Analysis and picks for Thursday night’s games between the Celtics and Nets and Grizzlies and Timberwolves as the NBA returns from the All-Star break.
It’s officially the home stretch of the NBA season. The All-Star break was a nice reprieve from the day-to-day drama that dominates the league—not that it even really stopped with explosive comments from LeBron James and J.J. Reddick lighting up Zion Williamson—and it all resumes Thursday night.
Putting the runaway Suns aside, both conference playoff races are tight. Four seemingly playoff-bound teams take the court Thursday night and they are the focus of the NBA Spread, Over/Under and Props (‘SO/UP’) picks column.
The Celtics, who went on a lengthy winning streak before the break, travel to Brooklyn to take on the Nets. Boston is at full strength and Brooklyn is anything but with Kyrie Irving ineligible to play and Ben Simmons, Kevin Durant and even recently acquired guard Goran Dragic not yet ready to play. And in Minnesota, the Timberwolves host the Grizzlies in a battle of two of the bigger surprise teams in the Western Conference.
Wilton Jackson joins me as the guest picker for this pair of games.
Season record: 91-97-2
Guest pickers: 71-107
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John Minchillo/AP
Boston Celtics (34-26) vs. Brooklyn Nets (31-28)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Celtics -7.5 (-118) | Nets +7.5 (+100)
Moneyline: Celtics (-350) | Nets (+275)
Total: Under 214.5 (-110) | Over 213 (-110)
Injuries: Nets F Kevin Durant—Out; Nets G Kyrie Irving—Out (not injury-related); Nets F Ben Simmons—Out (not injury-related); Nets G Goran Dragic—Out
Celtics Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 9-1
ATS Record: 29-29-2
O/U Record: 25-34-1
Points Per Game/Rank: 108.9/17
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 103.5/3
The Celtics matched the Suns as the hottest team in the NBA before the All-Star break. Boston rattled off nine wins in a row before losing to the Pistons, 112-111, on Feb. 16. That stretch catapulted the C’s into the top-six in the East and they’re closing in on the top five teams who are all separated by less than three games.
Nets Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 2-8
ATS Record: 22-36-1
O/U Record: 29-29-1
Points Per Game/Rank: 110.8/11
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 110.8/19
Brooklyn stopped the bleeding with a pair of wins last week, but its fall to play-in tournament range was precipitous. The Nets lost 11 straight while dealing with absences from Kevin Durant, James Harden—who was traded to the 76ers—and Kyrie Irving, who’s unable to play home games due to his vaccination status. It will take some time before the stars of this roster take the court together, a process made more difficult by the number of home games Brookly has left on its schedule.
Kyle Wood’s Bets:
Spread Pick: Celtics -7.5
Brooklyn is shorthanded. Boston is not. And, honestly, shorthanded doesn’t even really describe the Nets without Durant, Irving and the recently acquired Ben Simmons. Just a few weeks ago, the Celtics obliterated the Nets, 126-91, in Brooklyn. The Nets’ leading scorer in that game, Jevon Carter, was recently waived. Brooklyn’s starless version of the roster improved with Seth Curry and Andre Drummond arriving in the Simmons-Harden deal, but that’s not nearly enough to counter Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Boston’s ferocious defense. This should be an easy Celtics' win.
Over/Under Pick: Under 214.5
Boston routinely holds opponents under 100 points—seven of its last 10 opponents have failed to break triple digits. The Celtics have the second-best defensive rating in the NBA and, as previously noted, Brooklyn is without its top-end talent. The biggest threat to this game going over is if Boston has a big night offensively, the way it did when these teams last met. Even with that outburst, that game barely went over the total of 214.5. I expect the Celtics to keep the Nets in check and have a good but not great showing on offense to keep this game from going over.
Prop: Seth Curry Over 15.5 Points (-116)
Someone has to score for the Nets, right? Curry, understandably, has the highest projected point total for any Net. He’s topped 15.5 points twice in three games with them. The 18 shots Curry hoisted in his first game with the team matched the second-most he’s attempted all season and his three-point shot has been falling lately.
