Handing out goals for the top eight picks as the NBA enters the stretch-run.
There are 20-something games left for the 2021 draft class as we exit the All-Star break, with one more opportunity for the league’s youngsters to make an imprint on the Rookie of the Year race.
Evan Mobley is the healthy favorite at the moment, though perhaps a hot month from Cade Cunningham or Scottie Barnes could change the conversation. Look past the awards jockeying, and the most recent crop of rookies is flush with talent. We’ll save the comparisons to 1996 or 2003 for another day. But there’s no doubting the depth of the ’21 class, even in its early stages.
So what do we hope to see from this year’s rookies before the 2021-22 season comes to a close? Let’s cycle through some post-All-Star resolutions for each of the top eight picks in the ’21 draft.
Cade Cunningham, Pistons
Resolution: Increase Free-Throw Rate
Mobley would likely be the No. 1 pick if Detroit was given a mulligan, though that’s no slight to Cunningham. The Oklahoma State product has been a controlled and heady playmaker from his first weeks in the league, and we’ve seen enough flashes of high-level scoring to project Cunningham as a viable leading man. Perhaps most encouraging is Cunningham’s makeup, with a professionalism and intensity that was even present during All-Star weekend. Don’t let the high turnover counts detract from the highs of his rookie season.
Cunningham should grow into being a plus shooter. He’s shooting 35% from three and 86.5% from the line since Jan. 1, though it’s not the percentages that are the present problem. Cunningham is averaging just two free throws per game this season, fewer than small guards Mike Conley and Darius Garland. Cunningham has attempted zero free throws a staggering 18 times, and he’s attempted more than five free throws just twice. Scoring at an efficient rate is nearly impossible with so few trips to the line.
Some of this is likely due to Cunningham’s status as, well, a rookie. But part of the culpability falls on Cunningham. He’s not a particularly speedy driver, and his patient snaking through the lane is to his benefit. Perhaps he can steal a few pages out of the books of Chris Paul, James Harden and Trae Young, using his frame to initiate contact both near the foul line and at the rim. It’s not pretty, but forcing the issue is often the most effective way to generate whistles. Cunningham has a bright future ahead, with a potential All-NBA ceiling still in play. Generating free points at the line is crucial to achieving that goal.
Jalen Green, Rockets
Resolution: Gain Extended Reps as Playmaker
It’s been an uneven rookie year for Green, though he began to turn the corner before the All-Star break. Green is averaging 16.5 points per game on 46.4% shooting in February, scoring double-digit points in each of his last 10 contests. Green sports one of the game’s most explosive first steps. He can turn the corner on even the quickest defenders, and he’s beginning to find greater success scoring over and around NBA length. Yet the impressive flashes often seem lost in the greater context of a given game. Green can often feel like an ancillary piece in Houston’s attack, relegated to corner shooter duty as Kevin Porter Jr., Christian Wood or Eric Gordon gobble up isolation opportunities. Green’s talent deserves a better platform for progress.
An easy fix could come via simple staggering by coach Stephen Silas, in which Porter and Green effectively split time running the show. If that’s deemed counterproductive to the ultimate goal, perhaps the Rockets can try to force the action Green’s way via various actions where he can catch the ball on the move near the elbow or foul line. Green has solid instincts as a playmaker. He’s beginning to find the corner shooter with greater frequency. As Houston enters its second straight tank, it’s time to turn the keys over to the No. 2 pick.
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Evan Mobley, Cavaliers
Resolution: Attack With Aggression Off the Catch
Any criticism of Mobley will effectively be nitpicking at this point. He’s a fringe candidate for Defensive Player of the Year as a rookie, and he is a thoughtful and effective connector as a passer. Mobley dances with guards and denies incoming wings with ease. He has some touch within the foul line, and he’s a more violent finisher than originally assumed. The more he trusts his instincts the better.
Mobley remains an efficient half-court piece, averaging a healthy 0.95 points per isolation possession and 0.96 points per post-up. Yet he still seems to be leaving some points on the table out of sheer hesitation. There’s often an extra beat of surveillance from Mobley either as he stands with the ball or begins a series of lateral dribbles. The wait is unnecessary. Mobley has the size and talent to get to the rim with ease off one bounce, and he will grow comfortable punishing defenses that start to sag. Mobley is already going to be a multi-time All-Star. Embracing the edges of his offensive potential could create an MVP candidate.
