Look for the Saints to keep Tom Brady’s numbers under wraps.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6) host the New Orleans Saints (4-8) in what should be a great Monday Night Football game between the NFC South rivals. The game is expected to be low-scoring, with the total being set at only 40.5 at SI Sportsbook. Accordingly, we are looking at a few under props for this matchup which feature Tom Brady. The Buccaneers are favored by 3.5 in this game and sit on top of the NFC South, but they do not have a winning record, and they are averaging only 18.2 points per game (bottom-six in the NFL). I expect this one to be more of a defensive showdown, with Tampa Bay’s run game being featured when possible.
Here are the player props I am targeting at SI Sportsbook:
Tom Brady under 272.5 passing yards (-118)
For the most part, the Saints have owned Brady since he arrived in Tampa Bay. In five regular season starts vs. the Saints, he has only thrown for 250-plus yards twice, and his completion rate was only above 59.4% once. The Saints have been dominant vs. the pass in the last four games, allowing only 176 passing yards per game. Mike Evans will likely be shut down by Marshon Lattimore and Brady, who is averaging 277.4 passing yards per game this season, will come up short.
Tom Brady under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-105)
Tom Brady has only thrown for two or more touchdowns three times this year. Yes, all of his receiving weapons are healthy, but the Bucs would do well to lean on the run game vs. the Saints, who have allowed 187 yards per game to runners across the last four contests. That’s the fifth most in that time span. Brady may win this one, but I doubt he does it in dramatic aerial fashion.
Chris Godwin over 67.5 receiving yards (-125)
I’m not high on Brady this week but I am high on Chris Godwin, who should be seeing plenty of attention from Brady with Mike Evans being shadowed by Marshon Lattimore, who clearly owns Mike Evans. Godwin is averaging 65 receiving yards per game, but since Week 6, he’s seeing a 26.8% target share and a 23.9% air yard share with an average of more than 11 targets per game. Last week, he caught 12 passes for 110 yards and a TD. I expect he will have another good game on Monday.
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