Guest picker Wilton Jackson’s picks:
Spread Pick: Celtics -7.5
Harden is no longer in Brooklyn. Durant is still recovering from injury. The Nets newly acquired pieces in Dragic and Simmons will not be in action. With Thursday’s game being at the Barclays Center—although this could be changing soon—that means no Irving. This is a Nets team—one that lost 12 of its last 14 games before the All-Star break—facing a Celtics’ squad that was surging in the right direction, winning 11 of its last 13 games before the break. I expect the Celtics to build on this momentum in their first game back on the hardwood, especially with the return of Marcus Smart and Robert Williams to the lineup. I like the Celtics to cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick: Over 214.5
I feel like I am taking a slight gamble going with the over on this one. Since Jan. 1, Boston has the 10th-best offensive rating in the NBA. In the two previous matchups against Brooklyn, the C’s averaged 115 points and scored more than 120 points—which included quality production from Brown, Tatum, Smart and Williams in the second matchup. Without Durant this season, the Nets are averaging 109.1 points per game, 2.7 points less per game. When you do the simple math, it looks as though this game should easily surpass 213. But, in the Feb. 8 contest between two teams in which the Nets were without Harden, Durant or Irving, Brooklyn only scored 91 points in comparison to the Nets dropping 123 in the Nov. 24 matchup. But, staying on a positive note—well, kind of—the Nets averaged 117.3 points in their last ten games that included eight losses. I’m hoping to see a strong outing by two additional C’s players finishing in double figures along with Brown and Tatum that should put the total number of points over 214.5, even if Brooklyn is held to less than 100 points.
Prop: Jayson Tatum Under 27.5 Points (-118)
In Tatum's last five games before the All-Star break, he averaged 26.2 ppg and is currently averaging 25.7 points for the season. If all goes as planned with Brown, Williams, Smart and others playing their roles and the offense is consistently productive throughout the game, Tatum will not have to score more than 27 points. At best, he scores anywhere between 20 to 24.
Brandon Dill/AP
Memphis Grizzlies (41-19) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (31-28)
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Spread: Grizzlies -2.5 (-110) | Timberwolves +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Grizzlies (-133) | Timberwolves (+110)
Total: Under 239.5 (-110) | Over 239.5 (-110)
Injuries: Grizzlies F Dillon Brooks—Out
Grizzlies Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 8-2
ATS Record: 40-20
O/U Record: 32-25-3
Points Per Game/Rank: 113.8/2
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 109/14
Memphis saw its six-game winning streak end last Wednesday despite 44 points from Ja Morant against the Trail Blazers. The Grizzlies are still in phenomenal position in the West, with a healthy lead over the Jazz for the No. 3 seed. Memphis has not lost consecutive games in 2022 and its offense has ascended to one of the league’s best.
Timberwolves Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 7-3
ATS Record: 30-28-1
O/U Record: 36-23
Points Per Game/Rank: 113.2/5
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 111.7/21
Minnesota limped into the break, going 2-3 over its last five games and putting up a paltry 91 points in a loss to the Raptors on Feb. 16. The Timberwolves are still pushing the Nuggets for the sixth seed in the West, though, behind the play of their Big 3 of Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell.
Kyle Wood’s Bets:
Spread Pick: Grizzlies -2.5
Memphis has the best record Against the Spread in the NBA, according to TeamRankings.com. The Grizzlies have covered (and won) eight of their last 10 games and each of their last five games as a road favorite. This season series has played out strangely—Memphis won two of the meetings by single digits and the Timberwolves scored a 43-point win. Minnesota’s home record is better than its road record, but the team isn’t a juggernaut on its own court. The Grizzlies are playing better basketball right now than their counterparts up north and that continues on Thursday.
