The restart of the NBA in the Orlando bubble is just around the corner! SI Gambling analyst Corey Parson continues his NBA Bubble Bets series breaking down his top early odds. Today, he’s looking at the win total for the Sacramento Kings.
With DraftKings Sportsbook releasing its team win totals weeks before the seeding round of the NBA bubble restart in Orlando, it’s time to jump on some early value.
Today we’ll continue our breakdowns with the Sacramento Kings.
The Kings are currently outside of the playoffs in the Western Conference, so they will have to make up plenty of ground to catch the eighth-seeded Memphis Grizzlies.
Sacramento Kings Seeding Round Team Total Wins - 3.5
Over 3.5 (+175 ) / Under 3.5 (-240)
Seeding Round Opponents: San Antonio, Orlando, Dallas, New Orleans, Brooklyn, Houston, Los Angeles Lakers
Record vs Seeding Round Opponents: 3-9
Sacramento Kings Win Totals
I can hear you all now…
“Oh boy! Corey is at it again! He is trying to convince us to take a shot with our good money on a losing team that he will call up-and-coming…”
Well, you’re absolutely correct.
When the NBA season came to a pause, the Kings had a 28-36 record. Obviously, that’s nothing to brag about, but when you look at their record after the All-Star break and before the season paused, Luke Walton's team was playing excellent basketball.
Sacramento was 7-3 after the break. Still not impressed? Check out their wins in that stretch: two victories over Memphis, a win over the Clippers and a win over the Trail Blazers.
Their three losses came against Oklahoma City, Philadelphia, and Toronto, and those losses are nothing to be ashamed of.
Sacramento is led by a dynamic young backcourt of De'Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield, and veterans Bogdan Bogdanovic and Marvin Bagley are healthy and ready to go.
Another longtime veteran, Harrison Barnes, tested positive for coronavirus, but he plans on joining his teammates in Orlando when it is safe to do so.
Where will these four wins come from? Two of them will come when they beat Brooklyn and San Antonio. That’s two out of the way.
I can see a split with the Pelicans, and then they would just need one more victory over Dallas, Orlando, Houston or the Lakers. More importantly, DraftKings has heavy juice on the under, so over 3.5 right now returns at +175 odds. With four wins clearly in play, it's definitely worth the risk.
Additionally, the Lakers may not be playing for much so the Kings could steal that game, The Mavericks, on the other hand, will be playing for something as our Mavericks Insider Mike Fisher lets us know:
"In terms of seeding,'' Carlisle told us, "our goal is going to be to move up in the standings. It's always better to be a high seed because it means you're playing good and doing things to get better every day and that's how we're going to approach it.''
What teams are playing for will be important in the seeding rounds, but I trust the Kings to go over the 3.5 wins.