Analysis and bets for Tuesday's NBA matchups featuring the new-look 76ers hosting the Celtics and the Suns welcoming the Clippers.
Last week’s trade deadline has teams around the league looking different. A few of the teams that made notable trades are in action Tuesday night.
In Philadelphia, the 76ers are hosting the surging Celtics, winners of an NBA-best eight in a row. Philly has been victorious in two out of the three games between the two franchises this season. And in Phoenix, the defending Western Conference Champion Suns, owners of the best record in the NBA, welcome the Clippers to the desert.
SI Betting editor Matt Ehalt joins me today as the guest picker to sort through these two matchups and make our Against the Spread, Over/Under and Prop (SO/UP) bets.
Season record: 91-91-2
Guest pickers: 71-101
Check the latest NBA Lines at SI Sportsbook
Chris Szagola/AP
Boston Celtics (33-25) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (34-22)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Celtics -2.5 (-110) | 76ers +1 (-110)
Moneyline: Celtics (-143) | 76ers (+120)
Total: Under 209.5 (-110) | Over 211.5 (-110)
Injuries: Celtics C Daniel Theiss—Day-to-Day; 76ers F Paul Milsap—Out; 76ers G James Harden—Out
Celtics Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 9-1
ATS Record: 28-28-2
O/U Record: 23-34-1
Points Per Game/Rank: 108.4/18
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 103.6/4
Boston last played on Sunday and logged a 105-95 win over the Hawks at home behind 38 points from Jayson Tatum. That win marked eight in a row for the Celtics and five in a row at home. Boston is steadily marching up the Eastern Conference standings and has not lost in February.
76ers Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 7-3
ATS Record: 28-28
O/U Record: 22-33-1
Points Per Game/Rank: 107.6/21
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 105.2/6
Philadelphia is short-handed at the moment with the recently acquired James Harden not yet in the lineup. The 76ers beat the Cavaliers, 103-93, on Saturday thanks to 40 points from MVP favorite Joel Embiid. This game wraps up a four-game homestand before it embarks on a three-game road trip, starting with the Bucks on Thursday.
Kyle Wood’s Bets:
Spread Pick: 76ers +2.5
Philadelphia leads the season series, 2-1, and is a rare home underdog. The 76ers have covered their last five games in which they were getting points, something that’s only happened twice in the new year. Boston’s win streak is impressive—the Hawks, Heat and Nuggets are among the teams they've toppled—but they have to fall at some point. The bulk of Boston’s wins come at home, where they're 20-10. But the C’s are 13-15 outside of Boston and they're the only top-six seed in either conference with a sub-.500 road record. Give me Embiid and the tear he’s on getting points at home.
Over/Under Pick: Under 209.5
This line keeps dropping and for good reason. Both teams’ games go under at some of the highest rates in the NBA and their defenses rank top six in scoring. During Boston’s winning streak, it has held six of eight opponents under 100 points and Philadelphia can say the same about its last two opponents. Despite the star power on either side, neither offense ranks in the top half of the league in scoring. It’s a low total, but I’m comfortable with the under.
Prop: Marcus Smart Over 11.5 Points (-112)
Smart has been much more involved in Boston’s offense over the past three games. He’s taken double-digit shots in each contest and scored 22, 22 and 13 points, respectively. Smart has three 20-point outings already this month, something he failed to do in all of January. His scoring numbers can be very much up and down, but his season average is still above 11.5 (11.8) and I’m encouraged by his recent involvement, even with the addition of Derrick White addition.
Guest Picker Matt Ehalt’s Bets:
Spread Pick: Philadelphia +2.5
This line scars me. The 76ers are getting points at home? Yes, I know Boston is hot but they're not the Suns. It seems like everything is saying to grab the 76ers and the points, but that's what has me nervous. Let's back the 76ers at home since the Celtics are not a great road team. But I'm not overly confident in this pick.
Over/Under Pick: Under 209.5
Two teams whose games cash the under a majority of the time makes for an easy selection. Both teams play solid defense, and the 76ers being short-handed means they likely won't score like they normally can. The Celtics could be due for a letdown. We'll follow the numbers here and bet on a defensive-minded affair.
