A MNF betting breakdown of the matchup between New York and Tampa Bay.
Week 11 of the 2021 NFL season concludes on Monday night when Tom Brady and Tampa Bay play host to the New York Giants in an NFC battle.
The question for bettors is this: Are you willing to bet against the G.O.A.T on Monday Night Football? Brady owns an 18-7 career record under the bright lights of Monday Night Football. However, is the double-digit spread too much for investors to lay to the oddsmakers?
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Tampa Bay, which sits atop the NFC South with a 6-3 Straight Up (SU) record, has only managed a disappointing 3-6 Against The Spread (ATS) record over that span. The Buccaneers, who are 4-0 (SU) at home, have earned all three of their ATS wins (3-1) at Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay will look to lean on its success at home to snap a two-game SU and ATS losing streak. In fact, dating back to last season the Buccaneers have posted an impressive 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS mark over their last eight home games.
On the flip side, the Giants, despite owning a 3-6 SU record, have rewarded bettors with a 5-4 ATS mark this season. New York, which has posted a 3-0 ATS mark in their last three games, has posted impressive ATS road success for bettors against Kansas City, New Orleans and Washington.
New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Trends and Info
Spread: New York Giants +10.5 (-110) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10.5 (-110)
Moneyline: New York (+410) | Tampa Bay (-550)
Total: 49.5– Over (-110) | Under 49.5 (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: NYG 59% | TB 41%
Game Info: Monday Nov. 22, 2021 8:15 pm EST | ESPN
Editor's Note: Odds are subject to change
The line has ticked down a half point in favor of New York (3-6 SU; 5-4 ATS) settling with Tampa Bay (6-3 SU; 5-4 ATS) as 10.5-point home favorites at SI Sportsbook.
The Giants head to Tampa Bay looking to earn their third win in the last four games after beating Las Vegas and Carolina in recent weeks. New York will need a big game from quarterback Daniel Jones as the Giants only rank 24th in the NFL in scoring, producing 19.9 points per game. Tampa Bay, which owns the NFL’s second-best rush defense (79.8 yards per game), will force the Giants to be one-dimensional and dare Jones to beat them. On the other side of the ball, Brady pilots the league's third-best scoring offense at 31.0 points per game. Brady, who leads all quarterbacks in passing yards per game (315.6), will have a solid chance to top 300 yards for the fifth time this season, as he likely welcomes back tight end Rob Gronkowski (ribs) on Monday night.
Buccaneers Player Prop Info
In the backfield, Tampa Bay will feature Leonard Fournette, who has been solid -- averaging 4.3 yards per rush while finding the end zone four times this season. On the outside, Brady has locked in and produced in a big way for fantasy managers with both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. The duo has been sensational, combining for 1,323 yards and 14 total touchdowns. Godwin, who has hauled in five-plus receptions in six of nine games, has become Brady’s go-to wideout from the slot. The fifth-year wide receiver is tied for seventh in the NFL with 57 receptions. Respected money has targeted his teammate, Evans, who is tied for second in the NFL with nine receiving touchdowns, in this matchup. Evans appears to be a solid investment to surpass his betting reception projection of 4.5 in Week 11 -- a number he has surpassed in four of the last five games.
Giants Player Prop Info
On the other side of the ball, New York will try to prove the oddsmakers wrong once again. The Giants have earned the designation of underdog in eight of nine games, posting a 5-3 ATS mark in that role. New York will look to develop a game plan that will lead to Jones finding success in the air. The third-year signal caller has failed to top 267 passing yards in eight of nine games. The potential return of star running back Saquon Barkley (ankle) to the field for the first time since Week 5 would help the production of Jones immensely. When the Giants offense is on the field, fantasy managers should look to insert wideout Kenny Golladay into all lineups. The veteran wideout has a receptions total of 3.5 posted at SI Sportsbook. The veteran wideout has battled injuries all season and struggled to stay on the field in his first year with the Giants. When healthy, Golladay has shown the ability to make plays like he did in the first month of the season, when he surpassed this projection in three of four games.
Frankie's Monday Night Football Play
On paper, this one appears to be an auto wager against a Giants team that is 1-3 SU on the road against a team that is undefeated (4-0 SU) at home with aspirations to repeat as Super Bowl champions. Tampa Bay’s recent losing skid has caused them to fall behind both the Cardinals and Packers. The Giants own the worst red-zone offense in the NFL and will now face a motivated Brady determined to not lose three in a row. The Giants could potentially have several important weapons back on the offensive side of the ball that will enable them to keep pace. Let's see the scoreboard light up!
BET: Over 49.5 (-110)
PROP BETS:
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay: OVER 4.5 receptions
Kenny Golladay, WR, Giants: Over 3.5 receptions
Kenny Golladay, WR, Giants: Over 51.5 receiving yards
SI BET REVIEW
2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 6-4 ATS / Props 10-9 +4.85 units
2021 SI Betting NFL Football Overall YTD: 29-22 ATS & Props +8.05 Units
2020 SI Betting NFL Football: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.