Target the ideal DFS pitchers based on value and matchup for Friday's evening slate.
In the graph below, I listed all 10 projected starters for the evening slate in the daily games on April 8th. I included their salary from the top two daily sites, each pitcher's last start date, and the number of innings pitched. If I could find any pitch count data, I added that information. Also, I provided each pitcher's expected strikeout rate (based on my full-season projections) and the game odds at SI Sportsbook.
Having success in daily fantasy baseball starts with the starting pitching inventory. The goal is to find undervalued arms, potential difference-maker aces, and pitchers to stack lineups against.
The start of the 2022 baseball season brings a new challenge for daily gamers due to a shortened spring training. As a result, most pitchers will struggle to pitch five innings in their first start, leading to fewer impact scores by ace pitchers and a slimmer chance of earning a win.
Max Scherzer vs. Josiah Gray
Scherzer appeared on track to offer a deep inning start in his first appearance after tossing six innings of relief (two runs, three hits, and seven strikes) on March 27th. Unfortunately, a hamstring issue led to him not pitching for the past 11 days. He has a 1-0 record over three games vs. his former team with a 5.27 ERA and 15 strikeouts over 13.2 innings. I expect him to pitch at least five innings while rostered at a lower percentage. Based on his high salary, I would look to beat him on this slate. Scherzer has the highest upside in strikeouts.
Gray will be an attractive pitcher to stack against this week based on his struggles in spring training (10 runs, 14 baserunners, and five home runs over 9.2 innings with 13 strikeouts). In his limited time in the majors, Gray has 5.48 ERA, 1.358 WHIP, and 76 strikeouts over 70.2 innings. Despite his crooked stats, he has a winning minor league resume (14-5 with 2.41 ERA and 228 strikeouts over 198 innings. If Gray stays out of trouble, he should pitch six innings. I view him as an against-the-grain player with a low rostership.
The trade to the Padres should be an overall win for Manaea in victories. Last season his strikeout rate (9.7) was a career-best while maintaining a favorable walk rate (2.1). However, his down days were tied to surrendering too many long balls (1.3 per nine). Over four appearances in spring training, he gave up eight runs, 18 baserunners, and no home runs over 15.1 innings. Manaea only went 3.2 innings in his last start, but he looked sharp on March 29th against the Dodgers (one run, two hits, and seven strikeouts over 5.2 innings). I like Manaea the best at the top end of the pitching pool.
Kelly started to move up draft boards in early April after two stellar showings in spring training (one run, one hit, no walks, and 13 strikeouts over seven innings). Despite his success, Kelly has a low strikeout rate (7.7) in his brief major league career with a 4.27 ERA and some risk against home runs (1.3 per nine). His lower salary and success point to him being a chalk cheat arm while being on a path to pitch five innings. The survey says, "yes," but this game isn't that easy.
Jose Berrios vs. Jon Gray
Over three spring starts, Berrios allowed 10 runs, 20 baserunners, and six strikeouts over eight innings. However, he did show growth in his outing on April 2nd (two runs over five innings with three strikeouts). Berrios pitches for a high-scoring team with the foundation skill set to produce difference-maker games. He has a 5.47 ERA, 1.291 WHIP, and 36 strikeouts over 26.1 innings against the Rangers. On the positive side, Berrios has been dominant pitching at Rogers Centre (5-2 with a 2.44 ERA, three walks, and 57 strikeouts over 55.1 innings). I’m tossing out his spring stats while relying more on his home success. Berrios is very much alive for me in the daily space.
The escape from Colorado should be a win for Gray. Surprisingly, he has a worse ERA on the road (4.65) than in his career at home (4.54). Over two spring starts, Gray gave up two runs and eight baserunners over six innings with no walks and 10 strikeouts. He is 2-0 against the Blue Jays with a 2.63 ERA and 15 strikeouts over 13.2 innings. This certainly is a more potent Toronto starting lineup, giving Gray disaster downside. He is a possible one-off at the backend for Merrill Kelly.
Charlie Morton vs. Reiver Sanmartin
The Braves are the top favorite (-188) on the board while coming off a game one loss to the Reds. In his only start this spring, Morton tossed 4.2 no-hit shutout innings with five strikeouts on March 27th. Atlanta had him pitch in a minor league game on April 2nd, pointing to Morton being ready to throw close to 90 pitches. He has a 6-8 record against Cincinnati with a 4.41 ERA and 58 strikeouts over 104 innings. Most of his failures came earlier in his career for the Pirates when his arm hadn’t reached an elite level. Morton should win this game while being a higher percentage own.
Sanmartin made two brief appearances (one run and one hit over four innings with no walks and two strikeouts) in spring training. Unfortunately, I can’t see him pitching through the fifth inning, so he is on my avoid list. Over six years in the minors, Sanmartin posted a 3.22 ERA and 403 strikeouts over 427.2 innings.
Reid Detmers vs. Jake Odorizzi
When doing my pre 2022 draft prep, Detmers has the feel of a high upside breakout arm. He supported my thoughts with success over two starts in spring training (two runs over 5.2 innings with no walks and 11 strikeouts). However, last year Detmer struggled in his five appearances with the Angels (7.40 ERA, five home runs, and 19 strikeouts over 20.2 innings). His arm flashed electric upside in his first year in the minors at AA and AAA (3.19 ERA and 108 strikeouts over 62.0 innings). Detmers has the strikeout ability to pay off at his salary level, but his ceiling may be 75 pitches or about five innings.
I can't expect Odorizzi to pitch more than four innings based on his only spring training start on March 22nd (no runs over two innings with one strikeout). Christian Javier may be worth a cheat starter as he may piggyback Odorizzi while offering a high strikeout ability. Javier tossed two shutout innings with three strikeouts in his only appearance. Unfortunately, his salary ($7,300/$7,600) is too high.
My worst three bullpens appear to be the Nationals, Diamondbacks, and Rangers. I would look for one of these three matchups to offer the highest-scoring upside after the fifth inning.
Chalk Stacks: Mets, Braves, and Blue Jays
Sneaky Stacks: Padres and Astros
Top value hitters
C – Jorge Alfaro
1B – Dominic Smith
2B – Robinson Cano
3B – Mike Moustakas
SS – Jeremy Pena
OF – Jeff McNeil
OF – Cavan Biggio
OF – Brad Miller
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