The 37th MLB Home Run Derby could feature Pete Alonso becoming the first back-to-back-to-back winner.
The MLB Home Run Derby takes place Monday night in Los Angeles! Want to get in on the action? Here are the current odds:
Pete Alonso +215
Kyle Schwarber +320
Ronald Acuña, Jr. +600
Juan Soto +600
Corey Seager +850
Julio Rodriguez +1000
Jose Ramirez +1500
Albert Pujols +1600
Returning champ Pete Alonso is the rightful favorite as he looks for a three-Pete (see what I did there?). Alonso has dominated this event for the past two years and is only the third player to win back-to-back HR Derbies. Alonso has the highest max exit velocity of the players competing (116.5), and he will meet up with Ronald Acuña in the first round. It's not the easiest first-round matchup, so I am fading the favorite (possibly foolishly).
Kyle Schwarber (+320) has the next-best odds, and it makes a lot of sense why. Not only does Schwarber lead the field in average exit velocity (93), barrel rate (21.7%) and average and max home run distance (93 and 468, respectively), his first-round matchup is with Albert Pujols. He could take it easy in the first round and still win it all. Oh, and let's not forget, Schwarber is hot right now, with 17 of his 28 home runs coming in the last six weeks.
Ronald Acuña (+600) is one of the best hitters in the field, but he will have trouble getting past Alonso. For that reason, I am fading one of my favorite players.
Juan Soto (+600) hit 46 homers last year before being eliminated by Alonso, and one of those homers was 520 feet- the longest recorded in the Statcast era. Soto got his groove back after the Derby last year, hitting 18 homers and batting .348 after the break. He joked the Derby helped him get his swing back, and Nationals fans and fantasy managers are praying for a repeat. There is value on Soto at +600 as I think he can easily get by Jose Ramirez.
Corey Seager (+850) is also a good value. Seager has been hot of late, batting .347 with six homers coming in the past two weeks. He has the most 95+ mph hour hits this year of anyone in the field. He can probably eliminate Julio Rodrguez (+1000). But don't count Julio Rodrguez out! Believe it or not, Rodriguez has the second-highest average exit velocity (92) of those in the field.
Jose Ramirez (+1500), though one of the best players in baseball, is probably not the best pick to win the Derby. As far as power goes, J-Ram's average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are bottom 38% of the league. I don't think he gets past Soto, but at +1500, you could take a flier.
Albert Pujols (+1600) is… Albert Pujols. Sorry, Albert, but you would have been my pick in 2009. You're still one of the greatest of all time.
There is an argument for any one of these players to win it all. I like Soto and Seager for better payouts, but my brain says to go with Schwarber. Pete Alonso at +210 is also a decent bet.
BET: Kyle Schwarber +320
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