Best bets for three games from Thursday’s MLB Opening Day schedule, including an upset in the Padres-Diamondbacks matchup.
Opening Day is here, and it’s time to get in on the action!
The season kicks off Thursday at 2:20 p.m. ET when the Brewers head to Wrigley Field to face the Cubs. Seven games will be played, while the Yankees-Red Sox and Mariners-Twins matchups have already been postponed to Friday due to weather. The day concludes with the Padres traveling to face the Diamondbacks.
So grab some Cracker Jacks and sit back for a full day of America’s pastime.
Now, let’s start off the season with a few picks at SI Sportsbook.
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Sue Ogrocki/AP
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Time: 4:15 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Pirates (+175) | Cardinals (-213)
Run line: Pirates +1.5 (-118) | Cardinals -1.5 (+100)
Total: Under 8 (-110) | Over 8(-110)
Projected starters: PIT RHP JT Brubaker vs. STL RHP Adam Wainwright
I usually hate betting the run line, but there is no value in taking the Cards on the moneyline. The Red Birds are my pick to win the division, and I think they can easily handle the Pirates—who are projected to win 69 games—by a two-run margin.
Adam Wainwright gets the Opening Day honors versus JT Brubaker. Brubaker has allowed a .349 batting average with an expected slugging of .567 to the Cardinals spanning 90 plate appearances. Wainwright, meanwhile, has allowed a batting average of .112 to this current Pirates lineup with a 29% K rate. Waino wasn’t his sharpest in spring training, but he shouldn’t have any trouble handling Pittsburgh at home.
Players to watch:
• Nolan Arenado is slugging a whopping 1.091 with a 1.591 OPS in twelve at-bats (AB) versus JT Brubaker.
• Wainwright has a career 2.85 home ERA.
Bet: Cardinals -1.5 (+100)
Sue Ogrocki/AP
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels
Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Astros (+110) | Angels (-133)
Run line: Astros +1.5 (-188) | Angels -1.5 (+155)
Total: Under 8.5 (-110) | Over 8.5 (-110)
Projected starters: LAA RHP Shohei Ohtani vs. HOU LHP Framber Valdez
The Angels will have reigning MVP Shohei Ohtani on the mound at home, so they are given the home-field bump. The Astros come to town with Framber Valdez and the lineup that scored the most runs (863) and struckout at the lowest rate (19.4%) in baseball in 2021. A lineup with a healthy Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Anthony Rendon will be hard to beat—and very hard to strike out—but it’s hard to pass up the reigning AL champs and the current division favorites at plus-money.
Players to watch:
• Alex Bregman has a .429 batting average (BA) and .571 slugging percentage (SLG) versus Ohtani in seven ABs.
• Jose Altuve is batting .333 in 12 ABs versus Ohtani.
• David Fletcher is batting .292 versus Valdez in 24 career ABs.
Bet: Astros (+110)
Matt York/AP
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Diamondbacks (+138) | Padres (-163)
Run line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-118) | Padres -1.5 (+100)
Total: Under 8.5 (+105) | Over 8.5 (-125)
Projected starters: ARZ LHP Madison Bumgarner vs. SDP RHP Yu Darvish
Call me crazy, but I am calling for an upset. Madison Bumgarner will be pitching at home, and he held the Padres to two earned runs in his only home start against them last season. The southpaw has yielded only four earned runs in his last 14.2 innings pitched vs. the Padres—and that was vs. a lineup that included Fernando Tatis Jr.
Yu Darvish starts for the friars. Darvish had a 6.65 ERA in 23 innings pitched versus the Diamondbacks in 2021. He’s had a strong Spring, and I want to get behind the Padres, but they don’t look like they have the same teeth without Tatis in the lineup.
Players to watch:
• Luke Voit makes his Padres debut. He has batted .284 with a .527 SLG away from Yankee Stadium.
Bets: Diamondbacks (+138); Under 8.5 (+105)
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