA) is making his fifth start for Texas. This is a repeat of the pitching matchup from the Angels 6–2 win on April 20. Ohtani racked up seven strikeouts, and held Texas to one hit over four innings, but took a no-decision. Lyles took the loss as he allowed three runs and five hits over six innings. Los Angeles has an edge in the pitching matchup and the Angels are the slightly higher-scoring team. Bet the moneyline and back the Angels as favorites on the road.
Pick: Los Angeles Angels (-172) moneyline
2021 MLB Regular Season Betting Record: 11–17 (-7.90 Units)
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