LeBron James and the Lakers appear to be nearing peak form after dominating the Blazers on Kobe Bryant day. What other teams are trending up as we approach the conference semifinals?
We’re more than midway through the first round, and we haven’t seen as much chalk as many assumed entering the postseason. The East remains tame, but the West has devolved into significant chaos, with Utah seizing a lead as Oklahoma City and Dallas fight for significant upsets. Young superstars are emerging. A certain ill-nicknamed superstar is struggling. It hasn’t taken long for the fireworks to begin with seven weeks left in Orlando.
Let’s take a look at who’s trending up and who’s trending down as we approach the conference semifinals.
Eliminated
16. Brooklyn Nets
It was a respectable performance for the Nets in Orlando, but it will hopefully be nothing compared to next summer for Brooklyn. Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving will return to the floor with a mystery coach and an unproven roster, but there’s still plenty of potential if both can remain healthy. The Barclays Center could be home to the most fascinating team in basketball in 2020.
15. Orlando Magic
If Fred VanVleet is cruising to a nine-figure contract this offseason, how should we describe Evan Fournier’s contract push? Fournier’s production has stalled (to put it charitably) in round one against Milwaukee, with a minus-28 in Game 3 followed by a 4-14 shooting effort in Game 4 on Monday. We shouldn’t disparage Fournier too much. He is a legitimately valuable player for Orlando’s misshapen roster, and he’s quietly turned in an impressive statistical season. But perhaps opting in to $17 million next year is the right move. It’s hard to see anyone really investing in Fournier past 2020-21.
14. Philadelphia 76ers
It’s hard to find a pathway for improvement in Philadelphia barring a deal of Ben Embiid or Joel Simmons. That’s not a criticism of either player, or necessarily their lack of fit together. Embiid and Simmons are imperfect, but there’s a world in which a dynamic roster can be constructed to support their unique talents. That doesn’t exist in Philadelphia. There aren’t enough (or any) true secondary playmakers. Neither Tobias Harris nor Al Horford are All-Star players, or even All-Star-adjacent at this point. The Sixers had every pathway imaginable with their young stars just a few years ago. A series of questionable decisions led them to this regrettable point. With little trade value across the roster, there’s little help coming for Philadelphia’s dynamic duo. At some point, a divorce is on the way.
13. Indiana Pacers
So where exactly does Indiana go from here? There’s a solid core of players in place, especially if Domantas Sabonis returns fully healthy. There’s the outside chance of an Oladipo resurgence, and T.J. Warren shined in the bubble. But there still looks to be a legitimate ceiling in place. The Pacers don’t have a Tatum or Siakam or even Embiid despite Philly’s turmoil. The Finals will remain a longshot year after year barring an unforeseen deal. There are certainly worse fates in the NBA, but there has to be some frustration in the Pacers’ situation. They could very well be spinning their wheels after a round-one exit next year.
Still Fighting
12. Portland Trail Blazers
The clock is nearing midnight on Portland’s season, so we should take a moment to recognize what a delightful ride it’s been. Damian Lillard’s rainbows have been the non-Luka highlight of the bubble, while Jusuf Nurkic, Gary Trent Jr. and Carmelo Anthony each provided their own share of quality play. We can still question the ceiling of this group, especially in the Western Conference. But don't let the Finals be the sole arbiter of our appreciation. Lillard is a legitimate superstar, and one of the league most fun players by any metric.
11. Denver Nuggets
It’s fair to understand Mike Malone’s reticence regarding Michael Porter Jr.’s playing time. While the Missouri product is a legitimate scoring phenom, he’s been an absolute sieve defensively vs. Utah. Jazz players have made 26 of 41 shots when guarded by Porter Jr., through four games, and the young forward is hunted time and again when he’s on the floor. Jamal Murray is another subpar defender. There’s no true rim protector in the rotation. Donovan Mitchell’s scoring explosions are certainly impressive, but his opponent is doing him plenty of favors in round one.
10. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Rockets’ defense has clamped down on opponents in the bubble, but Oklahoma City’s trio of guards have begun to exploit the holes in Houston’s small-ball unit. The Thunder have gotten to the rim at will in Game 3 and Game 4, with Dennis Schroder leading the way in a 30-point effort on Monday. Perhaps Russell Westbrook’s return will change the tenor of the series. For now, the Thunder are a serious threat for an upset.
