It’s another AFC West battle on Monday night, and the Chargers are favored by 4.5 points.
The Los Angeles Chargers (3-2) host the Denver Broncos (2-3) at SoFi Stadium on Monday Night Football. The Chargers are the favorites heading into this AFC West division showdown. Here is where the line stands at SI Sportsbook:
- Moneyline: Broncos (+188) | Chargers (-225)
- Spread: Broncos +4.5 (-110) | Chargers -4.5 (-110)
- Total: 45.5 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Offensively, the Chargers have a major advantage in this matchup. Los Angeles is averaging 24.4 points (ninth best) per game while the Broncos are averaging only 15 (second-worst).
Justin Herbert is averaging 291.2 passing yards per game, second only to Josh Allen, and while the Chargers run game is bottom-10 in the league in rushing yards, they remain a threat with the versatile pass-catching Austin Ekeler leading the backfield. Keenan Allen likely remains out with a hamstring issue, but Mike Williams, Josh Palmer and Gerald Everett have had no trouble keeping this Chargers offense in business.
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The Broncos, conversely, have looked abysmal offensively. Russell Wilson is off to a slow start, despite having talented weapons in Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, and this week he enters Monday’s contest with a questionable tag due to a shoulder injury. Wilson sustained the injury two weeks ago vs. the Raiders in what was his best game of the season, though Denver ultimately lost the contest. The Denver offense also suffered a huge blow losing running back Javonte Williams for the season in that same Raiders game. Veteran Melvin Gordon will lead the backfield for Denver with Mike Boone rounding out the committee on Monday night.
The Broncos are passing for 231 yards per game and rushing for 112, but they have been unable to maximize their opportunities. Denver is converting only 23.9% of first down (tied for league worst) and 30.6% of third down (third-worst) opportunities. Quite simply, head coach Nathaniel Hackett looks out of his league.
Defensively, the Broncos have an advantage. They are allowing only 16 points per game (fourth fewest), while the Chargers are allowing 27.2 (third most).
The question is: Can this Denver offense take advantage of the soft Chargers defense? Look for Gordon to have a big role as the Chargers are allowing 130 rushing yards per game. If Wilson is fully healthy, he certainly has the weapons to put up some big numbers vs. a Chargers defense that has allowed 238 passing yards per game and 14 total touchdowns – but that’s a big if.
The Chargers are 4-1 vs the spread so far, winning three of the four games in which they were favored. The Broncos are 1-4 vs. the spread, covering one game as the underdog.
Chargers games have gone over 60% of the time this year, while Broncos games have gone under 80% of the time.
Until we see Russ cook, let’s stay out of the kitchen. Take the Chargers to cover on Monday night.
The Pick:
Chargers -4.5
Under 45.5
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