A MNF betting breakdown of the matchup between the Dolphins and Saints.
Did Santa Claus fill your sports betting apps with some extra funds? Well if you followed my Christmas week ‘Best Bet’ from Thursday, which suggested a two-team teaser wager combining Tennessee (+10.5) with Indianapolis (+8), then you recouped some of the money spent on holiday feasts and gifts. My picks here at SI Betting, sharing respected information from Las Vegas, are now up over 11 units on the NFL season!
Will the Miami Dolphins, who are 3-1-1 ATS on the road this season, emerge victorious against a depleted Saints squad that will be missing starting quarterback Taysom Hill (COVID-19)? In Week 16, New Orleans will play host to Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins with rookie signal caller Ian Book seeing the first action of his NFL career. The Saints, who are just 1-4 ATS at home this season, will hope to extend their current two-game winning streak after earning road victories over the Jets and Buccaneers.
Rich Barnes/USA TODAY Sports
Miami, which is just 2-3 straight up (SU) on the road, will look to get to the .500 mark away from Hard Rock Stadium. The Dolphins will also aim to extend their overall six-game winning streak, which has rewarded bettors with a 5-1-1 ATS mark over that span. The Saints who are 2-5 SU over their last seven games, are just 3-4 ATS when oddsmakers have listed them as favorites this season.
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Saints head coach Sean Payton has relished being on the sideline under the bright lights of Monday Night Football posting a 17-8 mark in 25 games. Overall, the Saints are 35-16 (.686) under Payton in prime time games.
Miami Dolphins vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Trends and Info
- Spread: Miami Dolphins -2.5 (-110) | New Orleans Saints +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Miami (-150) | New Orleans (+120)
- Total: 37.5– Over (-110) | Under 37.5 (-110)
- Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: MIA 53% | NO 47%
- Game Info: Monday, Dec. 26, 2021 | 8:20 pm EST | NFL Network
The line has shifted significantly from its opening of New Orleans (7-7 SU; 7-7 ATS) as 3.5-point home favorites to Miami (7-7 SU; 7-6-1 ATS) now a 2.5-point road favorite at SI Sportsbook upon the news of Hill testing positive for COVID-19. The total, which opened at 39, has dropped to 37.5.
The Dolphins head to New Orleans looking to stay red hot thanks to a stellar defense that is allowing only 13.2 points per game over its six-game winning streak. The Miami offense has benefitted from the best stretch of Tagovailoa’s young career as the former Heisman Trophy winner has completed 75% of his passes and accounted for six total touchdowns in two of his last three games.
In the passing game, the Dolphins' best threat is rookie wideout Jaylen Waddle, who has been everything the club envisioned since investing a first-round investment in last April’s NFL Draft. The former Alabama standout, who has 7-plus receptions in six of the last eight games, leads the club in targets (114), receptions (86), receiving yards (896) and touchdowns (4).
The Dolphins may struggle to establish balance on offense with the league’s 28th-ranked rushing offense (86.6 yards per game) facing a stiff New Orleans run defense that is allowing the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (96.6).
On the other side of the ball, bettors and oddsmakers are skeptical on what to expect in Ian Book’s first career NFL start. New Orleans, who owns the league's 15th-ranked rushing offense at 117.4 rushing yards per game, will look to lean heavily on star running back Alvin Kamara. It is highly likely that Book will look to target Kamara with strong target volume in the passing game since the Miami defense has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Kamara’s “Receiving Touchdown” market of ‘over’ 0.5 at odds of +420 is attractive for some Eggnog Money! The versatile fifth-year back has four receiving touchdowns on the year, while posting 19 touchdowns via the air in 70 career regular-season games.
Chuck Cook/USA TODAY Sports
As we continue to stress, if you are under the assumption that backing home teams in the NFL is a blind profitable endeavor this season you need to pay closer attention. Home teams are just 101-124-1 (44.8%) ATS, while more specifically home underdogs are a disappointing 42-47 (47.2%) ATS thus far in 2021.
Despite an imposing defense, it is simply too hard to back New Orleans, which has been ravaged by COVID-19. Despite the flip in pointspread, Miami is still worthy of an investment in a likely low-scoring affair.
NOTE: Normally we have player proposition wagers, but due to the COVID-19 outbreak, sportsbooks are not currently listing many major markets at the time of this publishing.
BET: Miami -2.5 (-110)
PLAYER PROP
“Eggnog Money:” Alvin Kamara Receiving Touchdown OVER 0.5 +420
SI BET REVIEW
2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 8-7 ATS / Props 15-11 +6.15 units
2021 SI Betting NFL Football Overall YTD: 44-35 ATS & Props +11.62 Units
2020 SI Betting NFL Football: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.