It's hard to go against Adam Wainwright at home.
Let’s kick off the weekend with our Friday MLB bets!
We are off to a 12-3 start to the season–and 11 of those wins paid plus-money.
You can also follow my picks on SharpRank throughout the season. Accountability is key, and SharpRank keeps a record of all picks alongside our current rankings among other betting professionals.
Let’s keep it rolling!
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox
- Moneyline: Angels(+110) | White Sox (-133)
- Spread: Angels +1.5 (-200) | White Sox -1.5 (+165)
- Total: 6.5 -Over (-133 | Under (+110)
Jim Cowsert/USA TODAY Sports
Players to watch:
Mike Trout is back to being Mike Trout. He’s slugging .857 and his expected batting average, max exit velocity and sprint speed are all in the top 5% of the league. He’s had a hit in 10 of his last 11 games, and he hit three home runs in the last week.
Taylor Ward is hitting .381 with 13 runs scored, four home runs, 11 runs batted in and a stolen base to start the season, and he’s coming off a series in which he dominated the Guardians. He’s still a bargain in DFS.
Andrew Vaughn is finally getting the playing time he deserves. He has a .976 OPS with four home runs and a .300 batting average in 50 at bats. Vaughn is an incredible bargain in DFS.
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The Los Angeles Angels (13-7) face off against the White Sox (7-11), and the White Sox are favorites? Give me the underdog, please.
The Angels have scored the most runs in baseball (99), have hit the second- most home runs (25), and lead the league in slugging (.428). The White Sox are without Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jiminez and are averaging 3.28 runs per game. They are 1-9 across their last 10.
Now, if the White Sox are going to get back on track, tonight seems like a good opportunity behind Lucas Giolito, who struck out nine on Sunday in his return from the IL. However, he’s got his work cut out for him vs. this Angels team. The Chicago bullpen will also need to be sharp as Giolito could be on a short leash as he continues to get back in the groove.
The Angels will start Noah Syndergaard tonight. Syndergaard has had a strong start to the season, pitching to a 2.12 ERA and a .82 WHIP.
The game total is only 6.5, and it makes sense. Both pitchers could be strong, and it’s a matter of who can get to the other team’s bullpen. Either bullpen could blow up, but the way the White Sox are hitting, I am putting my money on the Angels.
The Pick: Angels ML +110
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks (+165) | Cardinals (-200)
- Spread: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-138) | Cardinals -1.5 (+115)
- Total: 7.5 Under (-125) | Over (+105)
Jeff Curry/USA TODAY Sports
Players to watch:
Adam Wainwright is typically dominant at home, and he’s striking men out at the highest rate of his career. Meanwhile the Diamondbacks are striking out at a 25.1% clip and batting .178.
Paul Goldschmidt has an expected slugging of .845 across 71 career at-bats vs. Madison Bumgarner. He’s batting .338 with three home runs lifetime vs. the lefty.
Christian Walker has four hits in nine at-bats vs. Wainwright. He’s not batting his average this year, but he’s hitting the ball hard with an exit velo in the top 8% of the league.
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Death, taxes, and Adam Wainwright at home. Waino has yet to surrender a run at Busch Stadium this season, and historically the veteran ace has been lights out at home. The Cards are heavily favored to win this one at -200, but I am going to bet they can win by at least two at home and hope to turn this into a plus-money payout. The Cardinals are in the top 10 teams in the league in runs scored per game while the D-backs are the worst in the league, averaging a paltry three runs per game.
The Diamondbacks will start veteran lefty Madison Bumgarmer, who, on the surface, has been excellent to start the season, pitching to a 1.00 ERA. However, the underlying metrics say he is more human. He’s only striking out 6.5 batters per nine while walking five per nine. That’s a recipe for a blow up. Nolan Arenado has three homers in 15 at-bats vs. southpaws this season, and Albert Pujols has two homers in 13 at bats.
The Diamondbacks bullpen is particularly suspect with an ERA of 4.05 and the lowest strikeout rate in the league. The Cardinals bullpen, by contrast, has an ERA of 2.74–the third-lowest in the league.
The Pick: Cardinals -1.5 (+115)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Oakland Athletics
- Moneyline: A’s (-154) | Guardians (+130)
- Spread: A’s -1.5 (+145) | Guardians +1.5 (-175)
- Total: 6.5-Over (-110 | Under (-110)
Players to watch:
Frankie Montas has been excellent to start the season. He’s not surrendering the long ball and he’s striking men out at a rate of more than nine per nine.
Jose Ramirez continues to mash, with six homers and a .347 batting average. Ramirez is only striking out 9.9% of the time (top 3% of the league).
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Six-and-a-half runs is a really small run total. It’s as simple as that.
Sure, both bullpens are good, and Frankie Montas has been excellent, but 6.5 is a really small number to trust Aaron Civale with. Civale has an ERA of 9.58 so far this season. He surrendered six runs in just three innings to the Yankees on Monday, so I can’t expect him to be lights out, even vs. the A’s.
The Guardians are averaging 4.32 runs scored per game, while the A’s are averaging 3.79. SImple math brings that total to over eight. Both pitchers and both bullpens would need to have their A-games (no pun intended) for this under to hit.
I’m taking the over.
The Pick: Over 6.5 (-110)
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