Scottie Barnes, Raptors
Resolution: Smooth Out Three-Point Shot
Toronto’s selection of Barnes has turned from a bit of a surprise into a stroke of genius as the Florida State rookie rampages through the league. Barnes is among the most physically imposing rookies in recent memory on the wing, and defied many draft critics with notable flashes of high-level scoring ability. Barnes’s 23-point, 12-rebound, five-assist effort against Brooklyn in December likely stands out as the highlight of his rookie season, a contest that featured a smooth step-back that perfectly encapsulated Barnes’s potential. Add in with the Raptors’ penchant for player development, and we should see a franchise anchor emerge for years to come.
Barnes remains a bit of an unpolished product despite his obvious potential. He can get a bit high with his dribble, and more notably, his jumper ebbs and flows by the month. His motion is still a bit stiff, and he’s shooting just 27.8% from beyond the arc since the calendar turned to 2022. This isn’t any major concern, more something to keep a tab on for the next 20 games, and moreover, next season. If Barnes is even a middling spot-up shooter, look out.
Jalen Suggs, Magic
Resolution: Improve at the Rim
Suggs was an efficient finisher in college, shooting 58.8% from the field on two-point attempts as he led Gonzaga to the Final Four. That hasn’t translated to the NBA thus far. Suggs is shooting just 39.5% on drives this season, the worst mark of all 78 players with at least 150 field goal attempts at the rim. This isn’t necessarily a death knell to Suggs’s future, nor is it overly uncommon for rookie guards. Both Josh Giddey and Green rank in the bottom 15 on this list. Garland didn’t clear 45% on drives as a rookie. Suggs doesn’t avoid contact in the lane. He’s not a wiry guard, with his football background still evident as he barrels to the rim. His shaky percentages could very well be a product of sample size as he looks to log a healthy final 20-plus games.
Josh Giddey, Thunder
Resolution: Grow As an Off-the-Dribble Shooter
It’s hard to not spend major portions of this column raving about Giddey. The Australian rookie plays with the calm and creativity of a 30-something veteran at point guard, and he shouldered an increased role with relative ease when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was out of the lineup before the All-Star break. Giddey averaged 16.4 points, 7.9 assists and 8.7 rebounds per game in February on 46.6% shooting, pulling off a sort of JV version of Russell Westbrook’s historic trio of seasons from 2016 to ’19. Sam Presti mined another draft gem with the No. 6 pick.
Giddey is almost guaranteed to play until the 2030s given good health, though earning All-Star honors will likely depend on his growth as a scorer. Giddey isn’t totally inept as a spot-up shooter, though he still leaves something to be desired when hunting for his shot as a lead playmaker. Giddey is shooting 34% on pull-up triples, and his effective field goal percentage on all pull-up shots (39.1%) ranks in the bottom 20 of the 135 players with at least 100 attempts. Honing his jump shot will be critical to avoiding a slate of sagging defenses for much of his career.
Jonathan Kuminga, Warriors
Resolution: Gain Comfort as a Short Roller
I have an admitted soft spot for Kuminga, who is thriving as a cutter-and-switcher extraordinaire for a resurgent Warriors squad. His athleticism jumps off the screen, but look closer, and you see subtle hints of an increasingly comfortable player. Kuminga is attacking the weak-side with aplomb as defense crowds Steph Curry. He’s getting to the foul line at an impressive clip, and he’s holding his own defensively as a small-ball five. The next step is refinement. Kuminga will never be Draymond Green, but his ability to make functional passes in advantageous situations will be critical come playoff time. Both Curry and Klay Thompson will get trapped ad nauseum in the postseason, especially when one is on the bench. If Kuminga can attack 4-on-3 looks with ease, the Warriors could have a second undersized center making a major impact in the race for the Finals.
Franz Wagner, Magic
Resolution: Unleash Point Franz
Orlando is too invested in the development of Cole Anthony and Suggs (and rightfully so) to truly turn the keys over to Wagner, but I’d love to see the rookie from Michigan explore the outer limits of his game down the stretch. The 6' 9" forward is more than comfortable as a secondary ball-handler, and some of Orlando’s best offense comes with Wagner barreling down the floor in transition like late-peak Blake Griffin. Wagner is decisive off the catch. He’s an effective shooter at all three levels, and his end-to-end skills are matched by few players his size. Relegating Wagner to secondary status in the offense on the wing would be a mistake. For now, he holds the Magic’s most plausible path back to relevance.
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