Who has the best shot at winning the NBA Finals amid a wide-open field?
We’re well into the second round of the playoffs in Orlando, and the 2020 postseason appears to be one of the most intriguing in recent memory. No true favorite has emerged as the Los Angeles juggernauts struggle, and all eight teams left have a legitimate shot at the Finals. There is no dynasty in sight. The path to the Larry O’Brien Trophy is largely clear.
So who has the best shot at winning the Finals amid a wide-open field? We at The Crossover sifted through the slate of contenders in our latest playoff power rankings.
8. Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are likely to fall short in the 2020 title chase, but we should all exit Orlando with a greater respect for their championship chances in the next decade. Jamal Murray has cemented himself as an elite scoring guard, one who is certainly deserving of his max extension. Nikola Jokic remains an All-NBA talent despite his defensive shortcomings, and there’s an emerging support cast behind Denver’s top two. The Nuggets should be able to make an offseason upgrade as Paul Millsap exits the picture. With the right addition or two, the 2021 Finals could be legitimately in sight.
7. Milwaukee Bucks
It took a Khris Middelton inferno to save the Bucks in Game 4, and it’s unlikely Giannis Antetokounmpo makes a major impact even if he can play on Tuesday. Miami should close the series out sooner than later, leaving a long offseason ahead for Milwaukee. So where exactly will the Bucks turn? It’s hard to see any sizable shifts. The Bucks could have a hard time matching salaries if they wish to add Chris Paul, and there isn’t exactly cap space abound. Expect Milwaukee to improve on the margins, then hope to make Giannis’ decision easy with a run to the Finals. There are certainly worse paths after a 62-win pace in 2019-20. Perhaps Milwaukee will cruise without a stunted season next year as they quell the anxiety surrounding next summer.
6. Toronto Raptors
The Raptors remain an impressive transition unit, and Nick Nurse has done a masterful job throwing a slate of unique coverages at the Celtics. But Toronto feels one scorer short as they eye back-to-back Finals. Pascal Siakam has largely been neutralized by Boston’s wings, and it’s been a nightmarish series for Fred VanVleet. There’s simply a lack of firepower on the roster, and there’s no Hall-of-Famer ready to lead the way down the stretch. We shouldn’t count out the champions, but the Raptors’ season could be ending sooner than later. After a brutal offensive performance in Game 4, Wednesday night may mark the conclusion of their title defense.
5. Houston Rockets
The ebbs and flows of Russell Westbrook could decide Houston’s season, and we saw the worst of Westbrook in Game 2. Houston’s point guard made just one of seven threes on Sunday night, adding seven turnovers in one of his worst performances of the season. There’s a blueprint for Westbrook to thrive alongside the small-ball Rockets. He played like a true superstar from Jan. 1 through the season’s suspension, consistently plowing downhill off the catch as teams doubled James Harden. Houston’s offense hummed with Westbrook at its best as a flood of threes buried opponents. That rhythm wasn’t present in Game 2. An extended slump from Westbrook could end Houston’s season despite its legitimate Finals aspirations.
4. Miami Heat
Most discussions of team culture are an overused crutch. That’s in no way the case with the Heat. Erik Spoelstra and Co. lead the most empowering and efficient organization in basketball, mining quality performances from a host of misfit toys. Bam Adebayo may be the game’s best small-ball center. Duncan Robinson has become a historic three-point weapon. Spoelstra has unwavering confidence in his team, an attitude reflected by leading man Jimmy Butler. The Bucks aren’t dead, and the Celtics or Raptors will provide quite the challenge in the next round. But don’t mistake Miami for anything other than a true title contender. The unlikely challenger is finding its footing at the perfect time.
3. Boston Celtics
There was a strange minimum of chatter regarding the Celtics' Finals chances entering the playoffs, and it appears as though we’ve made a collective mistake in dismissing their candidacy. Boston has two legitimate impact wings, including one who will likely reach All-NBA status in 2020-21. Kemba Walker has returned to form in the postseason, and Daniel Theis’ impressive stretch has limited Boston’s size concerns. We have an outside chance of Lakers vs. Celtics in the Finals, which would be a relative bonanza for Adam Silver and the league office. Don’t expect Boston to back down regardless of its opponent the rest of the way.
2. Los Angeles Lakers
The championship ceiling of the Lakers isn’t hard to spot. Los Angeles has two of the top five players left in the bubble, including the best player of his generation. LeBron James and Anthony Davis ran roughshod over the Rockets in Game 2, and their performances are unlikely to be any form of an outlier. But the Lakers aren’t without their warts. Their centers have become largely worthless against Houston, a trend that could continue vs. the Clippers. We’re not exactly getting 2018 Cavaliers vibes here, but this remains a shaky supporting cast nonetheless. The Lakers’ superstars should carry enough weight to outduel the Rockets. That may not be the case against their cross-town rival.
1. Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers look every bit like the eventual champion when they play at their best. Kawhi Leonard matches his defensive dominance with unreal efficiency from the field, and Los Angeles has no shortage of capable scorers flanking the Finals MVP. Paul George can still make a sizable impact even when he doesn’t shoot well. The Clippers can upsize and downsize with relative ease. Picking Kawhi and Co. to win the Finals is anything but an uncommon bet.
Yet there’s still shakiness about this team in the most open Finals race in recent memory. Nikola Jokic devoured the Clippers’ frontcourt in Game 2 and Game 3. Imagine what Anthony Davis can do. The George duds are legitimately problematic, and Lou Williams remains a vulnerable defender. This could all end up being nitpicky come October as the Clippers cruise to the title, but let’s not act like there is a clear favorite by any stretch. The two Los Angeles teams are effectively a toss-up at this point.