9. Dallas Mavericks
Whatever praise we heap on Luka Doncic after his game-winner on Sunday feels insufficient. It’s hard to recall a 21-year-old so polished, and few players in the league feel as comfortable in the spotlight. Doncic is the league’s future and perhaps very shortly its present. I’ll be quiet now. Enjoy the highlights.
8. Utah Jazz
It’s clear Denver has no answers for Donovan Mitchell, but don’t forget about Mike Conley. The Ohio State product was written off by much of the basketball intelligentsia by March. Utah fans had already fired up the trade machine. But the extended break appears to have rejuvenated the former Memphis point guard. Conley has scored a combined 53 points on 26 shots in his last two games, shooting an outrageous 11-16 from three. Shooting regression is bound to kick in, though Conley has been effective nonetheless. He’s been a key secondary next to Mitchell playmaker against Denver.
7. Houston Rockets
The Rockets aren’t changing their three-happy style anytime soon, but at least some modicum of variety could go a long way down the stretch. James Harden and Co. missed 21 of their last 26 threes in Game 4 on Monday, and their legs seemed to abandon them late in the contest. Russell Westbrook’s return should give Houston the other element they so desperately need. If he continues to sit, Harden should look at alternate ways to light up the scoreboard.
6. Miami Heat
Erik Spoelstra will likely always be underrated due to the talent he inherited in Miami, and he has a legitimate case as the best coach in basketball. The two-time champion may have done his best work yet in 2019-20. Miami dispatched a feisty Indiana team with ease in round one, rarely breaking a sweat as Jimmy Butler and Co. cruised to a sweep. Miami’s youngsters are thriving. The Heat defense is stifling. The Bucks remain a heavy favorite in round two, but Spoelstra’s squad isn’t rolling over anytime soon. This series should extend past a gentleman’s sweep.
5. Boston Celtics
There was legitimate reason for concern regarding Kemba Walker entering the 2020 playoffs. Knee injuries hampered his first year with Boston, and the UConn product shot just 37% from the field in his last 15 regular-season games. But round one against Philadelphia featured a return to form. Walker averaged 24.3 points per game on 49 percent shooting, and he looked like his usual shifty self driving to the basket. The Celtics face a major challenge in round two against Toronto, especially if Gordon Hayward doesn’t play. They’ll need Walker at his best to advance to the conference finals.
4. Los Angeles Clippers
Paul George is right when he says he isn’t James Harden, but Kawhi Leonard’s running mate has to show some semblance of scoring punch for the Clippers to contend for the Finals. George’s jumper has abandoned him at the worst time, and the extended stretches without impactful plays continues to be frustrating. This isn’t coming from a George critic. He deserved a top-three MVP finish last year, and the Fresno State product is a legitimate All-NBA talent. But the playoff struggles are extending past the realm of circumstance. Perhaps Leonard did pick the wrong supporting cast last summer.
3. Toronto Raptors
Toronto’s Game 4 thrashing of the Nets encapsulated the franchise’s excellence under Masai Ujiri. The Raptors scored a team-record 150 points as they completed the sweep of Brooklyn, and their bench tallied an NBA-record 100 points. Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam are non-lottery franchise anchors. Serge Ibaka has seen a serious career revival. We assumed acquiring Kawhi Leonard would force a rebuild after one season. But Toronto now stands as more than a viable threat to repeat even without the two-time Finals MVP.
2. Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers appear to be nearing peak form, which should frankly be terrifying to the rest of the Western Conference. Anthony Davis is pulverizing the paint against Portland, and he could do the same against Houston in round two. LeBron James may be a notch below his peak athleticism, but he remains, well, the best player of his generation. There’s enough talent in this dynamic duo to overcome nearly any roster shortcoming. We shouldn’t let a cold shooting night distract from the Lakers’ immense talent
1. Milwaukee Bucks
Poor Orlando has absolutely no answer for Giannis Antetokounmpo, who ripped off 35 points on 12-14 shooting in a Game 4 blowout on Monday. We’ve spent the last few weeks dissecting every shortcoming with Milwaukee, and Toronto has emerged as an effective co-favorite in the East. But we shouldn’t forget the first portion of the season. Antetokounmpo is a physical marvel unseen since peak Shaq. This roster is largely engineered toward his strengths. Nick Nurse will have to construct the game-plan of a lifetime if the champs meet the MVP in the Eastern Conference finals.