SI Gambling analyst Roy Larking previews Wednesday's MLB betting action and shares the two top picks on his baseball betting card
Have you signed up to become an SI PRO subscriber this baseball season?
Your membership gives you access to betting information and plays in real time through our Discord chat, so you never miss an opportunity to get in on the action before the lines move. And if you play daily fantasy, our daily breakdowns are only available for SI PRO members.
Join the club today and start beating the books and the competition with us!
San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh hosts San Diego in the third match of a four-game series tonight. Game time for the Pirates vs. Padres matchup is 6:35 p.m. ET at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pa. San Diego won the first game 6–2, and Pittsburgh rebounded with an 8–4 win last night. Before this series, these teams last played each other during the 2019 MLB season. The Pirates won six straight games, including all three contests in Pittsburgh, and posted a 6–1 season series win. Eight or more runs were scored in five of the seven games. San Diego has been a road favorite during the first three games of this series.
San Diego (8–4) opened the season with four games at home against Arizona. The Padres won the first three contests by a 19–9 margin. The Diamondbacks avoided a sweep with a 3–1 win in the series finale. That was followed by three low-scoring games at home against San Francisco. The Giants won the first game 3–2, and the Padres won the second contest 3–1. San Francisco closed the series with a 3–2 (F/10) victory. San Diego began their road schedule with a 3–0 sweep of the Rangers in Texas. Including two shutouts (2–0 and 3–0), the Padres outscored the Rangers 12–4 over three games.
Pittsburgh (4–7) rebounded from a 1–6 start as they have won three of the last four games. The Pirates opened the season with three road games in Chicago. Pittsburgh won 5–3 on Opening Day, but the Cubs won the series with 5–1 and 4–3 wins during the final two games. That was followed by three losses on the road in Cincinnati. The Pirates pitchers and hitters struggled against the Reds, who outscored Pittsburgh by a 30–8 margin during the sweep. After losing 4–2 to the Cubs during their home opener, Pittsburgh bounced back with 8–2 and 7–1 victories to earn their first series win.
RHP Joe Musgrove (2–0, ERA 0.00) makes his third start for San Diego. After three seasons in Pittsburgh, Musgrove joined the Padres during the offseason. He allowed three hits, over six scoreless innings, and won his first start against Arizona. He followed that with the first no-hitter in San Diego team history during the Padres 3–0 win in Texas. LHP Tyler Anderson (0–2, 5.23 ERA) makes his third start for Pittsburgh. He allowed six runs on 15 hits over 10.1 innings during two losses against Chicago. The run total reached eight in the first two games. Bet on that trend continuing.
Pick: Game Total OVER 8 (-117) runs at DraftKings
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
National League East leaders clash when Philadelphia and New York play the third of a four-game series. The Phillies vs. Mets contest's first pitch is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field in New York. These teams met 10 times last year, and Philadelphia won the season series by a 6–4 margin. Eight or more runs were scored in eight contests. During four games in New York, the Mets won 14–1 and 5–1 while the Phillies posted 5–3 and 9–8 victories. This is the sixth of 19 scheduled meetings this season. New York has won two straight and three of the first five contests in this series.
Philadelphia (6–5) opened their season with a three-game sweep at home against Atlanta. All three contests were low scoring as the Phillies posted a 3–2 (F/10) win on Opening Day. Philadelphia closed out the series with 4–0 and 2–1 victories. That was followed by three games against the Mets. Philadelphia won the first game 5–3, and New York won the second game 8–4. The Phillies won the series with an 8–2 victory in the final game. The Phillies opened their road schedule with two losses against Atlanta (8–1 and 5–4) but avoided a sweep with a controversial 7-6 win in the third game.
New York (4–3) didn’t play their first game until April 5 as their season-opening series against Washington was postponed due to COVID-19 issues. Following their 2–1 series loss, on the road against Philadelphia, New York hosted Miami in their first series at home. The Mets scored twice in the bottom of the ninth and posted a 3–2 win in the first game. The Marlins bounced back with a 3–0 win in the second match. The third contest was canceled due to rain. After the first game of this series was rained out on Monday, New York defeated Philadelphia 4–3 and 4–0 during a doubleheader yesterday.
After posting a 44–38 record, over five seasons with the Mets, RHP Zack Wheeler joined Philadelphia as free agent prior to the 2020 season. Following a 4–0 win and an 8–1 loss, during two games against Atlanta, Wheeler (1–1, 3.68 ERA) is making is third start for the Phillies. LHP David Anderson (0–1, 13.50 ERA) is making his second start for New York. He allowed six runs, on seven hits over four innings, during the Mets 8–2 loss to the Phillies on April 7. With both pitchers focused on a bounce back performance, expect a close contest here. Take the runs and back the Mets to cover at home.
Pick: New York Mets +1.5 (-162) run line
2021 MLB Regular Season Betting Record: 5–11 (-7.3 Units)
MORE FROM SPORTS ILLUSTRATED