Over/Under Pick: Under 239.5
This is a meeting between two top-five scoring offenses and both teams’ games go over more than 50% of the time. Grizzlies games have hit the over eight times in a row and the Timberwolves have done so in eight of their last 10 games. I think that trend stops Thursday. This is a very, very high over/under, and it’s also one both teams have surpassed in recent weeks. Coming off the All-Star break, I don’t expect the offensive rhythm either team was in to carry over. These teams can clearly both score with ease and have multiple players capable of going for 20 or even 30-plus points. That can still happen and one or both of these teams fail to break 120 and keep this outing under.
Prop: Steven Adams Over 7.5 Points (-108)
This is admittedly a boring bet. It’s also one that would have cashed in four of Adams’ last five games. He’s not known for putting the ball in the basket, but he’s been doing that and a little bit of everything for Memphis this month. Adams is averaging a double-double this month and his 6.1 field goal attempts per game in February are a season-high. He’s having his best month on the boards as well, which leads to more opportunities for putbacks in the paint.
Guest picker Wilton Jackson’s Bets:
Spread Pick: Grizzlies -2.5
It’s hard not to respect and honestly appreciate the work and the level that the Grizzlies are playing at right now. Memphis went 8-2 in its last 10 games before the All-Star break and is 22-5 since Christmas, tied for best in the league with the Suns. This will be a close affair but I give the edge to Memphis. The Timberwolves will obviously prioritize slowing down Morant, which means they will have to limit him from scoring in any area on the court but especially in points in the paint and his ability to rebound and get second-chance points. Morant leads the league in points in the paint and the Grizzlies lead the league in points in the paint, fast break points and second-chance points. Minnesota ranks 15th in the league in points percentage (62.5) allowed less than five feet from the basket. In the three prior matches this season, Minnesota’s lone victory against Memphis came at home. Morant had a bad shooting night, and the Grizzlies were without Dillon Brooks and De’Anthony Melton. While Brooks will be out, expect Morant to have a strong output as well as Desmond Bane, Steven Adams, Jaren Jackson Jr. and the Grizzlies’ bench to play their roles effectively. Memphis is also a top-two team when it comes to winning games in the clutch. I like the Grizzlies to cover the spread, a franchise who sits atop the league in this category.
Over/Under Pick: Under 239.5
I mentioned this game will be close. This matchup will also feature a lot of points. Memphis, which is tied for first in the league with Charlotte (113.8) in points per game this season, has averaged 112 points against Minnesota in the series this season. The Grizzlies have also averaged 126.7 through seven games so far in February. Considering the Grizzlies’ production in February, in conjunction with the number of points Minnesota has averaged against Memphis this season (121) and the Timberwolves average number of points per game overall (113.2), it is easy to say this game’s scoring total will be higher than 239. But, with each game this season, the combined scoring output between both teams went down with the last two matches totaling less than a combined 239 points. I am going on a limb to say the Grizzlies' defense, second-chance points and rebounding efforts will limit some scoring opportunities for Minnesota. However, I don’t think Memphis will score more than 126 points in this game which makes me lean more toward the under in this one.
Prop: Ja Morant Under 28.5 Points (-102)
Morant is averaging 26.8 points per game and is one of three players across the league averaging 26 points, five rebounds and six assists per game (LeBron James and Luka Doncic). However, against Minnesota this season, Morant is only averaging 20 points per game. As we have already seen, Morant does not have to be the high point man for Memphis to win games. Kudos to the Grizzlies' unselfish play and desire to play together to win. On Thursday, Morant will finish anywhere between 20-23 points in the contest.
DFS Value Plays
(Prices based on 7 p.m. main slate)
PG Derrick White, Celtics (FD: $6,500 | DK: $6,300)
SG/PG Josh Giddey, Thunder ($7,400 | $8,400)
SG/SF Josh Hart, Trail Blazers ($7,000 | $7,200)
PF Aaron Gordon, Nuggets ($6,100 | $5,600)
PF/C Al Horford, Celtics ($6,100 | $5,700)
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