Rudy Gobert is a slight betting favorite over Draymond Green to the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year for the fourth time in five years and second straight season.
Defensive Player of the Year, generally speaking, is won by centers.
A center has won the award three of the last five years. In this case, though, it’s been the same center: Rudy Gobert. Six of the last 10 winners have played the center position as well. The exceptions in the last decade have been forwards Kawhi Leonard (twice), Draymond Green and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
There hasn’t been a contested race for DPOY in recent seasons. The winner has commanded the majority of the vote and the odds tell the story of Gobert earning the honor for the fourth time in five seasons and second straight season despite the step back the Jazz have taken as a team defensively this year.
Gobert is a smart bet to win it, especially at plus-odds at SI Sportsbook. The DPOY is no stranger to repeat winners (Gobert, Leonard, Dwight Howard, Ben Wallace).
As part of the NBA Futures betting series, I’ll be making the case for the favorite, a value bet and a sleeper for each of the league’s individual honors.
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Jazz center Rudy Gobert +170
Warriors forward Draymond Green +210
Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo +400
Grizzlies forward Jaren Jackson Jr. +650
76ers center Joel Embiid +1800
(All stats updated as of Feb. 17)
The Favorite: Rudy Gobert (+170)
The previous two winners of the award led the league in defensive win shares. Gobert is sixth in that metric, behind the likes of Jayson Tatum and Nikola Jokic. He’s also 10th in defensive box plus/minus. Gobert usually shines in the light of the advanced statistics, like last season when he had a healthy lead for first place in defensive win shares and finished fifth in defensive box plus/minus. Utah's defense is not what it was last season, though. Utah’s defensive rating has fallen from third to 10th.
Of course, Gobert is the glue that keeps that unit even competitive. Where his advanced numbers have dipped, his counting stats have improved. Gobert averages a career-best and NBA-leading 14.8 rebounds per game. He’s also second in the league in blocks per game (2.3) and adds 0.8 steals per game. Gobert defends the most attempted field goals (21.3) in the NBA this season and holds opposing players’ field-goal percentage 5.1% below their field goal-percentage.
Gobert’s candidacy isn’t as secure as it has been in recent years., but his reputation certainly precedes him in this space.
Even in a down year for the Jazz, he’s still putting up the numbers to make his case.
Value Bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo (+400)
Like the Jazz, the Bucks have taken a step back defensively this season. In their championship campaign, they ranked ninth in defensive rating and have slipped to 12th this season. That’s not Antetokounmpo’s fault, though.
He’s averaging 1.4 blocks per game, 12th-most in the NBA and his most since the 2018-19 season. (Antetokounmpo averaged one block and one steal for the top-rated defensive unit when he won DPOY for the 2019-20 season).
The advanced numbers support Antetokounmpo’s case, but he’s not running away with anything—yet. He ranks ninth in defensive win shares (just behind Steph Curry) but second in defensive box plus/minus.
Bucks center Brook Lopez missing essentially the entire season bolsters the argument for Antetokounmpo. Lopez may not be the most athletic big in the NBA, but he is a key component of Milwaukee’s defense for whom Antetokounmpo had to make up for with stopgap help from Bobby Portis and new reinforcement Serge Ibaka.
The value for Antetokounmpo at the third-best odds is enticing. Draymond Green, who’s only played 34 games this season, still has better odds than Antetokounmpo to win DPOY. He’s a solid bet in a year where there’s seemingly no runaway winner.
Ken Blaze/USA TODAY Sports
Sleeper: Jarrett Allen (+4500)
The Cavaliers have the No. 4 defensive rating and allow the fewest points per game in the league (102.5). Allen, in his second year in Cleveland, is a huge reason why. He’s grabbing a career-best 11 rebounds per game, the 10th-most in the NBA.
His block numbers are down (1.3 per game, his fewest since his final year with the Nets), though he’s averaging a career-best 0.7 steals per game).
Allen ranks fifth in defensive wins shares right behind Gobert. His defensive box plus/minus hurts his candidacy though—he’s 27th by that metric. Allen doesn’t defend as many shots per game as Gobert, but he holds opposing players 6.7% below their field goal percentage, which is the best mark of any high-volume defender.
The addition of Evan Mobley to the mix in Cleveland is certainly worth mentioning. His advanced numbers support his own case for DPOY, which is why he has even better odds than his teammate to win the award. Simply put: It’s hard to see a rookie winning this award. I like Allen’s long shot odds on one of the best defensive teams.
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