Prop: Tyrese Maxey Over 16.5 points (-104)
Maxey had six points in the 76ers' loss to the Celtics in December but torched them for 23 points at home in January. With the 76ers missing pieces due to the James Harden trade, he'll need to have a big effort tonight. He's averaging 20 points across his last two games, and the 76ers will need him to take down a hot team.
Mark J. Terrill/AP
Los Angeles Clippers (29-30) vs. Phoenix Suns (46-10)
Time: 10 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Clippers +12.5 (+100) | Suns -12.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Clippers (+650) | Suns (-1000)
Total: Under 223.5 (-110) | Over 223.5 (-110)
Injuries: Clippers G Luke Kennard—Out; Clippers F Norman Powell—Out; Suns G Cameron Payne—Out; Suns G Landry Shamet—Out
Clippers Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 5-5
ATS Record: 28-31
O/U Record: 29-29-1
Points Per Game/Rank: 106.4/24
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 107.7/12
Los Angeles scored a 119-104 win against the Warriors at home on Monday night. That marks two in a row for the Clippers, who have split the season series, 1-1, with the Suns. Somehow, L.A. keeps stringing wins together with a different role player stepping up seemingly every night as the team’s two All-Stars remain sidelined.
Suns Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 9-1
ATS Record: 32-24
O/U Record: 28-28
Points Per Game/Rank: 113.7/3
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 105.4/7
Phoenix demolished the Magic, 132-105, over the weekend, but their more impressive showing came on Thursday against the Bucks when they handed the defending champs a 131-107 defeat. The Suns have won five in a row and maintain their chokehold on the best record in basketball.
Kyle Wood’s Bets:
Spread Pick: Suns -12.5
The Clippers are 3-6 on the second night of back-to-backs this season. The Suns, meanwhile, haven’t suited up since Saturday and are the healthier team regardless. That’s the main reason why I like Phoenix to cover this sizable spread. The Suns are also better than .500 ATS when favored by 10 or more points this season. Phoenix recently destroyed the Bucks at home and they were near full health, something the Clippers have never been able to say this season. This game won’t be close.
Over/Under Pick: Over 223.5
Clippers games hit the over 50% of the time, which is surprising considering their below-average offense and above-average defense. The Suns similarly see their games go over half the time, though their offense deserves much of the credit for that stat. Given what Phoenix has done offensively as of late (119.8 PPG on its five-game winning streak) I like the over against L.A.
Prop: Suns Total Points Over 118.5 (-112)
Phoenix averages 114.9 PPG at home this season, more than a full point more than its season average. The Clippers are generally strong on defense, but they have allowed a few offensive explosions in recent weeks (135 to the Grizzlies and 137 to the Bucks in consecutive games). The Suns are on a tear and they can get into the 120s at home.
Guest picker Matt Ehalt’s Bets:
Spread Pick: Suns -12.5
I don't care about the number. The Clippers are on the second night of a back-to-back following a big win against the Warriors. Yeah, I think the energy level just might not be there tonight in the desert. Go with the best team in basketball.
Over/Under Pick: Over 223.5
Look at what the Suns have done recently on offense, and tonight they get a team on the second night of a back-to-back. The Suns should have no problems helping the Clippers get above this total. Even a blowout can easily top this number.
Prop: DeAndre Ayton Over 15.5 points (-116)
I'm all-in on the Suns tonight. Ayton missed the previous two games against the Clippers, but this number is less than his season average. He averaged 22 points across his last two games, and has topped this prop three times in the last five games.
DFS Value Plays
(Prices based on 7:30 p.m. main slate)
PG Derrick White, Celtics (FD: $6,100 | DK: $5,600)
SG/SF Terance Mann, Clippers ($6,000 | $4,600)
SG/SF Desmond Bane, Grizzlies ($6,300 | $6,900)
PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies ($7,900 | $7,200)
C/PF Jarret Allen, Cavaliers ($7,400 | $7,600)
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